Wind Advisory 10, NWS Omaha, NE

Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Burt County, NE, Cass County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
647 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020

Primary concern today is the potential for wind gusts up to 45 mph
as tightly wound surface low currently along the SD/MN border
moves into northwest and eventually central IA through the day.
Winds gusts to 45 knots at Huron, SD, and 38 knots at Mitchell SD.
These stronger northwest winds will move down the Missouri River
valley today. Currently have gusts up to 45 mph today, supported
by momentum transfer in a well mixed boundary layer, within the
tight pressure gradient associated with the low, combined with
unidirectional winds. Right now, this is right at the lower limit
of a wind advisory, thus will highlight in our HWO and social
media for now.

Any precipitation associated with the surface low will likely
stay across central IA today, but the western periphery of
rain could impact our western IA counties. Otherwise, it will be
a little warmer today, highs mostly in the 60s. Although Harlan,
IA may only reach 59, and Fairbury, NE may reach 70.

The next trough which is currently along the US and Canadian
border will move through the area tonight. We could see the
beginning influence of that in northeast NE late this afternoon
with an increasing chance of showers. Those rain chances spread
across the forecast area overnight, although any rain amounts will
be less than one tenth. While the main shortwave is south of the
area by daybreak Wednesday, the Missouri River remains in a shear
vorticity area aloft, and there remains a slight chance of showers
or sprinkles still Wednesday morning.

The next chance of rain comes Thursday into Thursday night as the
next trough moves out of the northern Rockies. This will boost
pops back to the 40-60% range, with continued cool highs in the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Of note, colder air coming in behind this
system could send lows into the mid and lower 30s north of I-80
Thursday night into Friday morning.. Northerly winds will probably
remain strong enough to prevent any widespread frost.

Friday should be a dry with continued northerly winds, but still
pretty cool with highs from 57 to 60. Friday night, with high
pressure shifting overhead and winds diminishing with clear skies,
there is more of a concern for some patchy frost with lows in the
lower to mid 30s, so heads up for the local gardens on the colder
nighttime temperatures late in the week both Thursday and Friday
nights.

Another quick moving clipper appears to move through the area
Saturday night bringing one more chance of rain, but generally dry
Sunday, and then more rain for Monday. Temperatures still remaining
on the cooler side in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but at least
nighttime lows will be a little warmer in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020

Strong northwest winds expected for the next 12 hours (12Z through
00Z). By 13Z, winds should start gusting at all 3 TAF sites. Wind
gusts will peak around 18Z near 35kts. Winds will slowly diminish
dropping to near 10kts by 06/00Z.

There is a chance for rain later today with the best chance near
06/01Z. Short range models have become less favorable to rain
this evening. If rain were to occur, it would be on the lighter
side. Day shift will monitor and update TAFs if they become
confident in rain chances.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Fajman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
345 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-052245-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
345 AM CDT Tue May 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Northwest winds will gust up to 45 mph today as an area of low
pressure moves through Iowa. There is also a chance of isolated
non severe thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska late this afternoon
and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Patchy frost may occur on Friday, Saturday, and Monday mornings.
The potential for a killing freeze appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed today or tonight.