Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Finally seeing some scouring of the cloud cover in south
central/southwest MN and northwest IA, which should contribute to
further atmospheric destabilization during the late afternoon.
MLCAPES have increased to around 1500 J/KG along the Iowa border
of south central MN, where CIN looks to have eroded. So in
addition for the potential for storms currently over far southwest
MN to strengthen as they encounter higher instability,
additional, strong to severe storms may form in a linear fashion
farther to the east over south central MN. Damaging winds still
look to be the primary threat, although hail can't entirely be
ruled out given borderline mid-level lapse rates.

Rainfall-wise, we have seen some decent amounts already today over
west central MN, where 1.5-2.5 inch amounts have been reported.
Expect the heavier rainfall with this next round of thunderstorms
to shift fairly quickly east, and given the dry/drought
conditions over west central MN into central MN, flooding issues
are very unlikely. Farther east, any water issues would be
confined to typical urban/poor drainage spots, where getting a
quick 1-2 inches causes problems (ponding).

The severe threat should wane late this evening, but showers and
thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours in east/south
central MN and west central WI. On Friday, showers linger over
west central WI, but dry conditions should be found elsewhere.
High temperatures will return back to cooler than normal values,
with mid 70s to lower 80s. While winds will be out of the north in
the wake of the front, speeds will be rather light (under 10
knots).

The baroclinic zone stalls just southeast of the area through
Friday night, while mid-level shortwave energy lifts northeast
from the Central Plains. This will bring continued shower and
thunderstorm chances into Saturday for south/east central MN into
west central WI.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

An active pattern will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms
throughout the long term forecast period as we remain under the
influence of mid-level shortwave energy. Over the weekend, weak
waves in the base of the low over Manitoba stream overhead, and
then as the low spins across Ontario and the Great Lakes next
week more impulses on the western periphery pass across the area
in the ensuant northwest flow. Given the lack of attendant
surface features and the transient nature of the rainfall, severe
weather and/or flooding concerns are low throughout the week.
Also, given this type of pattern, near to below normal
temperatures are likely, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

We expect a continued waning trend of the lingering showers early
this afternoon, and then re-development of thunderstorms,
possibly strong, is expected between 21Z and 00Z over central
southern MN, spreading east into WI through the evening. MVFR
conditions are expected with the thunderstorms, along with the
potential for strong wind gusts at sites (particularly for
KMKT/KMSP/KRNH). Scattered showers and MVFR ceilings look to
linger overnight in the wake of the thunderstorms, mainly from
east/south central MN into west central WI. MVFR clouds will
likely persist over WI on Friday morning, but mostly clear skies
are expected elsewhere. South-southwest winds shift to north-
northwest with the passage of the cold front. Speeds on Friday
look to be around or below 10 knots.

KMSP...The window for potentially strong thunderstorms still looks
to be between 22Z and 02Z, with weaker storms and showers
lingering after that until 07Z. Strong wind gusts are the primary
threat with the late afternoon and early evening storms. MVFR
ceilings (around 3KFT) look to linger overnight in the wake of the
showers and thunderstorms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
191715-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight. There is
a risk of severe storms, especially over central and southern
Minnesota. The main hazard is damaging winds. In addition, a few
storms may produce heavy rain which could produce isolated
flooding, mainly in poor drainage or low lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday night
through the middle of next week. Severe weather is not expected
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
evening.

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