Alert archive / California / Red Flag Warnings in 2020

Red Flag Warning 8, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

October 13, 20208 counties in California

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued this red flag warning at Oct 13, 2020, 10:00 AM PDT for 8 counties in California. It took effect at Oct 14, 2020, 5:00 AM PDT. It was in force for 3 days. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 13, 2020, 10:00 AM PDT (17:00 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 14, 2020, 5:00 AM PDT
Expired
Oct 17, 2020, 8:00 AM PDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Counties Alameda County, CA, Contra Costa County, CA, Marin County, CA, Napa County, CA, San Mateo County, CA, Santa Clara County, CA, Santa Cruz County, CA, Sonoma County, CA

The radar

The San Francisco radar (KMUX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Oakland, CA (KOAK), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 8 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2020-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2020-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -5 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2084 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
11 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

566 
WWUS86 KMTR 131700
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1000 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...Red Flag Warning is now in effect for Critical Fire Weather 
Conditions for Early Wednesday Morning through Friday Morning...

.Critical fire weather conditions are possible mid to late this 
week across the higher elevations of the North and East Bay as 
well as the Santa Cruz Mountains. Some of these winds will
possibly mix down into the North Bay and East Bay Valleys. Winds 
will begin to increase early Wednesday morning, especially over 
Napa County, but also farther south into the Diablo Range. 
Significantly stronger and gustier winds will develop and become 
more widespread in the hills Wednesday evening and peak overnight 
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, then diminish during 
the day on Thursday. An uptick in wind speeds is likely again on 
Thursday night, but winds then are not expected to be as strong as
those Wednesday night. In addition to gusty offshore winds, an 
extremely dry air mass will move in from the north and northeast. 
Afternoon relative humidity values beginning Wednesday are 
forecast to drop as low as the teens, with some single digit RH 
values possible. Little to no overnight recoveries are 
anticipated. Winds are anticipated to subside over all areas by 
Friday afternoon.

CAZ507-511-141230-
/O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0006.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
1000 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN San Francisco HAS ISSUED a Red
Flag Warning...WHICH IS IN EFFECT from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM
PDT Friday. THE Fire Weather Watch IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 and 511 which includes
  the North Bay Mountains (including the Glass Fire) and the East
  Bay Hills. 

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 
  to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 
  55 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into 
  Thursday morning. 

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 
  percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma 
  Counties.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ512-141230-
/O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0006.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/
Santa Cruz Mountains-
1000 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 512...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN San Francisco HAS ISSUED a Red
Flag Warning...WHICH IS IN EFFECT from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM
PDT Friday. THE Fire Weather Watch IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 512, which includes the Santa
  Cruz Mountains. 

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to
  45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 50 mph. 
  Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into Thursday 
  morning. 

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 
  20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma 
  Counties.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ506-510-141230-
/O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys-
1000 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN San Francisco HAS ISSUED a Red
Flag Warning...WHICH IS IN EFFECT from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM
PDT Friday. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510, which includes
  the North and East Bay Valleys.
  
* WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 
  mph. 

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20
  percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to
  the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north-
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
8 follow-up statements
673 
WWUS86 KMTR 141127
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
427 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Critical Fire Weather 
Conditions through Friday Morning...

Critical fire weather conditions continue to be expected at 
elevations above 1000 feet in the North Bay Mountains, East Bay 
Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains today through Friday morning, as
well as in the North and East Bay Valleys. Latest observations show
northerly winds beginning to ramp up in the hills, primarily in 
the North Bay, but also farther south into the East Bay and the 
Diablo Range. Significantly stronger and gustier winds are then 
expected to develop and become more widespread in the hills this 
evening, peaking tonight into early Thursday morning before 
diminishing during the day. An uptick in wind speeds is likely 
again on Thursday night, but winds then are not expected to be as 
strong as those tonight. In addition to the strong and gusty 
offshore winds, an extremely dry air mass is forecast to move in 
from the north and northeast later today and then remain over the 
area through Friday. Beginning this afternoon, relative humidity 
values are projected to drop into the single digits and teens, 
with poor to very poor overnight recoveries. 

CAZ507-511-142200-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
427 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER 
ZONES 507 AND 511...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511. 

