Red Flag Warning 6, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

367 
WWUS86 KMTR 010353
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
853 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

CAZ517-011300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T0100Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
853 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...Northeast 10 to 20 mph, gusts 25 to 30 mph. Strongest 
  winds above 2000 feet with strongest gusts above 2500 feet and 
  during the overnight and early morning hours. 

* HUMIDITY...10 to 20 percent, dropping as low as the single 
  digits with little or no nighttime recovery or a tendency to 
  lower into the single digits between 3 am and sunrise. Driest 
  above 2000 feet.

* HIGHEST THREAT...The Dolan Fire and any new ignitions.

* IMPACTS...Any ongoing fires or new fires that start will 
  spread rapidly. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ507-011300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.201001T2000Z-201003T0100Z/
North Bay Mountains-
853 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...

* WIND...North winds overnight will push across Napa county and
  impact the Glass Fire and the hills above Calistoga, potentially
  pushing the fire towards Angwin. Gusty north winds will continue
  into Thursday morning. Northwest winds arrive Thursday afternoon
  during the peak of the burn period along with very low humidity.
  Northwest winds increase Thursday night into Friday morning with
  gusts 25 to 30 mph and little or no humidity recovery. Breezy
  northerly winds continue through the Friday burn period with
  continued hot temperatures. 

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent but locally 8-12 percent with 
  little or no nighttime recovery in the hills.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Active portions of the Glass Fire or those 
  areas with unsecured or open fire line.

* IMPACTS...Fire will spread rapidly due to the combination of
  hot temperatures, very dry fuels, breezy northerly winds and 
  low humidity. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now. A combination of strong winds...low 
relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to 
extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

073 
WWUS86 KMTR 010927
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
227 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today and Friday...

.Gusty north to northwest winds, very low humidity with very poor
overnight recovery, and extremely dry fuels will result in 
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. Greatest impacts will be to higher elevations and
ongoing fires.

CAZ511-512-011800-
/O.EXA.KMTR.FW.W.0006.201001T2000Z-201003T0100Z/
East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-Santa Cruz Mountains-
227 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN San Francisco HAS ISSUED a Red
Flag Warning...WHICH IS IN EFFECT from 1 PM this afternoon to
6 PM PDT Friday. 

* WIND...Northwest winds arrive Thursday afternoon into Thursday
  evening during the peak of the burn period along with very low 
  humidity. Northwest winds increase Thursday night into Friday 
  morning with gusts 20 to 30 mph and little or no humidity 
  recovery. Breezy northerly winds continue through the Friday 
  burn period with continued hot temperatures. 

* HUMIDITY...15 to 30 percent but locally 8-12 percent with 
  little or no nighttime recovery in the hills.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire start will spread rapidly due to the 
  combination of hot temperatures, very dry fuels, breezy 
  northerly winds and low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now. A combination of strong winds...low
relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to
extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ517-011800-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T0100Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
227 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...Northeast 10 to 20 mph, gusts 25 to 30 mph. Strongest 
  winds above 2000 feet with strongest gusts above 2500 feet and 
  during the overnight and early morning hours. 

* HUMIDITY...10 to 20 percent, dropping as low as the single 
  digits with little or no nighttime recovery or a tendency to 
  lower into the single digits between 3 am and sunrise. Driest 
  above 2000 feet.

* HIGHEST THREAT...The Dolan Fire and any new ignitions.

* IMPACTS...Any ongoing fires or new fires that start will 
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ507-011800-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.201001T2000Z-201003T0100Z/
North Bay Mountains-
227 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...

* WIND...North winds overnight will push across Napa county and 
  impact the Glass Fire and the hills above Calistoga, 
  potentially pushing the fire towards Angwin. Gusty north winds 
  will continue into Thursday morning. Northwest winds arrive 
  Thursday afternoon during the peak of the burn period along 
  with very low humidity. Northwest winds increase Thursday 
  night into Friday morning with gusts 25 to 30 mph and little 
  or no humidity recovery. Breezy northerly winds continue 
  through the Friday burn period with continued hot 
  temperatures. 

