Alert archive / California / Red Flag Warnings in 2020
Red Flag Warning 8, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued this red flag warning at Oct 13, 2020, 10:00 AM PDT for 8 counties in California. It took effect at Oct 14, 2020, 5:00 AM PDT. It was in force for 3 days. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2020, 10:00 AM PDT (17:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 14, 2020, 5:00 AM PDT
- Expired
- Oct 17, 2020, 8:00 AM PDT
- In force
- 3 days
- Issued by
- NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Counties Alameda County, CA, Contra Costa County, CA, Marin County, CA, Napa County, CA, San Mateo County, CA, Santa Clara County, CA, Santa Cruz County, CA, Sonoma County, CA
The radar
The San Francisco radar (KMUX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Oakland, CA (KOAK), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 8 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2084 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
566 WWUS86 KMTR 131700 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1000 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020 ...Red Flag Warning is now in effect for Critical Fire Weather Conditions for Early Wednesday Morning through Friday Morning... .Critical fire weather conditions are possible mid to late this week across the higher elevations of the North and East Bay as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains. Some of these winds will possibly mix down into the North Bay and East Bay Valleys. Winds will begin to increase early Wednesday morning, especially over Napa County, but also farther south into the Diablo Range. Significantly stronger and gustier winds will develop and become more widespread in the hills Wednesday evening and peak overnight Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, then diminish during the day on Thursday. An uptick in wind speeds is likely again on Thursday night, but winds then are not expected to be as strong as those Wednesday night. In addition to gusty offshore winds, an extremely dry air mass will move in from the north and northeast. Afternoon relative humidity values beginning Wednesday are forecast to drop as low as the teens, with some single digit RH values possible. Little to no overnight recoveries are anticipated. Winds are anticipated to subside over all areas by Friday afternoon. CAZ507-511-141230- /O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0006.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 1000 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN San Francisco HAS ISSUED a Red Flag Warning...WHICH IS IN EFFECT from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Friday. THE Fire Weather Watch IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 and 511 which includes the North Bay Mountains (including the Glass Fire) and the East Bay Hills. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma Counties. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ512-141230- /O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0006.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 1000 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN San Francisco HAS ISSUED a Red Flag Warning...WHICH IS IN EFFECT from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Friday. THE Fire Weather Watch IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 512, which includes the Santa Cruz Mountains. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 50 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma Counties. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ506-510-141230- /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys- 1000 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN San Francisco HAS ISSUED a Red Flag Warning...WHICH IS IN EFFECT from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Friday. * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510, which includes the North and East Bay Valleys. * WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
8 follow-up statements
673 WWUS86 KMTR 141127 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 427 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Critical Fire Weather Conditions through Friday Morning... Critical fire weather conditions continue to be expected at elevations above 1000 feet in the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains today through Friday morning, as well as in the North and East Bay Valleys. Latest observations show northerly winds beginning to ramp up in the hills, primarily in the North Bay, but also farther south into the East Bay and the Diablo Range. Significantly stronger and gustier winds are then expected to develop and become more widespread in the hills this evening, peaking tonight into early Thursday morning before diminishing during the day. An uptick in wind speeds is likely again on Thursday night, but winds then are not expected to be as strong as those tonight. In addition to the strong and gusty offshore winds, an extremely dry air mass is forecast to move in from the north and northeast later today and then remain over the area through Friday. Beginning this afternoon, relative humidity values are projected to drop into the single digits and teens, with poor to very poor overnight recoveries. CAZ507-511-142200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 427 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma Counties. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ506-510-142200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys- 427 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510. * WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with limited to very limited nighttime recoveries. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ512-142200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 427 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 50 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma Counties. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
524 WWUS86 KMTR 142126 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 226 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Critical Fire Weather Conditions through Friday Morning... .A critically dry air mass will continue to settle into the region tonight through Friday with many interior locations seeing little to no recovery during the overnight/morning hours. As offshore winds increase in the region's higher elevations, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains today through Friday morning, as well as in the North and East Bay Valleys. Near critical fire weather conditions will also persist over the Dolan Fire as well, but winds will not be as strong as areas to the north. Northerly winds will continue to ramp up over the higher terrain, with significantly stronger and gustier winds expected to become more widespread in the hills this evening, peaking tonight into early Thursday morning before diminishing during the day. An uptick in wind speeds is likely again Thursday night, but not as strong or widespread as those tonight. A modest cooling trend is projected for the upcoming weekend. CAZ507-511-151200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 226 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma Counties. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ506-510-151200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys- 226 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510. * WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with limited to very limited nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ512-151200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 226 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 50 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz Mountains. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
749 WWUS86 KMTR 151300 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area Issued by National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 600 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 CAZ507-511-160100- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 600 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT Friday FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated this morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma Counties. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ506-510-160100- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys- 600 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510. * WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with limited to very limited nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ512-160100- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 600 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 50 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated this morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz Mountains. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ ASR