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 
  to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 
  55 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening 
  into Thursday morning.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 
  18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries. 

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma 
  Counties.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ506-510-142200-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys-
427 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER 
ZONES 506 AND 510...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510. 

* WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 
  mph.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20
  percent with limited to very limited nighttime recoveries. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ512-142200-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.201014T1200Z-201016T1800Z/
Santa Cruz Mountains-
427 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER 
ZONE 512...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of35 
  to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 50 
  mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into 
  Thursday morning. 

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 
  20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma 
  Counties.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
524 
WWUS86 KMTR 142126
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
226 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Critical Fire Weather 
Conditions through Friday Morning...

.A critically dry air mass will continue to settle into the 
region tonight through Friday with many interior locations seeing 
little to no recovery during the overnight/morning hours. As 
offshore winds increase in the region's higher elevations, 
critical fire weather conditions are likely across the North Bay 
Mountains, East Bay Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains today through 
Friday morning, as well as in the North and East Bay Valleys. Near
critical fire weather conditions will also persist over the Dolan
Fire as well, but winds will not be as strong as areas to the 
north. Northerly winds will continue to ramp up over the higher 
terrain, with significantly stronger and gustier winds expected to
become more widespread in the hills this evening, peaking tonight
into early Thursday morning before diminishing during the day. An
uptick in wind speeds is likely again Thursday night, but not as 
strong or widespread as those tonight. A modest cooling trend is 
projected for the upcoming weekend.

CAZ507-511-151200-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
226 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 507 AND 511...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 
  to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 
  55 mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening 
  into Thursday morning.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 
  18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma 
  Counties.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ506-510-151200-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys-
226 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 506 AND 510...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 
  mph.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to
  20 percent with limited to very limited nighttime recoveries. 

* HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma
  County.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ512-151200-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
Santa Cruz Mountains-
226 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 512...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to
  45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 50 mph.
  Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into Thursday
  morning.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 
  20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz
  Mountains.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
749 
WWUS86 KMTR 151300
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
Issued by National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
600 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

CAZ507-511-160100-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
600 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT Friday FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 507 AND 511...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to
  45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 55
  mph. Strongest winds are anticipated this morning.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 
  18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa and northeastern Sonoma 
  Counties.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ506-510-160100-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys-
600 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 506 AND 510...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 
  mph.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 
  20 percent with limited to very limited nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma 
  County.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ512-160100-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
Santa Cruz Mountains-
600 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 512...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of35 to
  45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 50 mph.
  Strongest winds are anticipated this morning. 

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 
  20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz 
  Mountains.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

ASR
723 
WWUS86 KMTR 160055
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
555 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

CAZ507-511-161800-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
555 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 507 AND 511...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40
  mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
  Strongest winds are anticipated Thursday Night. Winds will
  diminish by late Friday morning.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 
  18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern
  Sonoma County.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ506-510-161800-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys-
555 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 506 AND 510...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30
  mph. Winds will diminish by late Friday morning.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20
  percent with little to very limited nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma
  County above 500 feet.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ512-161800-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201016T1800Z/
Santa Cruz Mountains-
555 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 512...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to
  35 mph. Highest peaks and ridges can expect gusts up to 45 mph.
  Strongest winds are anticipated Thursday Night. Winds will
  diminish by late Friday morning.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 
  20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz 
  Mountains.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
061 
WWUS86 KMTR 161001
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
301 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

CAZ507-511-161815-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
301 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 507 AND 511...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40
  mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 65 mph. 
  Strongest winds are anticipated through early Friday morning. 
  Winds will ease during the day Friday, but remain breezy. 

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 
  18 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern 
  Sonoma County.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ506-510-161815-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys-
301 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 506 AND 510...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to
  30 mph. Winds will diminish by late Friday morning.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18 
  percent with little to very limited nighttime recoveries. 

* HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma 
  County above 500 feet.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ512-161815-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/
Santa Cruz Mountains-
301 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 512...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512.

* WIND...North to northeast winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25
  mph. Winds will diminish by late Friday morning.
  