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent but locally 8-12 percent with 
  little or no nighttime recovery in the hills.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Active portions of the Glass Fire or those 
  areas with unsecured or open fire line.

* IMPACTS...Fire will spread rapidly due to the combination of 
  hot temperatures, very dry fuels, breezy northerly winds and 
  low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now. A combination of strong winds...low
relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to
extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

194 
WWUS86 KMTR 011621
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
921 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today and Friday...

.Gusty north to northwest winds, very low humidity with very poor
overnight recovery, and extremely dry fuels will result in 
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon through Friday
night. Greatest impacts will be to higher elevations and ongoing 
fires.

CAZ507-511-512-020400-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0006.201001T2000Z-201003T1300Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
Santa Cruz Mountains-
921 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...

* WIND...North winds through Thursday morning will push across
  Napa county and impact the Glass Fire and the hills above
  Calistoga, potentially pushing the fire towards Angwin.
  Increasing northwest winds arrive Thursday afternoon during the
  peak of the burn period along with very low humidity. Northwest
  winds increase Thursday night into Friday morning with gusts 25
  to 30 mph with little or no humidity recovery. Breezy northerly
  winds continue through the Friday burn period with continued 
  hot temperatures. 

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent but locally 8-12 percent with 
  little or no nighttime recovery in the hills.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Active portions of the Glass Fire or those 
  areas with unsecured or open fire line.

* IMPACTS...Fire will spread rapidly due to the combination of 
  hot temperatures, very dry fuels, breezy northerly winds and 
  low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now. A combination of strong winds...low
relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to
extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ517-020400-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
921 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph. 
  Strongest winds above 2000 feet with strongest gusts above 2500 
  feet and during the overnight and early morning hours. 

* HUMIDITY...10 to 20 percent, dropping as low as the single 
  digits with little or no nighttime recovery or a tendency to 
  lower into the single digits between 3 am and sunrise. Driest 
  above 2000 feet.

* HIGHEST THREAT...The Dolan Fire and any new ignitions.

* IMPACTS...Any ongoing fires or new fires that start will 
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

141 
WWUS86 KMTR 020231
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
731 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today and Friday...

.Gusty north to northwest winds, very low humidity with very poor
overnight recovery, and extremely dry fuels will result in 
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon through Friday
night. Greatest impacts will be to higher elevations and ongoing 
fires.

CAZ507-511-512-021300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
Santa Cruz Mountains-
731 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...North winds through Thursday morning will push across 
  Napa county and impact the Glass Fire and the hills above 
  Calistoga, potentially pushing the fire towards Angwin. 
  Increasing northwest winds arrive Thursday afternoon during 
  the peak of the burn period along with very low humidity. 
  Northwest winds increase Thursday night into Friday morning 
  with gusts 25 to 30 mph with little or no humidity recovery. 
  Breezy northerly winds continue through the Friday burn period 
  with continued hot temperatures. 

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent but locally 8-12 percent with 
  little or no nighttime recovery in the hills.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Active portions of the Glass Fire or those 
  areas with unsecured or open fire line.

* IMPACTS...Fire will spread rapidly due to the combination of 
  hot temperatures, very dry fuels, breezy northerly winds and 
  low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now. A combination of strong winds...low
relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to
extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ517-021300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
731 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph. 
  Strongest winds above 2000 feet with strongest gusts above 
  2500 feet and during the overnight and early morning hours. 

* HUMIDITY...10 to 20 percent, dropping as low as the single 
  digits with little or no nighttime recovery or a tendency to 
  lower into the single digits between 3 am and sunrise. Driest 
  above 2000 feet.

* HIGHEST THREAT...The Dolan Fire and any new ignitions.

* IMPACTS...Any ongoing fires or new fires that start will 
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

814 
WWUS86 KMTR 021146
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
446 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions through Friday Night...

.Gusty north to northwest winds, very low humidity with very poor
overnight recovery, and extremely dry fuels will result in 
critical fire weather conditions through Friday night. Greatest 
impacts will be to higher elevations and ongoing fires.

