Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
318 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

MCS currently working through the southern portion of the area was
initially forced along the southern periphery of an old MCV, and
is now starting to lose some punch as its cold pool outruns the
mid-level circulation. However, given the ample instability
(MUCAPE AOA 3500 J/Kg) we could still see some additional
development through the remainder of the afternoon into early
evening in association with it (or due to the more widespread weak
warm advection across the area). A better chance for SHRA/TSRA
still looks to be later tonight when the shortwave trough over
western KS and NE moves toward the region, although CAMs have
become less optimistic about that this afternoon. However, still
allowed for a more widespread increase in PoPs across the area
tonight. Convective potential on Sunday is also a difficult call
since much will depend on what occurs tonight into early Sunday
morning, and how much forcing we're able to see with the frontal
boundary. Maintained chance PoPs, which certainly lines up with
some of the CAMs. The larger scale guidance (NAM, GFS, ECMWF)
would point toward the best chance being during the evening when
the frontal boundary moves through the area, so went with the most
widespread PoPs during that period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

In the longer term we'll see somewhat zonal flow early in the week
give way to a western trough and eastern ridge by later in the
week. This will put us into a potentially active pattern for the
second half of the week, and the forecast reflects that with a
long period of chance PoPs across much of the area. It will
undoubtedly be dry for much of that time, but differences in the
guidance on timing and position of features leads to a long period
of lower probabilities in the NBM consensus guidance.
Unfortunately, at this point there isn't any good reason to
deviate substantially from that since mesoscale features that
can't be accurately forecast with specifity at this time will
dictate much of what occurs. Did decrease PoPs some for a few
periods when the deterministic guidance was in good agreement, but
couldn't find too many opportunities to do so. Temperatures look
to be near or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Anything but a high confidence forecast this go around with an
unstable airmass and various weak forcing mechanisms in the area.
Tried to time some convection this afternoon with the presence of
upstream activity and some of the CAMs bringing activity through
the central portion of the area. A better chance would seem to be
later tonight when the shorwave trough over western South Dakota
evident on water vapor imagery work into the area. Cloud cover
remains an issue, with widespread MVFR ceilings slow to leave
today. Satellite shows some mixing starting to occur, although
debris clouds streaming in from the west could work against that
for a time. However, continued with an improving trend in ceiling
heights this afternoon. But, generally kept VFR and MVFR ceilings
around at most sites through the period.

KMSP...There is significant uncertainty in the likelihood and
timing of any convection this afternoon and tonight, so it's
likely that later forecasts will make some adjustments. Should see
ceilings get into VFR fairly soon, but MVFR will return tonight,
then should lift again sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sunday night...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. South wind 5 to 15 kt becoming northwest.
Monday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
Monday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
Tuesday...VFR. Southwest wind around 10 kt.
Tuesday night...VFR. South wind around 5 kt.
Wednesday...VFR. Southeast wind around 10 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
956 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
956 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. A few storms could
become severe this afternoon and tonight, with the primary
threats being large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.
Heat and humidity will build today, with afternoon heat indices
peaking in the low to mid 90s across the Minnesota portion of the
outlook area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Sunday and Sunday night.
A few storms could become severe with the primary threats being
large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
evening.

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