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 
  20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz 
  Mountains.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
464 
WWUS86 KMTR 161728
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

.Critically dry conditions will persist as offshore winds 
gradually weaken through the day.  Very dry and breezy offshore
winds will linger at the higher elevations of the North and 
East Bay throughout tonight, so that portion of the red flag
warning has been extended through 8am Saturday.  Conditions
are forecast to improve through the weekend with cooler and 
less dry conditions with increased onshore flow.

CAZ507-511-170100-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T1500Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511...

* AFFECTED AREA...North and East Bay mountains

* WIND...Offshore winds are trending weaker this morning however
  breezy north to northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts 20 to 40
  mph remain possible through midday. Locally, offshore winds will
  persist at the higher elevations through the night, with gusts
  20 to 30 mph possible.

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 18
  percent with little to poor nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern 
  Sonoma County.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ506-510-170100-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Interior Valleys-
1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCAL OFFSHORE WINDS FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 506 AND 510...

* AFFECTED AREA...North and East Bay Valleys

* WIND...Offshore winds are trending weaker through today however
  locally breezy offshore winds with isolated gusts are possible.
 
* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 
  18 percent with little to very limited nighttime recoveries. 

* HIGHEST THREAT...Valleys of Napa County and Interior Sonoma 
  County above 500 feet.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ512-170100-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T0100Z/
Santa Cruz Mountains-
1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCAL OFFSHORE WINDS FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 512...

* AFFECTED AREA...Santa Cruz Mountains.

* WIND...Offshore winds are trending weaker through today however
  locally breezy offshore winds with isolated gusts are possible.
 
* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 
  20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Elevations above 1500 feet in the Santa Cruz 
  Mountains.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
898 
WWUS86 KMTR 170234
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
734 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

.Very dry and breezy offshore winds will linger at the higher 
elevations of the North and East Bay throughout Friday Night, so
the Red Flag Warning for the North and East Bay Hills continues 
through 8am Saturday. Conditions are forecast to gradually improve
through the weekend with cooler and less dry conditions
developing, especially by Sunday as onshore flow increases.

CAZ507-511-171500-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T1500Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
734 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511...

* AFFECTED AREA...North and East Bay mountains

* WIND...Locally gusty offshore winds will persist at the higher
  elevations through Friday Night, with gusts 20 to 30 mph likely,
  especially above 1500 feet. 

* HUMIDITY...Daytime humidity values dropped as low as 8 to 18
  percent on Friday and little to poor nighttime recoveries are
  forecast Friday Night. 

* HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern 
  Sonoma County.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due 
  to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north- 
  northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
031 
WWUS86 KMTR 171448
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
748 AM PDT Sat Oct 17 2020

Default overview section
CAZ507-511-171600-
/O.EXP.KMTR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201017T1500Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
748 AM PDT Sat Oct 17 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507 AND 511...

Winds will continue to weaken through the rest of the morning. 
Still expecting dry conditions across the hills and mountains but 
the weaker winds will bring conditions under Red Flag criteria.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 13, 4:56 AM PDT, 5 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 13, 4:56 AM PDT, 5 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
456 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...The warming trend that began on Monday is forecast to
continue through Friday as high pressure builds over California
and flow turns increasingly offshore. Locally strong and gusty
offshore winds are expected in the hills from early on Wednesday
through Friday morning, especially the North and East Bay Hills.
Strongest winds are forecast from Wednesday evening through
Thursday morning. As these will occur in conjunction with a very
dry air mass, critical fire weather conditions are likely to
result.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 03:30 AM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies
prevail across the district aside from a few patches of coastal
stratus. Latest Bodega Bay and Ft Ord profiler data indicate a
marine layer depth of only about 500 ft, and new 06Z NAM boundary
layer relative humidity output suggests little if any increase in
fog and low cloud coverage even at the coast itself. With
continuing strong upper level high pressure centered off the
California coast and just a bit of warming of the air mass aloft,
the net result for Tuesday will be sunny conditions and afternoon
temperatures similar to or a couple of degrees warmer than on
Monday. Expect afternoon highs to generally be in the 80s around
the Bays and up into the lower to mid 90s well inland.