CAZ507-511-512-022000-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
Santa Cruz Mountains-
446 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...Breezy northwest winds will continue over the higher
  terrain with winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph through
  Friday night. A pulse of slightly stronger winds will be 
  possible late Friday afternoon/evening with gusts up to 35 mph. 

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent but locally 8-12 percent with 
  little or no nighttime recovery in the hills.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Active portions of the Glass Fire or those 
  areas with unsecured or open fire line.

* IMPACTS...Fire will spread rapidly due to the combination of 
  hot temperatures, very dry fuels, breezy northerly winds and 
  low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now. A combination of strong winds...low
relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to
extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ517-022000-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
446 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...Northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25. A pulse of
  slightly stronger winds will be possible late Friday
  afternoon/evening with gusts up to 35 mph.  

* HUMIDITY...10 to 20 percent, dropping as low as the single 
  digits with little or no nighttime recovery or a tendency to 
  lower into the single digits between 3 am and sunrise. Driest 
  above 2000 feet.

* HIGHEST THREAT...The Dolan Fire and any new ignitions.

* IMPACTS...Any ongoing fires or new fires that start will 
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

630 
WWUS86 KMTR 022353
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
453 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions through Friday Night...

.Gusty north to northwest winds, very low humidity with very poor
overnight recovery, and extremely dry fuels will result in 
critical fire weather conditions through Friday night. Greatest 
impacts will be to higher elevations and ongoing fires.

CAZ507-511-512-031300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
Santa Cruz Mountains-
453 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...Breezy northwest winds will continue over the higher 
  terrain with winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph through 
  Friday night. A pulse of slightly stronger winds will be 
  possible late Friday afternoon/evening with gusts up to 35 
  mph. 

* HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent but locally 8-12 percent with 
  little or no nighttime recovery in the hills.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Active portions of the Glass Fire or those 
  areas with unsecured or open fire line.

* IMPACTS...Fire will spread rapidly due to the combination of 
  hot temperatures, very dry fuels, breezy northerly winds and 
  low humidity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now. A combination of strong winds...low
relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to
extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ517-031300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
453 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS...

* WIND...Northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25. A pulse of 
  slightly stronger winds will be possible late Friday 
  afternoon/evening with gusts up to 35 mph. 

* HUMIDITY...10 to 20 percent, dropping as low as the single 
  digits with little or no nighttime recovery or a tendency to 
  lower into the single digits between 3 am and sunrise. Driest 
  above 2000 feet.

* HIGHEST THREAT...The Dolan Fire and any new ignitions.

* IMPACTS...Any ongoing fires or new fires that start will 
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

279 
WWUS86 KMTR 031238
RFWMTR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
538 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020

CAZ507-511-512-031345-
/O.EXP.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
North Bay Mountains-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
Santa Cruz Mountains-
538 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 507...511 AND 512...

Breezy winds in the hills will ease after sunset. Still expect
another hot and dry day across the region with highs in the 90s
and humidity values in the teens. Another brief burst of northwest
winds may impact the Glass Fire later this afternoon and evening
but should be localized to gusts in the 25-30 mph range.

$$

CAZ517-031345-
/O.EXP.KMTR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201003T1300Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
538 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 517...

Hot and dry weather continues today with locally breezy winds over
the ridges. However, widespread strong winds are no longer
forecast. That being said fuels remain critically dry with another
day of hot and dry weather across the Forest.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
523 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Very warm to hot temperatures continuing across inland
areas through much of the work week. Heat Advisories are up for
the Bay Shoreline and much of the interior on Thursday. Expecting
cooling trend, especially inland, over the weekend. Fire Weather
Watches have been posted for the Glass and Dolan Fires.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:50 AM PDT Wednesday...Overnight satellite
imagery shows the marine layer is a little better established than
previously forecast. Fort Ord profiler still shows a rather
compressed marine layer at less than 1,000 feet, but inland
penetration is pretty decent with clouds in the N Bay
Valleys/Santa Clara Valley/Salinas Valley. The compressed marine
layer overnight has led to some patchy dense fog along the coast,
including Santa Rosa. Despite the damp/cloudy conditions over the
lower elevations conditions above the marine layer are still
mild and dry. Satellite imagery still shows heat signatures for
several wildfires across the state including the Glass Fire in the
North Bay.

