Winter Storm Watch 7, NWS Twin Cities, MN

839 
WWUS43 KMPX 212010
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

.A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from late tonight through 
Thursday evening for Douglas, Todd, Morrison, and Stevens counties.
A band of snow is expected to develop late tonight and persist 
through Thursday and into early Thursday evening. Snow rates of 1 
inch per hour are possible, especially late tonight and early 
Thursday. Areas in the Winter Storm Warning can expect 4 to 7 
inches of snow.

Precipitation will transition from snow, to a wintry mix, to all 
rain over a short distance as one heads southeast. This will 
result in a tight snowfall gradient that may shift slightly in 
future forecasts. In addition, there is a chance for light icing
accumulations, so have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
southwest Minnesota.

MNZ041>043-047-220415-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0007.201022T0900Z-201023T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0006.201022T0900Z-201023T0300Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
and Morris
310 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches.

* WHERE...Douglas, Todd, Morrison and Stevens Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If traveling, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your 
vehicle in case of an emergency. Drive with caution.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MNZ044-045-048>050-055-220415-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0007.201022T0900Z-201023T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0016.201022T0900Z-201023T0300Z/
Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Pope-Stearns-Benton-Swift-
Including the cities of Princeton, Mora, Glenwood, St Cloud, 
Sauk Rapids, and Benson
310 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches.
  Light ice accumulations possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and west central 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MNZ054-056>058-064-065-073-220415-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0016.201022T0900Z-201023T0300Z/
Lac Qui Parle-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-Renville-
Redwood-
Including the cities of Madison, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield,
Granite Falls, Olivia, and Redwood Falls
310 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

jrb

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Widespread stratus and drizzle continue to shroud most of the
area this morning, but some clearing is occurring across west
central MN. Temperatures have slowly climbed above freezing in the
warm sector of the storm that brought daily and monthly record
snowfall yesterday. Temps won't warm much more for the day with
weak CAA and increasing cloud cover offsetting any diurnal
heating. A band of precipitation along the SD/NE border will
continue east northeastward this morning, reaching southern and
west central MN late this morning and afternoon. Thermal profiles
suggest a rain/snow mix with little or no accumulation, but a
brief burst of steadier snow is possible.

The pattern reloads Thursday as the current trough lifts out and
the next one digs into the northern Plains. Mid to upper level
frontogenesis will foster the eastward development of an east-
west band of snow late tonight (around 09Z) into west central MN.
This band may be particularly intense and capable of 1+ inch per
hour rates. The largest change to the previous forecast has been
to shift this initial band south, which had major implications on
total snow accumulation across central MN.

At the same time, surface cyclogenesis over Colorado will send an
area of low pressure northeastward along a sharp baroclinic zone
setting up from east central NE to northern IL. Precipitation will
blossom south of the initial frontogenetic band as lift and
increasing moisture overspread the area. Strong southerly mid
level flow will bring warm air aloft northward, but easterly
surface flow and widespread precipitation should keep surface
temperatures only in the low to mid 30s. This leads to a
complicated p-type scenario where predominant p-type will
transition from rain across southern/eastern MN and western WI
(with embedded thunderstorms due to steep mid level lapse rates
above a sharp, moist inversion); to a wintry mix of rain, snow,
sleet and possibly freezing rain as one heads northwest to a
narrow corridor from near Madison to St. Cloud; to all snow
northwest of there. This will result in a tight gradient of
snowfall totals somewhere across western and central MN. Making
things even more complicated is dry slotting expected to lift
northeast into southwestern MN not long after widespread precip
begins developing. QPF was lowered in these areas a bit.
Meanwhile, the snow band should remain over west central MN for
much of the day. All of this added together leads to a fairly low
confidence forecast in the northwest CWA. GEFS plumes paint the
uncertainly well with snow totals ranging from 3 to 15 inches in
Alexandria, with a mean total of 8. The official forecast has been
increased several inches with the southward shift in the
frontogenetic band and now calls for 6 to 9 inches north of a line
from Morris to Lake Mille Lacs. As such, a Winter Storm Watch
will be issued from late tonight into Thursday evening. The watch
was drawn up with a larger buffer than normal around the snow
band due to the potential for more shifting. Expect some additional
changes through today and this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Thursday evening the last of the precipitation pushing out of the
area, with dry conditions likely as we head into early Friday
morning as the forcing moves off to the east. Cool and dry
conditions are on tap for Friday with highs in the low to mid 30s
across our area of MN with cooler temperatures in western MN as
winds shift out of the northwest at the surface behind the departing
system. Weak high pressure builds into the area for Saturday but is
quickly supplanted by yet another tough diving south and taking on a
negative tilt Sunday morning. The latest GFS/ECMWF both have MN in
the cold sector and primed to see yet another snow event, with the
ECMWF just a tad farther north which would spare I-90 from the worst
of the precipitation, although that would also introduce some mixed
precipitation into the equation. Didn't make any changes to NBM PoPs
for this period as they were within the 60-80 range which was
slightly higher than yesterday as yesterday's model runs were
generally farther south.

Tuesday/Wednesday we could see yet another system, although there is
far more uncertainty this far out. Another trough does look to dig
into the northern CONUS, but this time strong high pressure situated
to our southwest would push the most significant precipitation into
northern Minnesota and Lake Superior. The upper level cut off low
that is largely responsible for sending repeated waves of mid-level
energy into our area does look primed to reposition farther north
once we get into the middle of next week, which hopefully signals an
end to this active pattern and returns us to more fall-like
conditions rather than winter. I'm sure I'm not the only one that
would like to see the Climate Prediction Center's 3-4 week outlook
come true given how the 2nd half of October is looking!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Areas of mist and drizzle are still present for most sites, with
low clouds lingering around as well. CIGS should improve over the
first few hours of the forecast as winds intensify out of the
northwest, however this is short lived and it will take a bit
longer for our western sites. Skies look to improve to VFR with
mainly BKN CIGS during the daylight hours, with the potential to
drop back into MVFR as a round of light precipitation is possible
along the MN river this afternoon. Not expecting much in the way
of measurable precipitation, but a drop in CIGS is certainly in
the cards.

KMSP...
CIGS remain IFR to start the TAF with a TEMPO for drizzle and fog
dropping us into LIFR for a few hours this morning. CIGS should
improve to MVFR around sunrise as winds remain at around 05kts out
of the NW, eventually improving further to VFR during the late
morning. Another dip down to MVFR is possible with some potential
for showers this afternoon, but left a mention out of the TAF for
now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/IFR. SHRA likely. Chc RASN. Wind NE 10-20kts.
FRI...VFR with RASN/MVFR possible early. Wind NW 10-20kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening
     for Benton-Douglas-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd.

WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...TDH
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
843 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-WIZ014>016-
023>028-220145-
Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-
Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-
Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
843 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Areas of fog and freezing drizzle are possible overnight, along
with slick roads from the snow earlier today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. Severe
weather is not expected.

Another storm system is developing for Sunday. At this time
measurable snowfall accumulations appear possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ041-042-047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091>093-220145-
Douglas-Todd-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-
Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
843 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and
west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. Severe
weather is not expected.

Another storm system is developing for Sunday. At this time
measurable snowfall accumulations appear possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1036 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     SNOW             MAHTOMEDI               45.06N 92.96W
10/20/2020  M6.9 INCH        WASHINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE VIA TWITTER.

&&

TDH