Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
351 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Main forecast concerns are thunderstorms, chance of severe storms
and potential for rain amounts high enough to cause flooding. Will
issue a Flash Flood Watch for 4 pm today until Noon Monday for
southern parts of the area.

MCS continues to move east with development on southern end. Added
some counties to Severe Watch until 6 am. Storms should die out
toward mid morning as low level jet continues to veer and will
weaken later. That leaves a probable lull in strong convection
for late morning and early afternoon. Storms could again fire up
in the area mid to late afternoon. Any outflow boundaries may
enhance storms. 0-1 km MLCAPE values from the RAP13 model increase
to near 3000 J/kg this afternoon and evening across southeast NE
and southwest IA, with 0-6 km bulk shear ranging from 20 to 40
knots. Shear should be the lowest near the MO border and highest
in areas west of a line from Wayne to David City. The atmosphere
will remain quite moist today and tonight with PW values up to
near 1.5 inches. Heavy rain will be possible with many locations
getting 1 to 3 inches. Locally higher amounts will be possible.
Main severe threat is currently expected to be before 8 am today
and then again probably 4 pm to midnight tonight. Mid level height
falls should affect the area tonight, with shortwave energy
moving in from the southwest.

Pattern will remain active into Monday, possibly Tuesday. Chances
start to drop for Wednesday, then it looks drier from Thursday
into Sunday as the large scale pattern changes. Closed low sets up
over TX and OK, with main westerlies across the northern tier of
the US. A ridge at 500 mb should develop over the Four Corners
Region then try to build northeast toward our area by Sunday.

AFD shortened due to ongoing severe weather early this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

An MCS evolving over central NE will progress through portions of
eastern NE overnight into Sunday morning. KOFK is most likely to
be impacted by this system with variably gusty winds and potential
for MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities. KOMA and KLNK may
receive more of a glancing blow toward daybreak Sunday. Ahead of
the MCS, a strong low-level jet will result in LLWS at KOMA and
KLNK overnight. Another round of thunderstorms is expected late
Sunday afternoon and evening at KOMA and KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday morning for
     NEZ042-050-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday morning for
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
425 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-242330-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
425 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving through parts of the
area early this morning. Some of these are producing winds over
60 mph and hail. The storms should weaken and generally end mid
to late morning across the area.

New storm development is expected mid to late this afternoon and
into the evening. Storms could be severe, with large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rain. The area with the highest chance of
severe weather is generally southeast of a line from David City to
Onawa. The main window of time for severe weather later today
is from 4 pm to midnight. A flash flood watch is also in effect
for parts of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa from 4 pm today
until noon Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Storms could continue to produce pockets of heavy rain overnight
and into Monday morning.

Thunderstorms could occur over parts of the area at times from
Monday afternoon into Wednesday, especially in southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa. At this time, the chance of organized severe
storms from Monday into Wednesday seems fairly low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be needed this afternoon and evening.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
417 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW WEST POINT        41.85N 96.74W
05/24/2020  M57 MPH          CUMING             NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC WEATHER STATION.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
435 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

NEZ050>053-065>067-078-089-241000-
Saunders NE-Cass NE-Sarpy NE-Seward NE-Gage NE-Butler NE-
Lancaster NE-Douglas NE-Saline NE-
435 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SARPY...LANCASTER...
EASTERN SEWARD...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...NORTHEASTERN SALINE...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...SAUNDERS...NORTHWESTERN GAGE AND WESTERN CASS
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

At 434 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Wahoo to Crete. Movement
was east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln, Seward, Crete, Wahoo, Gretna, Waverly, Ashland, Milford,
Wilber, Hickman, Yutan, Bennet, Firth, Dorchester, Valparaiso, Mead,
Greenwood, Cortland, Brainard and Weston.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 379 and
430.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4052 9721 4133 9695 4127 9617 4078 9643
      4078 9646 4072 9646 4044 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 282DEG 22KT 4125 9669 4064 9696

Albright

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW LINCOLN            40.87N 96.74W
05/24/2020  M68 MPH          LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
511 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 AM     TSTM WND GST     LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
05/24/2020  M51 MPH          LANCASTER          NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&