Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
806 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

The surface trough over the Dakotas will shift into Minnesota
tonight and Saturday, while a shortwave trough tops the western
ridge. Expect the combination of these features to spawn at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and Saturday. Through
early evening any activity should be isolated to widely scattered
in nature until after 05Z when the low level jet and
warm/moisture advection kick in. However, any storms that pop
during the evening could be strong to severe, given MLCAPEs around
2500-3000 J/kg and lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. Shear is fairly
week however, so any severe activity would be limited.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger across the eastern
two thirds of the forecast area on Saturday as the trough bisects
the area and shortwave energy continues to stream in from the
north. There will be a conditional severe risk with these storms
given continued steep mid-level lapse rates and decent shear.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Semi-zonal flow dominates the north central CONUS during the
long-term forecast period. Shower and thunderstorm chances in our
area will be tied to shortwaves traveling through the mid-level
flow regime. Most of these waves look to stay displaced across
northern MN/WI as the jetstream parallels the International Border
and mid-level capping builds locally through mid-week. Therefore,
we look to stay overall dry, warm, and humid through Wednesday.
High temperatures should range mostly in the mid 80s to mid 90s on
Mon/Tue/Wed, with lows in 60s. By Thursday models prog the
arrival of a front as the jet stream sags south. Timing is still
highly variable depending on which model you look at, so at this
point precip chances are rather low, but we should see storms
return sometime in the Thursday to Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Convection has organized over eastern SD and grown in
coverage/strength as it shifted east into western MN. This cluster
is expected to continue moving ESE through this evening,
potentially impacting a few TAF sites, including in and around the
Twin Cities down to MKT. Not expecting much to extend north of
I-94, so that will include KAXN-KSTC for seeing some TSRA
activity. Difficult to say if it will progress into western WI but
will monitor and amend as needed. Winds will remain generally out
of the south in the 5-10kt range then veer to SW and W tomorrow
afternoon-evening.

KMSP...Hourly models indicate greater chances of the western MN
convection reaching KMSP in the 03z-04z timeframe and continuing
thru 06z. Will likely AMD to include as such, to indicate both
TSRA and strong winds associated with the convection.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
740 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
230000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
740 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through tonight.
There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of the
coverage area tonight. The primary severe threat is damaging
winds though a few storms may produce large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The threat for an isolated severe storm will continue into
Saturday, with strong, damaging winds being the main severe
weather threat.

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday. The threat for
severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
843 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

MNZ058-059-065>068-220230-
McLeod-Carver-Sibley-Renville-Meeker-Wright-
843 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...A LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN
MEEKER...WESTERN SIBLEY...MCLEOD...NORTHWESTERN CARVER AND EASTERN
RENVILLE COUNTIES...

At 843 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Watkins to near Litchfield to near
Hector to near Morton. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hutchinson, Glencoe, Montrose, Cokato, Winsted, Howard Lake, Lester
Prairie, Dassel, Winthrop, Fairfax, Hector and Bird Island.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4510 9388 4489 9397 4463 9424 4448 9440
      4457 9503 4480 9487 4509 9451 4513 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 291DEG 30KT 4525 9438 4508 9445 4476 9475 4453
9503

JLT

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