Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
106 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

Widespread stratus is in place across the southern two thirds of
Minnesota, eastern South Dakota, Iowa, and Illinois. However, rapid
clearing is taking place in southwestern Wisconsin early this
morning. It is spreading northwest toward east central Minnesota at
about 35 kts, so it should reach the eastern half of the CWA by mid
morning. Diurnal cumulus will still develop late morning and
afternoon as the boundary layer mixes, but this should have no
impact on high temperatures. The clearing will likely miss
southwestern Minnesota today given the southeast flow and the
extensive stratus shield upstream to the Ohio Valley. The result
will be a decent spread in temperatures today ranging from the upper
60s southwest of the Minnesota River, to the mid or upper 70s across
central MN and northwestern WI. Flow will become more southerly
tonight and advect the stratus back northward across the CWA late
tonight and Thursday. Temperatures Thursday should be knocked back
a few degrees with the added cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

The pattern during the long term forecast period will be
conducive to fairly active weather leading up to Memorial Day.

The period starts out with southwest flow and related warm air
advection over western MN on Thursday night, with shower and
thunderstorms expanding eastward across the area on Friday as a
lead shortwave trough ejects across the area. While the weekend
shouldn't be a rainout like last weekend was, occasional showers
and thunderstorms are likely as the parent shortwave trough lifts
from the northern Rockies to northwest Ontario.

At this point, both GFS and ECMWF models lean toward a dry
Memorial Day & Tuesday in the week of the aforementioned
shortwave.

Temperature-wise, this pattern is conducive to above normal
temperatures, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

VFR conditions at the eastern terminals, with MVFR at the western
terminals to start. As this morning's stratus deck erodes from
east to west all terminals will go VFR this afternoon. MVFR
conditions will return overnight as the low clouds build back in
from west to east. Winds will be from the southeast and relatively
light throughout.

KMSP...VFR conditions today. MVFR conditions redevelop late
tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. -SHRA/MVFR cigs possible late. Wind SE 10-15 kt.
Sat...mainly VFR. -SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10 kt.
Sun...Mainly VFR. -SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...CEO
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CEO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1220 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
211730-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1220 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Friday through
Monday. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this
time. However, locally strong storms will be possible Friday night
and Saturday across western Minnesota, and across the rest of
Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
However, SKYWARN spotters should monitor this weekend as
thunderstorm potential increases.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1047 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

MNC143-202145-
Sibley-
1047 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

...FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 93 ALONG THE RUSH RIVER...

Minor flooding will occur in the following counties...

Sibley...

* Until 445 PM CDT Wednesday.

*   Local law enforcement officials indicated that Highway 93 along
    the Rush River which flows into the Minnesota River between the
    towns of Le Sueur and Henderson, is closed due to flood waters.
    The Minnesota River near the junction of Highway 93 along the
    Rush River continues to rise slowly. Until the rivers crest and
    begin to recede, Highway 93 will remain closed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 9396 4459 9392 4459 9389 4455 9390
      4455 9391 4452 9389 4449 9390 4446 9393

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
304 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

MNC143-210200-
Sibley-
304 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

...FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 93 ALONG THE RUSH RIVER...

Minor flooding will occur in the following counties...

Sibley...

* Until 900 PM CDT.

* Local law enforcement officials indicated that Highway 93 along
  the Rush River which flows into the Minnesota River between the
  towns of Le Sueur and Henderson, is closed due to flood waters.
  The Minnesota River near the junction of Highway 93 along the Rush
  River continues to rise slowly. Until the rivers crest and begin
  to recede, Highway 93 will remain closed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 9396 4459 9392 4459 9389 4457 9389
      4455 9391 4452 9389 4449 9390 4446 9393

CTG