Alert archive / California / Red Flag Warnings in 2020
Red Flag Warning 10, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued this red flag warning at Oct 20, 2020, 10:46 AM PDT for 5 counties in California. It took effect at Oct 21, 2020, 10:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 28 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 20, 2020, 10:46 AM PDT (17:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 21, 2020, 10:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Oct 23, 2020, 2:18 AM PDT
- In force
- 28 hr
- Issued by
- NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Counties Alameda County, CA, Contra Costa County, CA, San Mateo County, CA, Santa Clara County, CA, Santa Cruz County, CA
The radar
The San Francisco radar (KMUX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Oakland, CA (KOAK), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 36 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2144 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
019 WWUS86 KMTR 201746 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1046 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...Dry conditions and bursts of gusty offshore winds forecast in the hills of the San Francisco Bay Area over the next several days... .The continuation of gusty, dry offshore winds and low humidity, in combination with very dry fuels, will result in an increased risk of new wildfire starts and rapid wildfire spread. Gusty northerly winds will initially affect the North Bay Mountains and East Bay Hills and Valleys late Wednesday evening and expand overnight into the Santa Cruz Mountains and portions of Coastal San Mateo County through Thursday morning. A lull in the offshore winds is expected from late Thursday morning through Thursday evening, but another burst is expected overnight and into Friday morning. CAZ507-210500- /O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0008.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-201021T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains- 1046 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday to 8 AM PDT Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * AFFECTED AREA...North Bay Mountains. * WIND...Through Wednesday evening north to northeast 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. From Wednesday evening through Friday morning north to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 12-20 percent range with poor overnight recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, gusty north-northeasterly winds, and low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ511-210500- /O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0008.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 1046 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 511... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday to 8 AM PDT Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * WIND...North to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 12-18 percent range with poor overnight recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...The East Bay Hills. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, gusty north-northeasterly winds, and low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ512-210500- /O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0008.201022T0800Z-201023T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0800Z-201023T1500Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 1046 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... The national weather service in San Francisco has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM PDT Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * WIND...North to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 12-20 percent range with poor overnight recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...Locations with high fuel loads in the Santa Cruz Mountains. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, gusty north-northeasterly winds, and low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ510-210500- /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ East Bay Interior Valleys- 1046 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 510... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday to 8 AM PDT Friday. * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 510. * WIND...North to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible as winds from the higher ridges and peaks mix down to the valley floors. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 30-35 percent range but falling quickly overnight. Poor overnight recoveries expected, with widespread humidities in the 15-20 percent range. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ509-210500- /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0800Z-201023T1500Z/ San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 1046 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 509... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM PDT Friday. * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 509. * WIND...North to northeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges, peaks, and passages that lead to the shoreline. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities gradually falling to the 15-30 percent range, even down to the coast. Poor overnight humidity recoveries in the 12-20 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...is located from Half Moon Bay southward as dry winds from the mountains race down to the coast. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
7 follow-up statements
706 WWUS86 KMTR 210405 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 905 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...Dry conditions and bursts of gusty offshore winds forecast in the hills of the San Francisco Bay Area over the next several days... .The overarching weather pattern prevails around the Bay Area, providing an increased risk of new wildfire starts and rapid wildfire spread this evening and through the end of the week. Gusty northerly winds and dry conditions provide the threat of new wildfire starts through Wednesday morning. After a brief lull, wind gusts will strengthen again on Wednesday evening over affecting the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills and Valleys, and expand in the early Thursday morning timeframe over the Santa Cruz Mountains and portions of San Mateo coast. Winds will once again weaken in the afternoon before another round of gustier offshore winds expected overnight Thursday into Friday morning. CAZ507-211200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-201021T1500Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains- 905 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507 including the North Bay Mountains. * WIND...Through Wednesday evening north to northeast 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. From Wednesday evening through Friday morning north to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 12-20 percent range with poor overnight recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, gusty north-northeasterly winds, and low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ510-511-211200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ East Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 905 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511 including the East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range and the East Bay Interior Valleys * WIND...North to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible as winds from the higher ridges and peaks mix down to the valley floors. