Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1215 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast remains in good shape this morning. Area radars and
observations still show areas of light snow showers or flurries
still moving across the area. While the trough continues to move
through the area, several vort lobes will continue to provide
slight chances of snow showers and flurries to continue into the
early afternoon. Am not expecting any additional accumulations as
the DGZ is beginning to dry out. However, cannot rule out a
location picking up a quick dusting in a heavier snow shower. The
current winter weather advisory will be allowed to expire at 1 PM
EST. Otherwise only needed to catch up hourly temperatures and
dewpoints based on observational trends. Updated ZFP and grids
have been sent.

Diegan

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Snow showers will continue to move through the area this afternoon
with most likely terminals to see this snow at TYS and TRI. This
could lower CIGS and visibility to MVFR levels in any snow
showers. Otherwise fluctuating VFR/MVFR CIGS will persist with
some clearing expected at CHA this afternoon. Winds out of the
west will continue to increase into the 5-15 knot range with gusts
as high as 25 to 30 knots at times. This should subside later
tonight. Snow/rain showers will move back into the area Saturday
morning with some CIG/visibility restrictions possible.

Diegan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             31  49  30  57  47 /  20  30  10   0  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  30  45  28  55  43 /  10  50  20   0  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       29  45  28  54  44 /  10  50  20   0  80
Tri Cities Airport, TN              26  42  27  51  38 /  10  30  30   0  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon
     for Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Morgan-Scott.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     Russell-Wise.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Lee.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
420 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-080930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
420 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 /320 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Accumulating snowfall expected across the northern Plateau and
higher elevations of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia early
this morning and into the afternoon as cold air continues to
spill into the region, changing rain to snow. Widespread
precipitation will end later this morning and become more isolated
by the afternoon.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally
higher amounts up to 5 inches possible across the highest
elevations of the Smoky Mountains within advisory areas.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible today across the eastern TN
Mountains above 3500/4000 feet due to a tightening pressure
gradient. Downed trees are possible due to saturated soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The wet pattern will continue into next week with several rounds
of rainfall expected, mainly Monday and Monday night, and again
next Thursday. Given the saturated soils and high stream levels,
any additional rainfall may cause flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
952 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 AM     SNOW             JELLICO                 36.58N 84.13W
02/07/2020  E1.5 INCH        CAMPBELL           TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0724 AM     SNOW             WHITE OAK               36.53N 84.03W
02/07/2020  E2.0 INCH        CAMPBELL           TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&