Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Twin Cities, MN

950 
WWUS53 KMPX 262226
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
526 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

MNC025-262236-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-200926T2300Z/
Chisago MN-
526 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4532 9172 4530 9262 4551 9265 4564 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 262DEG 46KT 4540 9247 

$$

WIC005-095-262300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-200926T2300Z/
Barron WI-Polk WI-
526 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BARRON AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES...

At 526 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Balsam Lake, or
36 miles west of Rice Lake, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Amery around 530 PM CDT.
  Turtle Lake and Clayton around 545 PM CDT.
  Almena around 550 PM CDT.
  Cumberland around 555 PM CDT.
  Barron around 600 PM CDT.
  Cameron around 605 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Cumberland Airport, Mckinley, Rice Lake Airport, Arland, Comstock,
Nye, Range, Wanderoos, Joel and Deronda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4532 9172 4530 9262 4551 9265 4564 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 262DEG 46KT 4540 9247 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

NDC

154 
WWUS53 KMPX 262245
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
545 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

WIC005-095-262255-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-200926T2300Z/
Barron WI-Polk WI-
545 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BARRON AND
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4532 9172 4530 9262 4551 9265 4564 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 262DEG 46KT 4543 9213 

$$

NDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Low clouds, along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed this afternoon in the vicinity of a developing warm
front over western Wisconsin that stretches from a surface low
over west central Minnesota. Temperatures are struggling to get
out of the 60s this afternoon with the extensive cloud cover,
which is also limiting destabilization. Therefore the severe
threat still looks to lie on the northeastern fringes of the
forecast area where shear and forcing influences are better in
closer promixity to upper level energy. The potential
supercellular nature of storms will mean that there will be a
potential for large hail, damaging winds and even a brief tornado
for storms closer to the front that are surface-based.

We see a break in measurable precipitation after midnight through
most of Sunday morning, but then tomorrow signals the onset of a
fairly long period of cyclonic flow that will foster occasional
showers, mainly diurnally-driven, through much of the upcoming
week. Sunday will be an autumn-like day, with brisk
west/northwest winds and temperatures in the 50s and 60s
accompanying the scattered showers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Much colder air with a few chances for rain showers are the main
stories for next week. High confidence remains across deterministic
and ensemble guidance that a ridge over the western CONUS will lead
to cold air from Canada moving into the Upper Midwest over the next
week. Along this northerly to northwesterly flow aloft we will have
a few shortwaves pass through the region that could provide a source
of lift for some showers. The best chances for these showers will be
on Monday and late Tuesday into Wednesday. The best chances for
showers Tuesday and Wednesday continue to be farther north in
Minnesota and Wisconsin closer to Lake Superior. Due to little
moisture being present, especially near the surface, little QPF is
expected with these shower chances.

The coldest air of this period is expected on Thursday night into
Friday morning as cold air advection will be present at just about
every critical level of the atmosphere. In addition, NAEFS
percentiles have 850 mb temperatures in the lowest 10 percent in its
climatology. For these reasons widespread temperatures in the 30s
are expected and how much of the area falls below freezing will be
dependent on cloud cover. Where there are clear skies chances for
frost and a freeze will be higher. Some warming is expected by next
weekend, but unlikely back to the summer like temperatures in
the 80s that we saw this past week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Showers over central MN may impact KSTC this afternoon, otherwise
sites will experience a broken-overcast deck from 10-15KFT. A few
thunderstorms may develop over west central Wisconsin this
afternoon and early evening, but are currently expected to stay
north of the TAF sites. Southeast winds shift to the
west/northwest with 20-30 knot gusts developing tonight at western
sites (KAXN/KRWF) and the other sites on Sunday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
Tue...VFR. Slight Chc -SHRA. Wind WSW at 10G20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Slight Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...NDC
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

WIZ014>016-023>028-271730-
Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest
Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon in west
central and northwest Wisconsin. Scattered severe thunderstorms
are possible, with large hail being the primary threat, but
isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Lows Thursday night may reach freezing for the first time this
season in much of the area, effectively ending the growing
season.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon.

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-271730-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and west central
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Lows Thursday night may reach freezing for the first time this
season in much of the area, effectively ending the growing
season.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
457 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

MNZ052-053-WIZ014-262230-
Isanti-Chisago-Polk-
457 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO...
SOUTHEASTERN ISANTI AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES...

At 457 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Stacy, or 15
miles southeast of Cambridge, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Forest Lake, North Branch, Chisago City, Lindstrom, St. Croix Falls,
Stacy, Frederic, Luck, Balsam Lake, Taylors Falls, Centuria and
Milltown.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4554 9217 4529 9296 4536 9303 4541 9302
      4541 9308 4545 9312 4564 9280 4565 9253
      4573 9252 4573 9237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 233DEG 37KT 4543 9295

NDC