Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Twin Cities, MN

860 
WWUS53 KMPX 112038
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MNC015-103-112047-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-200711T2045Z/
Brown MN-Nicollet MN-
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN AND EASTERN
NICOLLET COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4398 9429 4408 9434 4419 9414 4416 9406
      4417 9401 4419 9401 4420 9403 4426 9402
      4432 9390 4420 9370 4419 9377 4410 9377
      4390 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 305DEG 33KT 4402 9386 

$$

MNC013-079-112045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-200711T2045Z/
Le Sueur MN-Blue Earth MN-
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LE SUEUR AND CENTRAL BLUE EARTH COUNTIES...

At 337 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pemberton, or
11 miles southeast of Mankato, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Mankato, North Mankato, St. Peter, Lake Crystal, Eagle Lake, Madison
Lake, St. Clair, Good Thunder, Vernon Center, Garden City, Skyline
and Mankato Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
The Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4398 9429 4408 9434 4419 9414 4416 9406
      4417 9401 4419 9401 4420 9403 4426 9402
      4432 9390 4420 9370 4419 9377 4410 9377
      4390 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 305DEG 33KT 4402 9386 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CTG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1048 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.Updated Short Term for Increasing Severe Weather Threat...
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday evening)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

The risk for severe storms has increased across the region later
today, as SPC has expanded the slight risk of severe weather
northwest along the Upper Minnesota River Valley. Storms are already
ongoing across far western Minnesota ahead of a compact shortwave
trough. These storms are elevated, as evident by their west-to-east
motion that lines up with the H850-500mb mean wind. Later this
morning or early this afternoon the storms will take on a northwest-
to-southeast direction as they become more rooted at the surface and
follow the Bunker's right moving storm motion. Once this happens,
that will be and indicator for the onset of severe weather.

Deep layer shear associated with the aforementioned shortwave
trough, together with MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3000 J/kg will
support longer lived storms and organized convection. The main
risks are hail due to the fatter CAPE profiles, and also damaging
wind if the storms can establish a cold pool. Overall give the set
up, confidence is fairly high that there will be scattered severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly south of I-94. Storms should
exit the region this evening. The higher LCLs will be a limiting
factor in any tornadoes, and that is why SPC doesn't have any
probabilities highlighted across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Next week will feature rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and
temperatures near or slightly below normal.

A large trough over western Canada will dig southeast across the
northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley Monday and Monday
night. Forcing will be decent, especially across North Dakota and
northern Minnesota as the trough becomes increasingly negatively
tilted while it swings through. Low level moisture advection will
be impressive ahead of the trough. Pwats increase to around 2
inches Monday night and a 35-40 kt low level jet will result in
decent moisture flux. A surface low over South Dakota will weaken
as it tracks east toward Minnesota. However, backed surface flow
Monday afternoon and early evening will enhance low level shear
for a time. Storms, possibly supercells, will develop Monday
afternoon over the Dakotas. All severe hazards will be possible,
including tornadoes until the low level flow veers more
southwesterly throughout Monday evening. Therefore, the best
potential for tornadoes will be where convection develops early on
(Dakotas eastward to possibly western Minnesota). These storms
should eventually grow upscale into clusters or multiple large
complexes as they advance eastward across MN and WI Monday night
due to the mid level flow. At that point, wind damage would become
the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible given the
pwats and strong forcing, especially if training occurs on the
south side of the clusters.

The cold front will slow Tuesday with the trough axis swinging
northeast back into Canada. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue along it and intensify during the afternoon across
southern MN into central WI. Some severe weather is possible but
should be more isolated than Monday night.

Models have been trending weaker and less impressive with the
ridging across the southern U.S. for the middle to latter parts of
next week. However, a belt of strong mid level westerly flow and
multiple disturbances tracking along it should bring rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The increased cloud cover and
convective activity should keep temperatures subdued and actually
below normal at times. Periodic severe weather looks likely
across the Midwest, but much of this will depend on mid level
lapse rates, boundary layer moisture, and the character of the
waves. Such elements are not resolved well enough at this range
to get too specific and are subject to influences of prior
convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

A broken line of showers, and embedded thunderstorms, formed over
the past couple of hours across west central, southeast into
southeast Minnesota. These showers/storms should begin to
dissipate and move southeast of MKT/STC/MSP by 13-14z. Otherwise,
the main concern is redevelopment across west central Minnesota
before 18z. Confidence is still low on areal coverage of the
storms redeveloping this morning across west central Minnesota,
but high enough to warrant temporary periods of SHRA/TSRA from
RWF-MKT between 15-18z as timing looks good. Elsewhere, SHRA
looks reasonable until we have a better handle on coverage. RNH-
EAU have the least chance of any TSRA until this afternoon.

KMSP...

Areal coverage is not high enough to warrant anything more than
SHRA before 14z. Otherwise, redeveloping looks to be around 19-21z
but timing remains questionable and could linger after 23z. After
00z, VFR conditions will prevail.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sun...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. TSRA likely late. Wind SE 10 kts.
Tue...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1103 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121615-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1103 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Confidence increasing in scattered thunderstorms later this
morning through early evening. A few storms will likely produce
large hail and damaging wind, generally along and south of I-94.
SPC has expanded the Slight Risk of severe weather across that
area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected through next week. Some
severe weather is possible at times. There is a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms Monday night west of I-35 and a Marginal
Risk east. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall are the
main hazards, but a few tornadoes are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed, especially
locations south of I-94.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
218 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             2 N WINTHROP            44.57N 94.36W
07/11/2020  E1.25 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
221 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             2 S GLENWOOD            45.62N 95.40W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
235 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HAIL             6 SW SEDAN              45.51N 95.34W
07/11/2020  E2.00 INCH       POPE               MN   PUBLIC

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     HAIL             1 SW WINTHROP           44.53N 94.38W
07/11/2020  E1.25 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
239 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     HAIL             1 S WINTHROP            44.53N 94.36W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
242 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             2 NE LAFAYETTE          44.47N 94.36W
07/11/2020  E1.75 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MKM