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 30-35 percent range but falling quickly overnight. Poor overnight recoveries expected, with widespread humidities in the 15-20 percent range. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ509-512-211200- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0800Z-201023T1500Z/ San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains- 905 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 509 AND 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 509 AND 512 including the Santa Cruz Mountains and the San Mateo Coastline * WIND...North to northeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges, peaks, and passages that lead to the shoreline. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities gradually falling to the 12-20 percent range, even down to the coast. Poor overnight humidity recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...is located from Half Moon Bay southward as dry winds from the mountains race down to the coast. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
091 WWUS86 KMTR 211459 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 759 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 ...Dry conditions and bursts of gusty offshore winds forecast in the hills of the San Francisco Bay Area over the next several days... .The overarching weather pattern prevails around the Bay Area, providing a continued risk of new wildfire starts and rapid wildfire spread this evening and through the end of the week. Gusty northerly winds and dry conditions provide the threat of new wildfire starts through Friday morning. After a brief lull during the day today, wind gusts will strengthen again on Wednesday evening affecting the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills and Valleys, and expand in the early Thursday morning timeframe over the Santa Cruz Mountains and portions of San Mateo coast. Winds will once again weaken in the afternoon before another round of gustier offshore winds take hold overnight Thursday into Friday morning. CAZ507-220400- /O.EXP.KMTR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-201021T1500Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains- 759 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... * WIND...Wednesday evening through Friday morning north to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 12-20 percent range with poor overnight recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, gusty north-northeasterly winds, and low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ510-511-220400- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ East Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 759 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511 including the East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range and the East Bay Interior Valleys * WIND...North to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible as winds from the higher ridges and peaks mix down to the valley floors. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 30-35 percent range but falling quickly overnight. Poor overnight recoveries expected, with widespread humidities in the 15-20 percent range. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ509-512-220400- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0800Z-201023T1500Z/ San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains- 759 AM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 509 AND 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 509 AND 512 including the Santa Cruz Mountains and the San Mateo Coastline. * WIND...North to northeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges, peaks, and passages that lead to the shoreline. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities gradually falling to the 12-20 percent range, even down to the coast. Poor overnight humidity recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...is located from Half Moon Bay southward as dry winds from the mountains race down to the coast. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
629 WWUS86 KMTR 220333 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 833 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 ...Dry conditions and bursts of gusty offshore winds forecast in higher terrain around the San Francisco Bay Area over the next several days... Offshore winds increase Wednesday evening once again bringing dry conditions around the Bay Area providing a continued risk of new wildfire starts and rapid wildfire spread through Friday morning. Strongest wind gusts are expected at higher elevations of the North Bay Mountains and East Bay Hills, with winds mixing down and increasing in the East Bay Valleys. By early Thursday morning, offshore winds will increase over the Santa Cruz Mountains and reach the San Mateo coastline. Expect winds to subside slightly Thursday afternoon, before increasing for yet another round of gustier offshore winds Thursday evening into Friday morning. CAZ510-511-221230- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ East Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 833 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511 including the East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range and the East Bay Interior Valleys. * WIND...North to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible as winds from the higher ridges and peaks mix down to the valley floors. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 12-19 percent range with poor overnight recoveries expected, with maximum humidities in the 20-30 percent range. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ509-512-221230- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0800Z-201023T1500Z/ San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains- 833 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 509 AND 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 509 AND 512 including the Santa Cruz Mountains and the San Mateo Coastline. * WIND...North to northeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be strongest during the overnight hours. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges, peaks, and passages that lead to the shoreline. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities gradually falling to the 12-20 percent range, even down to the coast. Poor overnight humidity recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...is located from Half Moon Bay southward as dry winds from the mountains race down to the coast. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ507-221230- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.201022T0500Z-201023T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains- 833 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... * WIND...Wednesday evening through Friday morning north to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 12-20 percent range with poor overnight recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, gusty north-northeasterly winds, and low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
