Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
403 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

A rather complex convective scenario is unfolding today. A QLCS
stretching from northwest WI to central and west central MN is
maintaining its intensity as it sinks southward this afternoon.
This activity is begin driven by relatively modest MUCAPE and
steep mid level lapse rates. Bulk shear is also modest at less
than 30 kts. The lapse rates have allowed some cores to produce
brief instances of dime to as large as golfball size hail within
the entire extent of the line, but individual cores haven't
persisted for more than 10 to 15 minutes due to the lack of shear
making them impossible to warn for. The surface front is located
across southern Minnesota and MUCAPE increases with southward
extent from the current line of storms. It is not entirely clear
how the transition from the northern activity to southern activity
will occur. The current thinking is the ongoing activity may just
continue sinking to the southeast slowly and become more intense
as it gradually becomes more surface based, while additional
cells (potentially supercells with very large hail and damaging
winds) begin to develop ahead of the current activity near the
surface front toward 00Z. An increasing heavy rain threat is also
developing if the short wave to the north orphans the QLCS in a
east-west fashion early this evening. Flash flood guidance is
only 1-1.5 inches within 3 hours in the metro.

Convection will eventually sink southeast this evening with clear
skies overnight into Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will be continued
warm with boundary layer profiles supporting highs in the mid
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Zonal flow will dominate for the rest of the week before ridging
builds across the Plains this weekend and early next week.

A short wave on the southern flank of a larger system over
southern Canada will traverse the Upper Midwest late Thursday and
Thursday night. This could spark a complex of showers and storms
and there is a Marginal Risk in place across southwestern MN.
Moisture will increase ahead of this feature with pwats rising
toward 1.75 inches, but weak lapse rates may greatly limit the
amount of instability this far north.

The ridging will bring warmer temps in Sunday and Monday following
the passage of a surface warm front. A trough over the Rockies
will allow a feed of robust moisture advection northward into the
Upper Midwest. At the same time, newly named Tropical Storm
Cristobal in the Gulf could be making landfall somewhere on the
northwestern Gulf Coast early next week. The timing of the
trough's advancement eastward next week could allow that system to
directly or indirectly impact the CWA. GFS brings a plume of pwats
greater than 2.25 inches up along the cold front axis into the
region Tuesday. ECMWF is farther east, however indirect moisture
advection would still likely enhance any rainfall totals in
thunderstorm activity with the fropa. This will need to be watched
for a significant flood risk somewhere over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected this morning,
and then widespread thunderstorms are expected across central and
southern MN this afternoon and early evening. A southwest to
northeast oriented line of activity looks to push in from the
eastern Dakotas, possibly reaching northern/western sites between
16z and 19Z (KAXN/KSTC), and central/southern sites
(KRWF/KMSP/KMKT) between 20Z and 22Z. The eastward extent of the
thunderstorms is a bit uncertain, but any activity that holds
together would reach WI sites (KRNH/KEAU) after 22Z. Given more
warm and humid air in place over southern MN, the storms look to
have the potential to be stronger at KRWF and KMKT. Large hail and
strong winds are the greatest risks. Additional (supercell)
storms may develop late this afternoon ahead of the main line, but
those still look to occur south of the TAF sites. MVFR ceilings
and MVFR/IFR look the most probable with the storms.

KMSP...There's been fairly decent consistency pointing toward the
22Z-02Z time frame as having the highest chance of thunderstorm
activity. Large hail cannot be ruled out with this activity, along
with strong wind gusts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Evening MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SW at 10 kts bcmg NW
at 10-20 kts.
FRI...VFR with chance of MVFR/TSRA. Wind NW 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...LS

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