Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
354 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

The main severe weather threat has shifted south of Iowa as of 330
am. There still remains a weak short wave across eastern Minnesota
which will continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms until
it moves through by mid morning. The strong cold front which will
drop temperatures next week by 20 to 25 degrees below normal was
moving across North Dakota. Before this front arrives, there will
be several hours of heating today along with humidity levels
increasing. It is still possible to have a few lower 90s along the
Iowa border before the front arrives this afternoon. Gusty
northwest winds up to 35-40 mph will accompany this front by the
afternoon in western Minnesota.

Monday's weather will start with increasing cloudiness as a
significant change in the weather pattern develops across the
Rockies, and into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Strong
forcing along a strengthening baroclinic zone along the cold front
that moves across the region today, will set the stage for bands
of showers along, and northward on the cold side of this zone by
Monday afternoon. Temperatures will not get out of the 50s in
central Minnesota, with near 60 along the Iowa border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

It still remains unclear on where the strengthening baroclinic
zone takes shape by midweek. Models continue to advertise the long
wave trough pattern developing across the most of the central
U.S. with a strong ridge off the east coast. Both the EC/GFS
support a storm system cutting off over the southern Rockies
sometime by midweek. The long wave trough will aid in a strong
southwest flow aloft initially across the central U.S, and over
the Great Lakes. Once the main trough axis shifts eastward across
the Northern Plains, does the cutoff low form. Along and east of
this long wave trough, a chance of showers will continue, and
mainly focusing over the southeast 1/3 of MPX CWA. This area will
be coolest and most unsettled. Farther to the northwest, it
becomes tricky on how much cloud cover remains and the threat of
frost by midweek. Currently, the best chance of frost will occur
over west central and central Minnesota, west of St. Cloud for
Tuesday & Wednesday morning.

Confidence continues to be low past Wednesday due to the
aforementioned cutoff low and where it begin to move northeast
across the plains sometime by the end of the week, and into the
weekend. Without getting into details on which model will handle
this situation better, it is more important on the eventual
unsettled pattern once it becomes clear where this system evolves.

Another aspect to next weeks weather is the current temperature
trends for Tuesday/Wednesday. Currently, and depending upon where
the rain will fall more persistently, will determine where the
best chance of record high low temperatures will occur. A lot of
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin weather stations have record
high low temperatures around 55 degrees. This could easily be
broken if rain is more persistent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

TSRA/SHRA will continue to affect areas along and south of I-94
through the sunrise, with the bulk of the IFR/MVFR cigs across
southern Minnesota in heavier precipitation. However, confidence
has increased that MVFR/IFR cigs will develop once the TSRA end.
These cigs will expand to the north as south/southeast winds
ahead of a cold front across the Dakotas continues. The frontal
boundary will move through west-central/central Minnesota by 18z,
and the rest of southern Minnesota/west central Wisconsin between
18-22z. Once winds shift to the west/northwest, any leftover
IFR/MVFR cigs will end. The best time frame for IFR/MVFR cigs
once the TSRA end will be around 10-18z. Behind the cold front
there will be a period of gusty winds (NW) of 20-30 kts.

KMSP...

There remains a good chance of TSRA through 10z, so kept temporary
with TSRA with general -SHRA. Once the TSRA end, there could be a
period of MVFR cigs (possibly lower than 1.7 kft) this morning
before winds shift to the west/northwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Tue...VFR with -RA/MVFR possible. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
Wed...MVFR with -RA/IFR possible. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
070830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
316 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Lingering non-severe thunderstorms will be possible across west
central Wisconsin this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Frost is possible over west central and central Minnesota
midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     REDWOOD FALLS           44.54N 95.11W
09/06/2020                   REDWOOD            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
114 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     HAIL             REDWOOD FALLS           44.54N 95.12W
09/06/2020  M1.50 INCH       REDWOOD            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
217 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 AM     HAIL             3 SW TRUMAN             43.81N 94.48W
09/06/2020  E1.00 INCH       MARTIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JANESVILLE              44.12N 93.71W
09/06/2020                   WASECA             MN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     HAIL             4 SSE MORRISTOWN        44.17N 93.40W
09/05/2020  M1.25 INCH       STEELE             MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CORRECTED TIME - PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 4
            SSE MORRISTOWN.

&&

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
405 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

MNZ060-070-060930-
Dakota-Hennepin-
405 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN AND
NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA COUNTIES...

At 405 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bloomington, or
8 miles south of Minneapolis, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Bloomington, Plymouth, Eagan, Eden Prairie, Burnsville,
Lakeville, Minnetonka, Apple Valley, Edina, St. Louis Park and
Shakopee.

LAT...LON 4461 9324 4470 9332 4479 9333 4478 9338
      4481 9343 4489 9351 4500 9340 4491 9320
      4489 9318 4489 9316 4483 9300 4477 9301
      4478 9293 4477 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 310DEG 41KT 4485 9332

JRB