446 WWUS86 KMTR 220954 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 254 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 CAZ510-511-222230- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ East Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 254 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511 including the East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range and the East Bay Interior Valleys. * WIND...North to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will be strongest through mid-morning and then again tonight. Locally stronger winds are possible as winds from the higher ridges and peaks mix down to the valley floors. * HUMIDITY...15-30% and drying through the day with little or no recovery tonight. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ509-512-222230- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains- 254 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 509 AND 512... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 509 AND 512 including the Santa Cruz Mountains and the San Mateo Coastline. * WIND...North to northeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be strongest through mid-morning. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges, peaks, and passes that lead to the shoreline. * HUMIDITY...20-40% with little or no night time recovery in the hills. The immediate coast may see much higher humidity but if offshore winds mix down, rapid drying will occur. * HIGHEST THREAT...The Santa Cruz mountains along Skyline Blvd including Highway 9, 17, 35 and 92. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ CAZ507-222230- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains- 254 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... * WIND...through Friday morning north to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. * HUMIDITY...Daytime humidities in the 12-20 percent range with poor overnight recoveries in the 20-30 percent range. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, gusty north-northeasterly winds, and low humidities. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
285 WWUS86 KMTR 222120 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 220 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...Critical Fire Weather Conditions through Friday Morning for Gusty Wind and Low Humidity... ...Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Late Sunday Morning through Tuesday Morning Due to Strong Winds and Critically Low Humidity... .Critical fire weather conditions will persist over the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills including the Diablo Range, and the interior East Bay Valleys through Friday morning. Winds generally diminish with the return of onshore flow during the day Friday and continue into Saturday. A significantly stronger offshore wind event, potentially the strongest of the year, will develop over the region on Sunday and persist into early next week. CAZ512-230600- /O.CAN.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ Santa Cruz Mountains- 220 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 512... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. The Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. * WIND...For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. North to northeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. * HUMIDITY...For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Minimum daytime humidity of 10 to 15 percent. Maximum overnight humidity generally between 15 and 35 percent. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ509-222230- /O.CAN.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 220 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 509... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has cancelled the Red Flag Warning. Critical fire weather conditions are no longer anticipated along the San Mateo Coastline. $$ CAZ510-511-230600- /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ East Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 220 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511. * WIND...Through Friday morning. North to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Gusts to 45 mph in the higher ridges and peaks. Locally stronger winds may mix down to the valley floors. For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. For the Valleys, north to northeast wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. For the Hills and Diablo Range, north to northeast wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 40 to 60. Stronger gusts up to 70+ mph may be possible over favored ridges and peaks during the night and morning hours. * HUMIDITY...Through Friday morning. Maximum overnight humidity 20 to 30 percent, locally higher in the valleys. For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Minimum daytime humidity of 5 to 15 percent. Maximum overnight humidity generally between 15 and 30 percent. * HIGHEST THREAT...Higher ridges of the East Bay Hills and Diablo Range. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ507-230600- /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ North Bay Mountains- 220 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. * WIND...Through Friday morning. North to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. North to northeast wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 40 to 60. Stronger gusts up to 70+ mph may be possible over favored ridges and peaks during the night and morning hours. * HUMIDITY...Through Friday morning. Maximum overnight humidity 15 to 30 percent, locally higher in the coastal ranges. For late Saturday morning through Tuesday morning. Minimum daytime humidity of 5 to 15 percent. Maximum overnight humidity generally between 15 and 30 percent. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ506-230600- /O.NEW.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys- 220 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 506... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. * WIND...For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. North to northeast wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * HUMIDITY...For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Minimum daytime humidity of 5 to 15 percent. Maximum overnight humidity generally between 15 and 30 percent. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$
413 WWUS86 KMTR 230443 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 943 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...Critical Fire Weather Conditions through Friday Morning for Gusty Wind and Low Humidity... ...Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Late Sunday Morning through Tuesday Morning Due to Strong Winds and Critically Low Humidity... .Critical fire weather conditions will persist over the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills including the Diablo Range, and the interior East Bay Valleys through Friday morning. Winds generally diminish with the return of onshore flow during the day Friday and continue into Saturday. A significantly stronger offshore wind event, potentially the strongest of the year, will develop over the region on Sunday and persist into early next week. CAZ510-511-231300- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ East Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 943 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511... * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 510 AND 511. * WIND...Through Friday morning. North to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Gusts to 45 mph in the higher ridges and peaks. Locally stronger winds may mix down to the valley floors. For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. For the Valleys, north to northeast wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. For the Hills and Diablo Range, north to northeast wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 40 to 60. Stronger gusts up to 70+ mph may be possible over favored ridges and peaks during the night and morning hours. * HUMIDITY...Through Friday morning. Maximum overnight humidity 20 to 30 percent, locally higher in the valleys. For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Minimum daytime humidity of 5 to 15 percent. Maximum overnight humidity generally between 15 and 30 percent. * HIGHEST THREAT...Higher ridges of the East Bay Hills and Diablo Range. