Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The severe weather threat for this afternoon and evening still
exists, but with surface temperatures still in the 40s for most
areas low level instability is lacking which is a big hurdle to
overcome. The southern portions of the mid-state still have the
best chance as the slightly warmer air across northern Alabama
where mid-upper 50s temperatures with low-mid 50s dewpoints are
noted might creep in through the evening hours. VIS satellite
imagery indicates cloud cover is thinner from central Mississippi
through central Alabama, so mixing there has been better. NAM/GFS
forecast soundings for today depicted a strong inversion that only
gives way when the line of storms moves through this evening, so
a lack of building low level instability and marginal shear will
not be enough for a significant severe weather event. The concern
for flash flooding this evening still exists as rainfall rates of
2 inches per hour will be likely, and with saturated grounds
runoff will be significant so smaller creeks and streams will rise
quickly. Current radar trends over western Tennessee show mostly
40-50dBZ, but the precipitation band is narrow and progressive so
rainfall amounts around an inch to possibly 2 inches can be
expected, with amounts in excess of 2 inches less likely.

After the front pushes through tonight some lingering light rain
shower activity, mostly cloudy skies, and stiff northwest winds
ushering in cold air will make for an unpleasant winter day on
Thursday. The cold air advection continues into Friday, where
highs will struggle to break 40 degrees, and lows Friday morning
and Saturday morning could bottom out in the upper teens. A return
flow gradually develops and light rainfall could return as early
as Sunday, but more likely on Monday and Tuesday as isentropic
ascent and moisture increase. Next week does have some uncertainty
with just how much rain is possible, but the trend with both the
ECMWF and GFS has been for lesser amounts of rainfall which will
help our overall flood risk to continue to decrease through the
week. Both models show a front pushing through at some point, and
the other trend to watch is how soon the cold air advection
arrives and when the moisture leaves. It is possible some of the
precipitation may be in a non-liquid form, so for those wishing
for more winter be sure to watch this trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR to MVFR conditions across Middle TN terminals as we deal with
the latest system to move through the region. Some LIFR cigs are
likely before sunrise Thursday, but should improve back to MVFR by
late morning.

Winds will be gusty (30-35 kts) on this line of showers moving
through at issuance, but should back down to gusts of 20-25
overnight.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Cumberland-Fentress-
Grundy-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Van Buren-Warren-White.

Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......05
AVIATION........Unger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
516 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-131245-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
516 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase today. By late
this afternoon and evening, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly across southern middle Tennessee and the Plateau.
Damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two will be possible.
Additionally, given the already wet conditions, flash flooding
and the flooding of rivers and streams will be an ongoing
possibility as well. Keep in mind, A Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for the mid state during this time period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Wednesday afternoon
and into Thursday morning for potential flooding and
for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CST WED FEB 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW MURFREESBORO       35.88N  86.43W
02/12/2020                   RUTHERFORD         TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POLICE REPORTED TREES DOWN,SOME BLOCKING THE BARFIELD
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000127

FBORDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 PM CST WED FEB 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW CHAPEL HILL       35.59N  86.79W
02/12/2020                   MARSHALL           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS MARSHALL COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000128

FBORDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
657 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

TNZ032>034-064>066-078-080-130145-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-Van Buren TN-
De Kalb TN-Warren TN-White TN-
657 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OVERTON...WESTERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB...VAN BUREN...NORTHEASTERN
WARREN...WHITE...EASTERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHWESTERN FENTRESS COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CST...

At 656 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Algood to 9 miles east of Smithville to
McMinnville. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cookeville, McMinnville, Crossville, Sparta, Spencer, Algood,
Monterey, Pleasant Hill, Doyle, Grimsley, Hamptons Crossroads, Bakers
Crossroads, Virgin Falls State Natural Area, Rock Island State Park,
Rickman, Indian Rock Lake, Clarkrange, Crawford and Fall Creek Falls
State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 288 and 319.

LAT...LON 3595 8505 3577 8517 3576 8526 3572 8527
      3564 8535 3561 8584 3595 8568 3628 8536
      3627 8488 3621 8491 3615 8491 3614 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 270DEG 36KT 3624 8537 3595 8565 3569 8580

Schaper

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
701 PM CST WED FEB 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TULLAHOMA               35.37N  86.22W
02/12/2020                   COFFEE             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN SOUTHERN COFFEE
            COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY EAST LINCOLN STREET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000129

FBORDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
703 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

TNZ011-033-034-130145-
Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-
703 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OVERTON...
NORTHWESTERN PICKETT AND FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CST...

At 703 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Byrdstown to 8 miles north of Monterey.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Byrdstown, Allardt, Grimsley, Crawford, Pall Mall and
Pickett State Park.

LAT...LON 3639 8469 3637 8470 3638 8472 3637 8473
      3635 8473 3635 8474 3634 8474 3633 8477
      3630 8480 3629 8487 3628 8488 3626 8488
      3627 8533 3662 8509 3660 8479 3650 8472
      3643 8469 3641 8466 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 265DEG 42KT 3658 8509 3625 8528

Schaper

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