Forecast focus the next few days still remains on heat concerns
and fire weather concerns.

The longwave pattern continues to indicate a very large and robust
upper level high pressure extending from Central Mexico northward
to Eastern Alaska. The airmass associated with the upper level
high is very mild with 850mb temps in middle 20C range.
For today - expect the low clouds/fog to dissipate inland, but
linger along the coast. Lingering coastal clouds and onshore flow
will keep temperatures near the coast in check. Today's warm to
hot temperatures will be away from the coast. The hottest areas
will likely be Southern Salinas Valley and S Interior Monterey/San
Benito counties with high temps up to 105. Expanded the Heat
Advisory today to include S Interior Monterey/San Benito in
addition to the S Salinas Valley based on Heat Risk Guidance.
Other interior areas will be hot and in the 90s, but Heat Risk is
lower. Thursday will see a few degrees of additional warming
pushing even more interior locations into Heat Risk concerns. As
with most heat events in the Bay Area the battle zone is near the
coast and Bay Shoreline. Temperatures on Thursday are no different
and have a bust potential for sure, especially the city of San
Francisco and some coastal communities. Some of the hi-res models
keep some onshore component, which could put the current forecast
in jeopardy. Interesting to note that the forecast maybe too warm
near the coast, but some MOS guidance suggests the forecast may
not be warm enough across the interior. Nonetheless, current
official forecast is leaning on the warmer side of guidance and
will leave as is for now. One change on Thursday was to expand the
Heat Advisory to all interior locations given the forecast and
new Heat Risk guidance. Another factor aiding in Heat Risk
concerns are the overnight lows in the hills. Current forecast has
some mild overnight lows with temps in the 60s and 70s.

Some cooling will begin on Friday, but mainly near the coast as
interior areas will remain above normal. The large upper level
high will flatten and weaken over the weekend bringing widespread
cooling to all areas. Temperatures will ultimately return closer
to seasonal values by the end of the weekend and into next week.

After the heat ends the next item to keep an eye on will be the
remnants of current Tropical Storm Marie. Operational models and
ensembles continue to show some moisture advecting toward CA as a
trough digs into the PacNW. A few of the models even generate some
QPF over NorCal including parts of the Bay Area. Obviously
impacts would big, confidence is low and it is still several days
out. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...as of 5:20 AM PDT Wednesday...For the 12z TAFs.
Low stratus has moved over coastal terminals throughout the Bay
Area, leading to LIFR/IFR conditions. Moderate to dense fog is
also an issue in coastal areas and valleys with a compressed
marine layer around 1,000 feet. Clouds and fog are expected to
remain around terminals into Wednesday morning, clearing after 17z
in SF Bay area and 18z in coastal Monterey Bay. VFR is forecast
for the afternoon with WNW winds at the surface and northerly
winds aloft. Incoming drier airmass today should limit the return
of stratus tonight into Thursday for most terminals, except around
Monterey Bay. Slant range visibility concerns remain around the
North Bay as the Glass Fire continues to burn and produce smoke.

Vicinity of KSFO... IFR/LIFR cigs persisting until around 17z.
Smoke aloft may still result in slant range issues through the
night and Wednesday. WNW winds 11 kt lessening a bit through
morning. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon as winds pick
up again and remain onshore. As winds aloft switch back to
offshore and an increasing pressure gradient, not expecting a
resurgence of low clouds Wednesday evening at this time.

SFO Bridge Approach...Possible slant-range vis issues with smoke
and haze. Otherwise, similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR cigs and vis with fog through the
morning hours. Clearing inland after 17z, lingering til after 18z
closer to the coast. VFR forecast Wednesday afternoon with a
traditional onshore seabreeze. Return of stratus clouds Wednesday
evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...Here are record high temperatures for Wednesday
and Thursday...