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ507-231300- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ North Bay Mountains- 943 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 507... * WIND...Through Friday morning. North to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks. For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. North to northeast wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 40 to 60. Stronger gusts up to 70+ mph may be possible over favored ridges and peaks during the night and morning hours. * HUMIDITY...Through Friday morning. Maximum overnight humidity 15 to 30 percent, locally higher in the coastal ranges. For late Saturday morning through Tuesday morning. Minimum daytime humidity of 5 to 15 percent. Maximum overnight humidity generally between 15 and 30 percent. * HIGHEST THREAT...Mountains of Napa County and northeastern Sonoma County. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ506-512-231300- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-Santa Cruz Mountains- 943 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 506... * WIND...For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. North to northeast wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * HUMIDITY...For late Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Minimum daytime humidity of 5 to 15 percent. Maximum overnight humidity generally between 15 and 30 percent. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$
930 WWUS86 KMTR 230918 RFWMTR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service San Francisco CA 218 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2020 ...Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Late Sunday through Tuesday Morning Due to Strong Winds and Critically Low Humidity... .A significantly stronger offshore wind event, likely the strongest of the year, will develop over the region on Sunday and peak Sunday night before winds ease by early Tuesday. CAZ507-510-511-231030- /O.CAN.KMTR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201023T1500Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ North Bay Mountains-East Bay Interior Valleys- East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range- 218 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY... ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in San Francisco has cancelled the Red Flag Warning. * WIND...For Sunday through Tuesday morning. North to northeast wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 40 to 60. Stronger gusts up to 70+ mph may be possible over favored ridges and peaks Sunday night into Monday morning. * HUMIDITY...15-30% later Sunday through Tuesday. * HIGHEST THREAT...The North and East Bay including the hills and valleys. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ506-512-231030- /O.CON.KMTR.FW.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T1800Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-Santa Cruz Mountains- 218 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS... * WIND...For late Sunday through Tuesday morning. North to northeast wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * HUMIDITY...For late Sunday Tuesday morning. Minimum daytime humidity of 5 to 15 percent. Maximum overnight humidity generally between 15 and 30 percent. * IMPACTS...Any new fires that start will spread rapidly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 20, 10:46 AM PDT, 0 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 20, 10:46 AM PDT, 0 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1046 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Gusty, dry offshore winds combined with persistent low
humidity will result in heightened fire weather concerns in the
hills through much of the week. Locally gusty north to northeast
winds will continue at the higher elevations of the North Bay
today through Wednesday morning. Stronger and more widespread
offshore winds are then forecast for the North and East Bay Hills
from Wednesday night through Friday morning, as well as locally in
the Santa Cruz Mountains. Temperatures will remain warmer than
seasonal averages today and Wednesday, but then cool to near
normal late in the week and into the weekend. Another offshore
wind event is possible in the hills from Saturday night through
Monday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:08 AM PDT Tuesday...Moderate overnight
winds were observed in the North Bay, with stations in the the
Napa Mountains and northeastern Sonoma County measuring gusts in
the 20-30 mph range. Some of our highest peaks in the North Bay
measured stronger gusts (e.g. Mt St Helena observed an overnight
max gust of 44 mph). Overall, winds did trend slightly lighter
than progged owing to weaker vertical mixing. Humidity recoveries
in the valleys have also remained moderate due to the marine
layer influence. Bodega Bay Profiler has observed a gradual
compression of the marine layer depth and currently in the 100-300
ft range. Higher terrain locations, on the other hand, have
observed poorer recoveries, especially those locations over 2500
ft where some stations are currently running in the 20-25% range.
As such, expect the marine layer moisture to become less pronounced
in the coming days along the North Bay shoreline, especially as the
first trough digs into the Great Basin by midweek and helps in
introducing the next series of offshore bursts. Will have updates on
both the active Red Flag Warning and the Fire Weather Watches later
this morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM PDT Tuesday...The primary forecast
concern throughout the remainder of the week and into next weekend
will be periods of gusty offshore winds at the higher elevations
of the SF Bay Area. These winds, combined with persistent low
humidity, will result in periodic critical fire weather
conditions in the hills. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for
details.
Early morning satellite imagery shows that low clouds and fog are
mostly confined to areas along the Santa Cruz and Monterey County
Coasts, as well as the Salinas Valley. Developing offshore winds
in the hills of the SF Bay Area has limited coastal stratus/fog to
just a few patches from San Mateo County northward. The marine
layer remains relatively shallow and so we could continue to see
patchy dense fog until a few hours after sunrise, especially near
Monterey Bay.
The synoptic pattern hasn't changed all that much since yesterday
with a rex block remaining anchored offshore along 140W. Thus,
expect little change in temperatures today except the potential
for slight warming in coastal portions of the Bay Area due to
offshore flow in the hills and reduced onshore surface winds.
Temperatures are then likely to cool slightly on Wednesday as the
rex block retrogrades a bit and a slightly cooler airmass moves
into our area. In any case, temperatures will remain warmer than
seasonal averages through midweek.
