Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1256 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A warm spring like day across most of the forecast area today
with temperatures already in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Highs will be
near or at records for the date with a few some spots up near 80
and most other locations in the 70s due to the sunshine. Downsloping
winds over the eastern Tennessee mountains have cleared skies
across parts of the central and northeast areas. Winds are very
strong from the south ahead of convective line moving across
middle Tennessee and NW Alabama. Gusts around 40 mph in the valley
and around 60 to 80 mph in the higher elevations. Negative tilt
strong upper jet and low level jet up to 65 Knots with low Cape
and high shear expecting high wind gusts with thunderstorms and
isolated tornadoes possible within the line as it moves east.
Timing is still somewhat uncertain as storms over middle TN are
moving NE and may move into KY. Farther south in NW AL and eastern
MS strong thunderstorms are moving northeast and should move into
southeast Tennessee by mid to late afternoon then move northeast
across the rest of the forecast area during the early evening.
Heavy rain can be expected as storms move in but because of the
speed of the storms only isolated areas of localized flooding can
be expected. Updated forecast for hourly temperatures and
dewpoints, cloud cover and timing of showers and storms. Updated
rainfall amounts slightly too. Updated forecast sent.

TD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Strong low level wind shear will continue a few more hours across
northeast TN as a very tight pressure gradient is in place due to
the deep low pressure system moving across the middle MS and Ohio
Valleys early this afternoon.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is advancing slowly east from
middle TN into northern Alabama ahead of the cold front. At 1700Z,
the front was still over Western Tennessee. Lower ceilings will
move across southeast Tennessee this afternoon at cha and then
tys and tri may remain vfr until after 00Z due to the strong
cross terrain flow. Expect the front to move across the eastern
part of the state between 00Z and 06Z. Expect a brief period of
mvfr and possibly ifr ceilings and visibility due to heavy rain
and thunderstorms between about 21Z and 03Z tonight. Improving
flight weather begins behind the front this evening at cha and
after by 06Z at tri. However some lower clouds will advect in
behind the front Sunday morning.

TD

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

     Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Claiborne-Grainger-
     Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-North Sevier-
     Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest
     Greene-Sullivan-Union-Washington.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-
     McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott-
     Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott-
     Washington-Wise.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
439 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-120945-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
439 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 /339 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

...High Wind Warning for Mountains and Foothills Remains in
Effect through Tonight...
...Wind Advisory in Effect for all of East Tennessee, Southwest
Virginia and Southwest North Carolina today...

Strong southerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will
continue to impact the area through Saturday night across parts of
eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Stronger winds of 25 to
45 mph with gusts as high as 80 mph are expected across the
mountains and foothills.

A strong storm system will impact the Tennessee Valley region
later this afternoon and tonight, bringing a potential for
severe convective winds.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to cross the area
late this afternoon and evening. Portions of this line may be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for this afternoon and evening.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1236 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N CADES COVE          35.62N 83.81W
01/11/2020  M56 MPH          BLOUNT             TN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION IGGT1 INDIAN GRAVE GAP (2 N
            CADES COVE).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
108 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW GATLINBURG        35.71N 83.54W
01/11/2020  M84 MPH          SEVIER             TN   MESONET

            COVE MOUNTAIN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE HAPPY VALLEY      35.63N 83.94W
01/11/2020  M53 MPH          BLOUNT             TN   MESONET

            LOOK ROCK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ONEIDA                  36.51N 84.52W
01/11/2020                   SCOTT              TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF TORN OFF ANTIQUE STORE.

&&