723 WWUS86 KMTR 160055 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 555 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 CAZ507-511-161800- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 555 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Thursday Night. Winds will diminish by late Friday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ506-510-161800- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys- 555 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510. * WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph. Winds will diminish by late Friday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to very limited nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma County above 500 feet. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ512-161800- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 555 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512. * WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Highest peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 45 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Thursday Night. Winds will diminish by late Friday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz Mountains. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
061 WWUS86 KMTR 161001 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 301 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 CAZ507-511-161815- /O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 301 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511. * WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 65 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated through early Friday morning. Winds will ease during the day Friday, but remain breezy. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ506-510-161815- /O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys- 301 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510. * WIND...North to northeast winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Winds will diminish by late Friday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to very limited nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma County above 500 feet. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ512-161815- /O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 301 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512. * WIND...North to northeast winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Winds will diminish by late Friday morning. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz Mountains. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
464 WWUS86 KMTR 161728 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 .Critically dry conditions will persist as offshore winds gradually weaken through the day. Very dry and breezy offshore winds will linger at the higher elevations of the North and East Bay throughout tonight, so that portion of the red flag warning has been extended through 8am Saturday. Conditions are forecast to improve through the weekend with cooler and less dry conditions with increased onshore flow. CAZ507-511-170100- /O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...North and East Bay mountains * WIND...Offshore winds are trending weaker this morning however breezy north to northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts 20 to 40 mph remain possible through midday. Locally, offshore winds will persist at the higher elevations through the night, with gusts 20 to 30 mph possible. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to poor nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ506-510-170100- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys- 1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCAL OFFSHORE WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510... * AFFECTED AREA...North and East Bay Valleys * WIND...Offshore winds are trending weaker through today however locally breezy offshore winds with isolated gusts are possible. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 percent with little to very limited nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma County above 500 feet. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ512-170100- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCAL OFFSHORE WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... * AFFECTED AREA...Santa Cruz Mountains. * WIND...Offshore winds are trending weaker through today however locally breezy offshore winds with isolated gusts are possible. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. * HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz Mountains. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
898 WWUS86 KMTR 170234 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 734 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 .Very dry and breezy offshore winds will linger at the higher elevations of the North and East Bay throughout Friday Night, so the Red Flag Warning for the North and East Bay Hills continues through 8am Saturday. Conditions are forecast to gradually improve through the weekend with cooler and less dry conditions developing, especially by Sunday as onshore flow increases. CAZ507-511-171500- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 734 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...North and East Bay mountains * WIND...Locally gusty offshore winds will persist at the higher elevations through Friday Night, with gusts 20 to 30 mph likely, especially above 1500 feet. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values dropped as low as 8 to 18 percent on Friday and little to poor nighttime recoveries are forecast Friday Night. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- northeasterly winds, and very low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
031 WWUS86 KMTR 171448 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 748 AM PDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Default overview section CAZ507-511-171600- /O.EXP.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 748 AM PDT Sat Oct 17 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511... Winds will continue to weaken through the rest of the morning. Still expecting dry conditions across the hills and mountains but the weaker winds will bring conditions under Red Flag criteria. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 13, 4:56 AM PDT, 5 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 13, 4:56 AM PDT, 5 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
456 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS...The warming trend that began on Monday is forecast to
continue through Friday as high pressure builds over California
and flow turns increasingly offshore. Locally strong and gusty
offshore winds are expected in the hills from early on Wednesday
through Friday morning, especially the North and East Bay Hills.
Strongest winds are forecast from Wednesday evening through
Thursday morning. As these will occur in conjunction with a very
dry air mass, critical fire weather conditions are likely to
result.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 03:30 AM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies
prevail across the district aside from a few patches of coastal
stratus. Latest Bodega Bay and Ft Ord profiler data indicate a
marine layer depth of only about 500 ft, and new 06Z NAM boundary
layer relative humidity output suggests little if any increase in
fog and low cloud coverage even at the coast itself. With
continuing strong upper level high pressure centered off the
California coast and just a bit of warming of the air mass aloft,
the net result for Tuesday will be sunny conditions and afternoon
temperatures similar to or a couple of degrees warmer than on
Monday. Expect afternoon highs to generally be in the 80s around
the Bays and up into the lower to mid 90s well inland.