.......................WEDNESDAY      THURSDAY         FRIDAY
SANTA ROSA...........102 in 1980......102 in 1980....105 in 1980
KENTFIELD.............95 in 1966.......97 in 2012....100 in 2012
NAPA.................100 in 1980......106 in 1980....102 in 1980
RICHMOND..............96 in 2001.......99 in 1980....100 in 1980
LIVERMORE............100 in 2012......102 in 1952....106 in 1980
SAN FRANCISCO.........96 in 2001.......97 in 1980.....96 in 1980
SF AIRPORT............94 in 2001.......97 in 1980.....96 in 1980
REDWOOD CITY..........95 in 2001......103 in 1980....104 in 1980
HALF MOON BAY.........92 in 2001.......83 in 2014.....88 in 1995
OAKLAND DOWNTOWN......98 in 1980......103 in 1980....103 in 1980
SAN JOSE..............94 in 2001.......97 in 1980.....96 in 2012
GILROY................98 in 2010......104 in 2001....107 in 1980
SANTA CRUZ............98 in 1978......102 in 1965....102 in 1980
SALINAS...............99 in 2001......105 in 1980....103 in 1980
KING CITY............105 in 1980......109 in 1980....107 in 1980

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...as of 5:21 AM PDT Wednesday...Critical fire
weather  conditions are expected to develop over portions of the
district Wednesday and Thursday due to hot, dry and breezy
conditions.

A shallow marine layer developed overnight bringing much needed
relief to lower elevations of the district. However, conditions
above 1,000 feet still remain mild and dry this morning. Satellite
imagery still shows some heat associated with the Glass Fire.
Specifically the hills above the community of Calistoga.

No major changes to updated forecast from yesterday evening. Will
not upgrade Fire Weather Watches to a Red Flag Warning yet. Will
let the day shift make the final call after the morning fire
weather conference call. Will leave Fire Weather Watches in place
for now. Additionally, the Santa Cruz Mts and East Bay Hills may
need to be included in the watch Thursday night.

Glass Fire: Fire Weather Watch 1 pm Thursday through Friday 6 pm.
Yet the fire remains active near Calistoga.
Conditions shouldn't change too much for today. By midday Thursday
models bring some increasing Northwest (onshore) winds, but with
lowering humidity values. Northwest winds to increase by Thursday
evening with gusts 25-30 mph out of the northwest which would be
the first time the Glass Fire feels the effects of gusty northwest
winds. Any open or unsecured line in the East Zone would be
adversely impacted as well as lingering heat near the zone break
and Div KK. Conditions to remain hot, dry and breezy through
Friday with persistent WNW winds with highs still in the 90s.
Finally some cooling this weekend.

Dolan Fire: Fire Weather Watch 6 pm Weds through 6 pm Friday. As early as
Weds 6 pm 925 mb winds to 20 mph over the Dolan Fire. Thus Watch
starts for Weds night for ridge top winds 10-20 gusts 25-30 mph.
Strongest winds above 2000 feet with little or no nighttime
humidity recovery. Winds may ease at times but models showing a
prolonged breezy wind event lasting Thursday and Friday. It wont
mix down to lower elevations but should impact most areas of the
Dolan Fire with 1-2 days of northeast winds and very low humidity,
dropping into the single digits at night. This will definitely be
a wind test for containment lines as well as indirect lines. Some
signs of cooling by this weekend as the marine layer deepens.

&&

.MARINE...as of 03:29 AM PDT Wednesday...Light northwesterly
winds this morning, with some gusty conditions in the southern
coastal zones. Winds increasing this afternoon with some strong
gusts in traditional coastal locations. Gusty winds along the
coast can be expected through the end of the week. Seas will
mainly be a mix of moderate northwest swell and a longer period,
light southerly swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .Tday...Heat Advisory...CAZ516>518
         SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 2 PM
         SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 4 PM
         SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Lorber/Canepa
MARINE: Lorber
FIRE WEATHER: MM/RWW

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