As the week then progresses, a large scale upper level ridge of
high pressure is forecast to amplify off the West Coast while
surface high pressure builds strongly through the Pacific
Northwest and into the Great Basin. This will result in an
increasing offshore pressure gradient over northern and central
California, projected to be at its maximum Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Model output indicates the KWMC to KSFO pressure
gradient could then be as large as 16-17 mb. At the same time, an
extremely dry air mass is projected to move in from the north and
northeast.

Ultimately then there are three forecast concerns. First and
foremost is the likely development of critical fire weather
conditions by Wednesday morning, and then becoming even more
extreme Wednesday night into Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch has
already been issued for the the North Bay Mountains, East Bay
Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains from early Wednesday morning until
Friday morning and remains in effect (for details see the Fire
Weather Discussion below and/or refer to the Fire Weather Watch
product).

A second concern is that projected wind speeds over the higher
terrain of the North Bay and potentially also the East Bay could
become sufficient as to warrant Wind Advisory issuance. This will
need to be monitored over the next couple of forecast cycles;
consider to be close to the margin as of the present time. And
finally, temperatures themselves will get pretty warm Thursday and
Friday, most dramatically (in comparison to seasonal norms) around
the Bays and even at the coast itself, especially at
topographically favored locations like Stinson Beach, Half Moon
Bay and the Santa Cruz/Watsonville area. At this point does not
appear any Heat Advisories will be needed, but this too will need
to be monitored for.

In the longer range, ECMWF and GFS ensemble model ouput indicate a
bit of a cooling trend for the weekend and into the first part of
next week as the tail end of an upper level trough brushes
through from the northwest, but even then generally remaining
above seasonal norms. High confidence dry conditions will prevail
districtwide through the end of the 7 day forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:55 AM PDT Tuesday...For 12Z TAFs. Minimal
changes versus 06Z TAFs though added some additional mention of
low level wind shear at KSTS/KLVK. Moving forward, expect
additional mention of LLWS as an offshore wind event ramps up
through mid to late week. Otherwise, warm and dry air mass aloft
with weak offshore component overnight contributing to widespread
VFR conditions. A few passing high clouds over the region today.
Locally breezy onshore winds near coastal gaps (ie KSFO) today up
to around 15kt.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. West wind to around 15 knots Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR. Generally light terrain driven
winds with locally breezy onshore winds near KSNS Tuesday
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...As of 03:30 AM PDT Tuesday...Primary period of
concern is from Wednesday morning through Friday morning when
models develop locally strong and gusty north to northeast winds
in the hills, especially the North Bay Mountains and East Bay
Hills, but also at the higher elevations of the Santa Cruz
Mountains. Latest NAM starts to ramp up northerly winds in the
hills early Wednesday morning, especially over Napa County, but
also farther south into the Diablo Range. Significantly stronger
and gustier winds are then expected to develop and become more
widespread in the hills Wednesday evening and peak overnight
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, then diminish during
the day on Thursday. An uptick in wind speeds is likely again on
Thursday night, but winds then are not expected to be as strong as
those Wednesday night. In addition to gusty offshore winds, an
extremely dry air mass is forecast to move in from the north and
northeast. Afternoon relative humidity values beginning Wednesday
are forecast to drop as low as the teens with very poor overnight
recoveries anticipated. Based on these expected developments,
critical fire weather conditions will likely occur at elevations
above 1000 feet in the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills, and
Santa Cruz Mountains between Wednesday Morning and Friday Morning.
A Fire Weather Watch therefore remains in effect for the North
Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills and Santa Cruz Mountains from early
Wednesday morning to Friday morning.

Winds are forecast to subside in all areas by Friday afternoon and
temperatures are forecast to cool next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...as of 04:51 AM PDT Tuesday...Moderate to gusty northwest
winds will prevail across the coastal waters through midweek.
Northwest winds are expected to strengthen further late Wednesday
and occasional gale force gusts of 35 to  45 kt may be possible.
These winds will also generate steep fresh swell resulting in
hazardous seas conditions for small crafts. A  moderate northwest
swell will peak through tonight and a longer  period southerly
swell arrives later this week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Blier
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
FIRE WEATHER: Blier

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The office that day

Everything else NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 13, 2:48 AM PDTGale WatchMTR18 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in California, 2020Every red flag warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.