As the week then progresses, a large scale upper level ridge of
high pressure is forecast to amplify off the West Coast while
surface high pressure builds strongly through the Pacific
Northwest and into the Great Basin. This will result in an
increasing offshore pressure gradient over northern and central
California, projected to be at its maximum Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Model output indicates the KWMC to KSFO pressure
gradient could then be as large as 16-17 mb. At the same time, an
extremely dry air mass is projected to move in from the north and
northeast.
Ultimately then there are three forecast concerns. First and
foremost is the likely development of critical fire weather
conditions by Wednesday morning, and then becoming even more
extreme Wednesday night into Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch has
already been issued for the the North Bay Mountains, East Bay
Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains from early Wednesday morning until
Friday morning and remains in effect (for details see the Fire
Weather Discussion below and/or refer to the Fire Weather Watch
product).
A second concern is that projected wind speeds over the higher
terrain of the North Bay and potentially also the East Bay could
become sufficient as to warrant Wind Advisory issuance. This will
need to be monitored over the next couple of forecast cycles;
consider to be close to the margin as of the present time. And
finally, temperatures themselves will get pretty warm Thursday and
Friday, most dramatically (in comparison to seasonal norms) around
the Bays and even at the coast itself, especially at
topographically favored locations like Stinson Beach, Half Moon
Bay and the Santa Cruz/Watsonville area. At this point does not
appear any Heat Advisories will be needed, but this too will need
to be monitored for.
In the longer range, ECMWF and GFS ensemble model ouput indicate a
bit of a cooling trend for the weekend and into the first part of
next week as the tail end of an upper level trough brushes
through from the northwest, but even then generally remaining
above seasonal norms. High confidence dry conditions will prevail
districtwide through the end of the 7 day forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 4:55 AM PDT Tuesday...For 12Z TAFs. Minimal
changes versus 06Z TAFs though added some additional mention of
low level wind shear at KSTS/KLVK. Moving forward, expect
additional mention of LLWS as an offshore wind event ramps up
through mid to late week. Otherwise, warm and dry air mass aloft
with weak offshore component overnight contributing to widespread
VFR conditions. A few passing high clouds over the region today.
Locally breezy onshore winds near coastal gaps (ie KSFO) today up
to around 15kt.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. West wind to around 15 knots Tuesday
afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR. Generally light terrain driven
winds with locally breezy onshore winds near KSNS Tuesday
afternoon and early evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...As of 03:30 AM PDT Tuesday...Primary period of
concern is from Wednesday morning through Friday morning when
models develop locally strong and gusty north to northeast winds
in the hills, especially the North Bay Mountains and East Bay
Hills, but also at the higher elevations of the Santa Cruz
Mountains. Latest NAM starts to ramp up northerly winds in the
hills early Wednesday morning, especially over Napa County, but
also farther south into the Diablo Range. Significantly stronger
and gustier winds are then expected to develop and become more
widespread in the hills Wednesday evening and peak overnight
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, then diminish during
the day on Thursday. An uptick in wind speeds is likely again on
Thursday night, but winds then are not expected to be as strong as
those Wednesday night. In addition to gusty offshore winds, an
extremely dry air mass is forecast to move in from the north and
northeast. Afternoon relative humidity values beginning Wednesday
are forecast to drop as low as the teens with very poor overnight
recoveries anticipated. Based on these expected developments,
critical fire weather conditions will likely occur at elevations
above 1000 feet in the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills, and
Santa Cruz Mountains between Wednesday Morning and Friday Morning.
A Fire Weather Watch therefore remains in effect for the North
Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills and Santa Cruz Mountains from early
Wednesday morning to Friday morning.
Winds are forecast to subside in all areas by Friday afternoon and
temperatures are forecast to cool next weekend.
&&
.MARINE...as of 04:51 AM PDT Tuesday...Moderate to gusty northwest
winds will prevail across the coastal waters through midweek.
Northwest winds are expected to strengthen further late Wednesday
and occasional gale force gusts of 35 to 45 kt may be possible.
These winds will also generate steep fresh swell resulting in
hazardous seas conditions for small crafts. A moderate northwest
swell will peak through tonight and a longer period southerly
swell arrives later this week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST: Blier
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
FIRE WEATHER: Blier
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www.youtube.com/nwsbayareaThe office that day
Everything else NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2:48 AM PDT | Gale Watch | MTR | 18 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in California, 2020Every red flag warning in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.