Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
331 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)...

Convection was relatively slow to get going today, but has
increased in coverage significantly over the last couple of hours.
Currently have a NW-SE oriented line of storms moving northeast
through the central TN valley approaching the Knoxville metro
area, with more storms filling in back to the south and west
clear into middle Tennessee and northern Georgia/Alabama. Most of
the storms through the evening hours will be sub-severe, but a
strong to severe storm or two with damaging winds cannot be ruled
out.

The most likely areas for any damaging winds will be southwest of
the Jefferson City or Morristown areas. SPC mesoanalysis data
shows a DCAPE maxima in the TN valley to the northeast of
Knoxville, with values north of 1,000 J/kg noted. Instability is
less as you work northeast of the Knoxville metro, but the
interface of lessening instability and strong DCAPE could provide
a window of time where storms could produce some damaging winds.
This would be most likely with the cluster of storms moving
through the Knoxville metro this afternoon. Further southwest,
instability is higher overall, so the possibility of taller
storms/deeper cores would present an opportunity for some small
hail and damaging winds there as well. Again, coverage will be
scattered at best and most won't be severe.

For tonight, storms will linger into the night as the shortwave
trough driving the storms across the region doesn't pass until
between 03z-06z time frame. Most all guidance continues to show
some convection through that time, though coverage should
decrease after sunset with loss of heating.

On Monday, guidance indicates another MCV moving northeast out of
the Arklamiss region while another upper shortwave moves east
through Missouri and into Kentucky through the day. The lead MCV
should produce a round of showers, likely elevated in nature,
across the southern CWA during the morning hours with more
widespread showers and thunderstorms developing after midday as
the northern wave approaches from the west. Similar to today, most
storms won't be severe but there could be a few stronger storms
that approach severe levels with some small hail and damaging
winds being a possibility.

Temperatures will be warm again tomorrow but slightly cooler than
today.

CD

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...

Weather through the first portion of the work week will be mainly
driven by a slow moving low pressure system working its way across
Canada and the Great Lakes region. Around this low we'll see several
shortwaves move through the larger trough pattern which will help
lead to continuous rain chances through the first half of the work
week.

On Monday convection should be occurring across Middle Tennessee and
Central Kentucky, and these storms should move into the Eastern
Tennessee Valley as we head into evening and overnight hours. If
these storms to our west are able to maintain their strength as they
move into the eastern Tennessee Valley they could tap into an
environment capable of producing strong to severe storms. Still
think the highest risk will be across western to middle Tennessee,
but will have to keep an eye on these storms once they develop on
Monday.

On Tuesday locations in and around the eastern Tennessee Valley have
another chance to see strong to severe storms. A jet streak will be
moving through the Ohio Valley to our north as the cold front
associated with the trough begins to push into the forecast area.
Along this front PWAT values begin to rise and unidirectional shear
will help lead to the possibility of training storms. So Tuesday
looks to bring the possibility of strong to severe storms and storms
capable of producing heavy rain and flooding.

Once the front is able to push south of the area and the trough axis
is finally to the east of forecast area the weather should quiet
down for the second half of the work week.

Moisture begins to return to the area as we head into next weekend
and diurnal convection chances also make a return.

ABM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Flight categories should remain predominantly VFR through the
period. The exceptions will be if any convection affects a
terminal, and then if fog develops overnight. Think the best
chance for storms to affect a terminal will be at KCHA so have
a TEMPO group to account for that. Will monitor KTYS for
amendments, but at this time storms may remain just outside the
vicinity of the airport before they start dying off this evening.
Fog tonight is uncertain so have left that out for now. If a
terminal gets rainfall, that would certainly increase the odds of
fog development tonight, but uncertainty is too high right now to
include in the 18z package.

CD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  89  70  84  69 /  40  70  60  90  80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  88  69  82  68 /  30  50  60  80  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  86  68  82  67 /  40  60  70  80  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  85  66  80  66 /  30  40  40  80  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
338 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-221945-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
338 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 /238 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours.
Some of these storms could be strong to possibly severe, with
damaging winds the most likely threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday may be strong to
marginally severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
possible.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Tuesday and Tuesday
night, and will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall that
could lead to flooding. A few storms could also produce strong wind
gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Monday afternoon through
Tuesday night.

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