Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

A lackluster stationary front continues to cut across central MN,
with a few areas of fog lingering this morning as winds remain
extraordinarily weak and look to remain as such for most of today.
Shortwave energy is producing the weakening convection over eastern
South Dakota, with the movement looking to be east-southeast which
could clip southwestern MN this morning. Most CAMs have this
activity weakening over the next few hours but a few rumbles of
thunder and brief showers in the southwest are possible by around
sunrise.

As the morning convection wanes, we can expect a similar day overall
to the previous few days as far as how it feels, with warm and humid
weather continuing. Temperatures will peak in the mid 80s for most
with upper 80s for the metro with mainly high clouds and plenty of
sunshine. Another shortwave begins to push into MN from ND by the
evening which could spur some showers and storms, however the better
activity looks to remain confined to the 925-850mb jet which remains
west/northwest of the MPX coverage area. If the position of that jet
were to shift east/southeast just a bit, we could end up seeing the
potential for training storms and showers in west-central MN. While
the threat of flash flooding is there if that does happen, this area
also sorely needs the rainfall as it remains in abnormally dry to
even D1 moderate drought conditions. Plenty of instability combined
with decent mid level lapse rates will give us a risk for severe
storms as well, however this is relying heavily on the forcing from
the low level jet as we don't have another trigger to set off storms
until a cold front arrives later in the day tomorrow. Our best PoPs
remain in the northwest where the jet forcing is the strongest,
however there is still some wiggle room in where it will eventually
end up.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

The last half of the week we look to be under the influence of
progressive semi-zonal flow, which will mean continuance of stormy
weather and seasonably warm temps.

On Wednesday night the cold front looks to be passing across the
area, while shortwave energy in the base of the mid-level low over
Saskatchewan/Manitoba progresses across the area. Instability ahead
of the front is more than sufficient to support severe storms,
although deep layer shear is displaced behind the front, which could
potentially hinder storm organization. Showers and thunderstorms
look to continue along the front through much of the overnight
hours, with a quick inch+ of rain for a good portion of the forecast
area given these storms should be pretty sufficient rainfall
producers given precipitable water values in the 1.75-2.0 inch
range. The threat for flooding issues is pretty marginal however
given these storms will be transient (as compared to storms over the
last week that were nearly stationary given the lack of steering
flow under the mid-level ridge).

Showers and thunderstorms look to linger in the east and south on
Thursday near the boundary as another shortwave passes. Friday looks
to be a dry day in between shortwaves, but then another shortwave
trough tops the Four Corners mid-level ridge on Saturday. There are
still some model differences regarding placement of the forcing
sufficient for showers and thunderstorms, so at this point 40% POPS
seem about right.

Heading into next week the heat and humidity will build back up a
bit again as the southwestern CONUS ridge builds toward the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Mainly VFR conditions tonight with some patchy fog possible in SW
MN mainly an issue for RWF. Otherwise a lack of CIGS with mostly
FEW/SCT upper level clouds today. Winds will be lacking with
variable winds trending southeasterly at or under 05kts for the
day. The big question and the largest uncertainty is whether or
not the convection in South Dakota makes it to MN, and high res
guidance is not too enthused by it. Left a mention out of the TAF
for now but this is one area where we could see changes this
morning.

KMSP...VFR conditions with light winds throughout the day.
Nocturnal convection likely remains southwest of the area and
should not pose a threat to the terminal. Next chance for
convection arrives Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...Mainly VFR with evening TSRA/MVFR. Wind SSW 10-20 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR with TSRA/MVFR possible early. Wind S/SW 5kts
bcmg NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDH
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
443 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
080945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
443 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this morning in southern MN.
Another round is possible in western and northwestern MN this
evening and overnight. A marginal risk for severe storms is
present this morning, with a slight risk in the northwest
tonight. The primary risks are large hail and damaging winds,
with heavy rain and flash flooding also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periodic thunderstorms are expected through much of this week.
There is a Slight Risk of severe storms across portions of
Minnesota on Wednesday with a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms for much of the remainder of the coverage area. The
main hazards are large hail and damaging winds. In addition, some
thunderstorms may contain heavy rain and frequent lightning.

Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s are possible on Wednesday
afternoon and early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
550 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

MNZ065-073-071145-
Renville-Redwood-
550 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN REDWOOD AND CENTRAL
RENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM CDT...

At 549 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Redwood Falls,
moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Redwood Falls, Fairfax, Hector, Franklin, Morton, Belview, Delhi,
Bechyn, North Redwood and Redwood Falls Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 87 and 95.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 68 and 94.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4468 9534 4478 9463 4446 9463 4445 9472
      4446 9480 4449 9482 4449 9486 4444 9487
      4443 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1049Z 263DEG 24KT 4455 9511

LS