Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
233 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Thursday - Thursday night:

Surface observations currently show an approaching cold front
draped from northeast Nebraska to the southwest through Columbus
Nebraska. This front will be the focus of developing thunderstorms
this afternoon. A few of these storms could be strong to severe.
Ample CAPE values of 2000+ j/Kg is currently situated across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Shear, however will be a
limiting factor this afternoon. 0-6 km bulk shear values will only
be around 20 knots ahead of this front. This should limit much
potential of any longer duration sustainable storm. Expect storms
this afternoon to pulse up quickly, then quickly pulse down
leading to a brief damaging wind threat. Hail potential will be
quite limited today with very high freezing levels ~14,000 AGL.
Heavy rain will be another hazard with storms this afternoon. This
mornings sounding showed precipitable water values of 1.30".
Model soundings show this increasing through the afternoon as
moistures advects into the advects into the area. 1-2" will be
possible by the time storms come to an end Thursday night.

Friday - Friday night:

Most storms are expected to come to an end
by Friday morning, however, showers and thunderstorms may linger
near the Kansas and Missouri borders. This will be enhanced by an
approaching shortwave moving through Friday evening. Severe
weather is not expected, however, heavy rain may be possible again
across southeast Nebraska with 0.5-1.00" possible. As far as
temperatures go, expect much cooler conditions with most places
remaining around 80 or below.

Saturday and beyond:

The pattern will remain wet through Monday with
on and off chances of showers and thunderstorms as a series of
waves slide through the area. By the end of the weekend, some
locations could see up to 4" of rain including any rain that falls
tonight. For now, any flooding looks minimal as rain will fall
over a longer period, but we will keep an eye on this in the
coming days. Temperatures will remain at to below normal for the
next few days, topping out in the mid to lower 80s. Dryer
conditions should return by Tuesday, however long range models
continue to indicate some additional chances into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist
for the next few hours at OMA and LNK. Otherwise, expect
increasing chances for some showers and thunderstorms to develop
this afternoon by 21z and move east impacting OMA and LNK through
the evening hours. OFK will likely see a few showers and
thunderstorms but these will quickly move east of the area this
evening. These storms will linger through the morning hours at OMA
and LNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...HB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
357 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-191100-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
357 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

There is a marginal risk for severe weather today. A cold front
will slowly move through the area leading to rain, and possibly
some isolated strong storms. Heavy rain and strong winds are the
most likely threats. The time frame for severe weather will be
from now through 10pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

There are several chances for rain through the weekend which
could lead to elevated stream levels and a risk for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
429 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             1 SSE HICKMAN           40.60N 96.62W
06/18/2020  E0.75 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

            ACCOMPANIED BY ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
443 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             HICKMAN                 40.62N 96.63W
06/18/2020  E0.88 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

            ACCOMPANIED BY 45 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
457 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HICKMAN                 40.62N 96.63W
06/18/2020                   LANCASTER          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE TO FIREWORKS TENT IN HICKMAN AS WELL
            AS BROKEN TREE LIMBS.

&&