Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Omaha, NE

839 
WGUS73 KOAX 190723
FFSOAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
223 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

NEC067-095-191015-
/O.CON.KOAX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200619T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson NE-Gage NE-
223 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT FOR
JEFFERSON AND CENTRAL GAGE COUNTIES...

At 221 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.  Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar estimates 2 to 7 inches of rain over the warned area 
         in the last 6 hours, with an additional 1 to 3 inches 
         possible in the next 2 hours

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beatrice, Fairbury, Wymore, Plymouth, Blue Springs, Diller, Daykin,
Endicott, Filley, Jansen, Virginia, Harbine, Alexandria State
Recreation Area, Rock Creek Station State Historical Park, Cub Creek
Recreational Area, Crystal Springs Campground, Camp Jefferson and
Rockford State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 9737 4035 9737 4035 9692 4036 9691
      4035 9646 4013 9646 4007 9650 4006 9714

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Albright

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1148 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Thursday - Thursday night:

Surface observations currently show an approaching cold front
draped from northeast Nebraska to the southwest through Columbus
Nebraska. This front will be the focus of developing thunderstorms
this afternoon. A few of these storms could be strong to severe.
Ample CAPE values of 2000+ j/Kg is currently situated across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Shear, however will be a
limiting factor this afternoon. 0-6 km bulk shear values will only
be around 20 knots ahead of this front. This should limit much
potential of any longer duration sustainable storm. Expect storms
this afternoon to pulse up quickly, then quickly pulse down
leading to a brief damaging wind threat. Hail potential will be
quite limited today with very high freezing levels ~14,000 AGL.
Heavy rain will be another hazard with storms this afternoon. This
mornings sounding showed precipitable water values of 1.30".
Model soundings show this increasing through the afternoon as
moistures advects into the advects into the area. 1-2" will be
possible by the time storms come to an end Thursday night.

Friday - Friday night:

Most storms are expected to come to an end
by Friday morning, however, showers and thunderstorms may linger
near the Kansas and Missouri borders. This will be enhanced by an
approaching shortwave moving through Friday evening. Severe
weather is not expected, however, heavy rain may be possible again
across southeast Nebraska with 0.5-1.00" possible. As far as
temperatures go, expect much cooler conditions with most places
remaining around 80 or below.

Saturday and beyond:

The pattern will remain wet through Monday with
on and off chances of showers and thunderstorms as a series of
waves slide through the area. By the end of the weekend, some
locations could see up to 4" of rain including any rain that falls
tonight. For now, any flooding looks minimal as rain will fall
over a longer period, but we will keep an eye on this in the
coming days. Temperatures will remain at to below normal for the
next few days, topping out in the mid to lower 80s. Dryer
conditions should return by Tuesday, however long range models
continue to indicate some additional chances into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Thunderstorm activity continues to diminish across the area
tonight. Will keep mention through 8Z Friday in Lincoln... 10Z
Friday in Omaha. KOFK will remain dry.

KOFK will continue with VFR conditions through the TAF period.
MVFR conditions hold through the TAF period for KLNK and KOMA as
another round of thunderstorms is possible on Friday afternoon and
evening. The threat isn't great, so went with PROB30 at both
locations for situational awareness.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
848 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-191600-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
848 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The severe threat has diminished across the area this evening.
Scattered rain and thunderstorms will continue overnight. Some
heavy rain is expected in parts of extreme southeastern Nebraska
and southwestern Iowa. Up to 4" is possible and could produce
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

There are several chances for rain through the weekend which
could lead to elevated stream levels and a risk for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

tsn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
929 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CLATONIA            40.47N 96.89W
06/18/2020                   GAGE               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CENTER PIVOT OVERTURNED.

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WYMORE                  40.12N 96.67W
06/18/2020                   GAGE               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
936 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HICKMAN                 40.62N 96.63W
06/18/2020                   LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

            1 FOOT DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HICKMAN                 40.62N 96.63W
06/18/2020                   LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

            MINOR STREET FLOODING IN TOWN. 4.5 INCHES OF
            RAIN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
951 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E HICKMAN             40.62N 96.57W
06/18/2020  M6.15 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

&&

TSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
956 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW VIRGINIA           40.26N 96.52W
06/18/2020                   GAGE               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CENTER PIVOT FLIPPED.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
1006 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

NEZ088-190330-
Jefferson NE-
1006 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 1006 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Fairbury, or 22 miles west of Beatrice, moving east at
15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plymouth, Jansen and Cub Creek Recreational Area.

LAT...LON 4016 9720 4027 9727 4035 9701 4020 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 247DEG 14KT 4023 9717

DEWALD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

NEZ066-068-078-088>093-190545-
Lancaster-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-
Richardson-
Including the cities of Lincoln, Nebraska City, Crete, Wilber,
Fairbury, Beatrice, Tecumseh, Sterling, Auburn, Pawnee City,
Table Rock, and Falls City
1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT...

Numerous thunderstorms continue to move through southeast Nebraska
late this evening. The storms will primarily contain locally heavy
rainfall, but a few storms could also contain small hail. Some
areas have received 3 to 7 inches of rain over the previous
several hours. Some minor lowland flooding could redevelop in
those areas that have received the heaviest rainfall.

People should be aware and be ready to take appropriate action
should additional flash flood warnings be issued.