Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Omaha, NE

Fremont County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Boone County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Platte County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Washington County, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1133 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

Forecast Summary:

Our string of above-normal temperatures should remain intact at
least through the weekend when we may see some 70s. The only real
weather concern through then will be very windy conditions on
Thursday as precipitation chances hold off until early next week.

Today through Friday:

Primary mid level flow will remain northwest today before a clipper
system rolls into the Great Lakes Region and sharpens a trough just
to our east on Thursday. Ahead of this system, a return to southwest
surface winds is forecast this afternoon, providing favorable
downslope warming component under nearly full sunshine. We should
see highs a category or two above Tuesday's readings.

Cold front associated with clipper is scheduled into our northern
CWA later this evening, then progressing south of Nebraska and
southwest Iowa by Thursday morning. First of all, forcing for ascent
and thus precipitation chances will be maximized north and northeast
of our area, though increase in mid level clouds and perhaps a few
sprinkles could affect our northern counties. Attention turns to
increasing winds Thursday as strong subsidence behind cold front,
low level instability and unidirectional winds with height promote
deep mixing and efficient downward momentum transfer of strong
northwest winds at top of boundary layer. Gridded/MOS guidance,
though painting sustained winds around 30 mph, may be underplaying
things a bit as forecast soundings suggest average speeds over 30
mph and gusts to 50 mph are likely.

See Fire Weather section below for more info on that potential
Thursday.

Friday through Sunday:

Winds die down Thursday night as surface high pressure settles into
the region. That high slides east on Friday allowing southerly winds
to return. Meanwhile mid level ridging begins to build into the
Plains, maximizing heights on Saturday before ridge axis shifts east
by Sunday. After a cold start in the 20s under surface ridge Friday
morning, our warming trend into the weekend will commence by Friday
afternoon when highs reach the 50s. Then a very warm atmosphere
under ridge along with plenty of sunshine will push temperatures
toward 70 over the weekend. Sunday's highs may be tempered somewhat
if cloud cover thickens faster than advertised ahead of approaching
mid level wave. GFS remains the most aggressive in bringing wave
into the region, even squeezing out precipitation Sunday afternoon.
Have followed slower ECMWF again this morning in this regard,
keeping precipitation out of the forecast until Sunday night.

Monday and Tuesday:

Mid level shortwave ejecting into the Plains Sunday night will bring
a fairly decent shot of precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Most
of this should fall as rain, but colder air spilling into the
region behind wave could turn rain to snow in our north before
ending. Cooler temps follow for Monday and Tuesday when highs
swing back toward normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light
southwest winds will increase to 10-15 kt this afternoon and
continue into this evening. A front will move through the area
tonight with the southwest winds switching to northwest at to
10-20 kt with higher gusts. The northwest winds will strengthen
further by late Thursday morning. Low-level wind shear is expected
tonight both ahead of the surface front and behind it.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

The strong winds and deep mixing leading to lower surface dew points
and relative humidity will also increase our fire danger on
Thursday, especially given the lack of precipitation over the last
month leading to dry fuels. Contemplated a fire weather watch for
parts of our area, but after consulting with neighboring offices,
will give it another model run before pulling the trigger, and
highlight wind and fire risk through social media and hazardous
weather outlooks.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Dergan
AVIATION...Mead
FIRE WEATHER...Dergan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1133 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-050745-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1133 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Very high fire danger will exist this afternoon in northeast
Nebraska with high danger in southeast Nebraska. Relative
humidities dropping to lower than 30 percent, southwest winds
gusting over 20 mph, along with dry grasses, will lead to the
potentially dangerous fire weather conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Extreme fire danger is forecast for Thursday for eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa with strong northwest winds and low humidity.
Fire weather conditions could develop Saturday and Sunday as high
temperatures climb into the upper 60s. This time, they'll be
accompanied by gusty southerly winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.