Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
227 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Early afternoon water vapor imagery together with radar showed the
remnants of Cristobal drifting northward along the Mississippi River
Valley. PWAT values remain high, and there has been little if any
lighting, so once can assume that tropical rain processes are in
place with this storm.

HiRes models have come into good agreement with the heaviest rain
falling from far southeast Minnesota up through north central
Wisconsin. This could mean areas near Eau Claire, Chippewa Falls,
and Ladysmith Wisconsin could see 2-3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts.

The surface low will track east of the forecast area, which means
cold air advection for our locations, and this really puts a limit
on any severe weather potential. The hodographs simply don't favor
cyclonically rotating storms, and the moist adiabatic profile
supports little if any CAPE. The best chance would be at the onset
of precipitation later this afternoon, but then the LCLs are fairly
high, so overall the severe threat is fairly low.

Farther west, there will be ample surface vorticity along the
approaching frontal boundary, so could see that stretched into some
updrafts as showers and thunderstorms develop. LCLs are again quite
high, so even if there are some funnel clouds reported, the chances
of an actual touchdown are low.

On Wednesday brisk northwest winds will develop as the tropical
system phases with a shortwave trough and causes the surface low to
deepen. Forecast soundings show wind gusts near 40 mph, so will have
to watch this to see if a wind advisory may be needed. A few
lingering showers are possible as well, especially across the south
near I-90. Temperatures will be seasonably cool, with afternoon
highs struggling to reach 70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Only changes made in the extended period was for increasing pops on
Thursday afternoon as cold air aloft together with a weak shortwave
trough should lead to rising air, clouds, and scattered shallow
convective showers. Otherwise high pressure will build over the
Great Lakes toward the end of the week. A few small chances for
showers and thunderstorms are possible early next week along a
frontal zone, but the threat for heavy rain or severe weather is
very low. Temperatures will gradually warm from the 70s later this
week to the the mid 80s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

We remain at VFR to start the period, however showers from the
remnants of the tropical system are approaching eastern MN and
western WI this afternoon, likely dropping CIGS and introducing
-SHRA this afternoon. Winds are also a big concern, with a
 dramatic difference between gusty NW winds in western MN versus
 light and variable winds in the east. Meanwhile a pocket of dry
 air is present in the central part of the state that will need to
 be eroded before we start seeing -SHRA at the surface. MVFR
 conditions are expected as rain pushes in with a slight chance of
 IFR. No TS are expected, with CIGS lifting tomorrow after rain
 departs, at the expense of gusty NW winds lingering.

KMSP...The better environment for showers has pushed east compared
to the previous issuance, with TS not expected. Scattered showers
are covered by a TEMPO group from 21-00Z, while the better chance
for showers waits until after 00Z through early Wednesday morning.
Winds start out light out of the east/southeast, but quickly back
to the NE and eventually NW overnight, increasing in intensity as
well.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA early. Wind NW at 20G35kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW at 15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ015-016-
     024>028.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MNZ078.

&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

MNZ078-085-093-WIZ016-024>028-102015-
Goodhue-Steele-Freeborn-Rusk-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-
Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west
central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Heavy rainfall and flooding are possible through tonight, and a
Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms at times, but the threat
for severe weather or heavy rain is very low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>077-082>084-091-092-WIZ014-015-023-102015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-
Martin-Faribault-Polk-Barron-St. Croix-
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota...west central Minnesota...northwest
Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight. Some
storms may produce localized heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms at times, but the threat
for severe weather or heavy rain is very low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
537 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

MNZ049-057-092300-
Stearns-Kandiyohi-
537 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN STEARNS AND NORTHEASTERN KANDIYOHI
COUNTIES...

At 536 PM CDT, showers and/or thunderstorms were located near New
London, or 17 miles northeast of Willmar. The storm is nearly
stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of funnel
clouds.

Locations impacted include...
Paynesville, New London, Lake Henry, Roscoe, Spring Hill, Regal,
Paynesville Airport, Georgeville, Hawick and St. Martin.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 8 in Minnesota near mile marker 6.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 136 and 141.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

Funnel clouds from this shower/thunderstorm could briefly touch down
as weak tornadoes. People in the effected area should remain inside a
sturdy structure until the shower/thunderstorm passes.

LAT...LON 4552 9453 4533 9472 4532 9477 4528 9477
      4525 9479 4530 9506 4558 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 250DEG 2KT 4535 9486

BPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
616 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

MNZ056-057-064-065-092345-
Chippewa-Yellow Medicine-Kandiyohi-Renville-
616 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA...EAST CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE...
NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE AND SOUTHERN KANDIYOHI COUNTIES...

At 615 PM CDT, showers and/or thunderstorms were located near
Prinsburg, or 12 miles south of Willmar. The storm is nearly
stationary.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of funnel
clouds.

Locations impacted include...
Willmar, Clara City, Renville, Raymond, Sacred Heart, Prinsburg,
Pennock, Kandiyohi, Minnesota Falls, Blomkest, Svea and Willmar
Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 65 and 82.
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 52 and 69.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 108 and 127.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

Funnel clouds from this shower/thunderstorm could briefly touch down
as weak tornadoes. People in the effected area should remain inside a
sturdy structure until the shower/thunderstorm passes.

LAT...LON 4472 9555 4521 9519 4513 9484 4468 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 249DEG 2KT 4496 9511

BPH