Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
713 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

.Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 701 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

By this morning, a remnant MCV will lift northeast into the area
with the potential for another Monday night. Showers will
accompany the MCV, moving across eastern Minnesota and west-
central Wisconsin leaving behind another day of overcast skies.
Temperatures will rebound into the upper 70s/low 80s despite the
cloud cover. CAMs try to develop another round of showers and
thunderstorms from a potential MCV Monday evening. Forecast
soundings show MLCAPE values between 500 to 1000J/kg with poor
lapse rates and weak vertical wind shear, limiting the severe
threat. However, if storms develop there will still be the
potential for gusty winds and small hail. Monday evening
convection will be dependent on the convective trends across the
southern Plains.

The final system from the southern Plains trough will lift north
across the region Tuesday. After this time, the trough will cut off
over Texas and end the train MCVs. For Tuesday, expect high
temperatures in the upper 70s with mostly cloudy conditions. Tuesday
afternoon/evening presents another chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Potential thunderstorm development will be favored
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin ahead of the surface
front where atmospheric instability will be the greatest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

Zonal flow north of the cutoff system midweek will give way to
troughing across the north central and northeastern U.S. late week
and next weekend. A brief shot of cooler and drier air will
accompany the trough and surface high pressure on Friday. The
airmass behind the trough will be relatively dry, keeping the
rain chances out of the area for the rest of the forecast period.

High temperatures will remain in the low/mid 70s into next
weekend. Expect the cool down to be brief as both EPS/GEFS
ensembles continue to build the ridge back northeast from the
Rockies late weekend and the following week as the trough lifts
away. Looking ahead into the first week of June, the CPC outlooks
favor above normal temperature probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

Generally VFR conditions today and tonight, but we'll see a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, along
with early morning patchy fog today and again on Tuesday. Winds
will be light and variable. Although there is a chance for
thunder, confidence was too low to include mention in the TAF.

KMSP...
Generally VFR conditions today and tonight, but we'll see a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, along
with early morning patchy fog today and again on Tuesday. Winds
will be light and variable. Although there is a chance for
thunder, confidence was too low to include mention in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR/MVFR with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind W/NW at 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPH
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
444 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
260945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
444 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Patchy fog possible this morning, then a chance for thunderstorms
later today and tonight. The threat for severe weather is low, but
a few storms could produce gusty winds and brief downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms through Tuesday night. The
threat for severe weather is low, but a few storms could produce
gusty winds and brief downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

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