A cooling trend is then forecast from Thursday through Saturday as
a couple of shortwave troughs dropping southeast out of western
Canada deepen a longwave trough over the western half of CONUS and
also shift the longwave trough position farther to the west
towards California. 850 mb temps over our area are forecast to
cool from about 20 deg C today down as low as 11 C by Saturday. By
the end of the work week we can expect our temperatures to return
to near normal. The cooler airmass, along with continued dry air
and mostly clear skies, will mean cool overnight lows later this
week and into the upcoming weekend, with lower 40s likely in the
inland valleys, and perhaps a few upper 30s in the coldest spots.
As the upper trough to our east digs deeper and farther to the
west later this week and into the weekend, northerly winds will
increase in the hills. resulting in more widespread fire weather
concerns at the higher elevations of the SF Bay Area starting
Wednesday night and continuing off and on through Monday morning.
Based on the pattern evolution, the strongest winds would likely
occur late in the weekend when Wind Advisories may be needed in
the North and East Bay Hills.
Longer range models agree that the blocking pattern over the
Eastern Pacific will break down early next week, allowing the
ridge offshore to shift eastward and over California during the
first half of next week, resulting in warmer temperatures and
lighter winds by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 10:50 AM PDT Tuesday...For the 18z TAFs.
A very shallow marine layer banked up along the Pacific coast and
just inland a few miles along the San Mateo/Santa Cruz/Monterey
coasts, including just over KMRY. Otherwise, expect widespread
VFR conditions through the day tonight and most of the night. May
see some extremely shallow mist and possibly fog late in the night
into the sunrise Wednesday, but much less so than this morning. An
increasing offshore bias will develop overnight and mostly keep
the region dry through the period. At this point, not expecting
any LLWS but that could become an increasing likelihood later in
the week. At KAPC, may see a few localized gusts this evening
that are stronger than usual due to these offshore winds.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Wind light in the morning, increasing
to near 15 knots in the afternoon and early evening. Light west
wind tonight and Wednesday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Calm to light southeast winds shifting
to onshore near 10 knots in the afternoon and early evening.
VLIFR-IFR tonight and Wednesday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...As of 3:30 AM PDT Tuesday...A localized offshore
wind event is underway early this morning with weather stations
above 3000 feet in the North Bay currently reporting wind gusts up
to 30 mph. Based on the lastest NAM and local WRF models, winds in
the North Bay Mountains will peak between sunrise and mid morning
when gusts to 40 mph are likely. Winds will then taper off for
the remainder of the day before increasing once again at the
higher elevations of the North Bay tonight into early Wednesday.
Compared to previous offshore wind events this season, this
current event is quite localized with only moderate offshore winds.
However, given the very dry fuels and persistent low humidity,
critical fire weather conditions will be met. A Red Flag Warning
is currently in effect for the North Bay Mountains through 8 am
Wednesday.
Expect a lull in winds for most of the day Wednesday before the
next stronger and more widespread offshore wind event gets
underway on Wednesday night. This second event will primarily
impact the North and East Bay hills from late Wednesday evening
through Friday morning, with strongest winds expected late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Wind gust of 40 to 50 mph
are likely in the higher hills of both the North and East Bay,
with locally higher gusts possible across the highest ridges and
peaks. In addition, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible in the
Santa Cruz Mountains. A Fire Weather Watch is currently in effect
for this second event and covers the North and East Bay Hills
from late Wednesday evening through Friday morning and the Santa
Cruz Mountains from Wednesday night through Friday morning. A
decision on whether to transition this watch to a Red Flag Warning
will likely be made later this morning.
Longer range models indicate there will be another lull in the
winds later Friday into Saturday. However, forecast confidence is
increasing for a potential third offshore wind event later in the
weekend into early next week as a cold trough dives in the Great
Basin. This type of pattern would likely result in stronger
northerly winds than the two preceeding events this week, with
winds likely peaking on Sunday night.
&&
.MARINE...As of 2:54 AM PDT Tuesday...Northwest winds will
increase to gales across the northern outer coastal waters tonight
and continue through late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Small craft advisory winds will steadily develop to the south
across the coastal waters through mid-week. These winds will
generate steep fresh swell resulting in hazardous seas conditions.
Mixed seas will persist with a moderate northwest swell and
longer period southerly swell.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...Red Flag Warning...CAZ507
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 PM
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST: Diaz
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: Canepa
FIRE WEATHER: Dykema
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www.youtube.com/nwsbayareaThe office that day
Everything else NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2:40 AM PDT | Gale Warning | MTR | 66 hr | |
| Oct 20, 2:40 AM PDT | Small Craft Advisory | MTR | 6 days |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in California, 2020Every red flag warning in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.