Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Twin Cities, MN

428 
WWUS53 KMPX 240442
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1142 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

MNC153-240515-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-200924T0515Z/
Todd MN-
1142 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL TODD COUNTY...

At 1141 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Browerville,
or 25 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Long Prairie and Browerville around 1145 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4600 9503 4610 9498 4612 9470 4588 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 273DEG 16KT 4605 9489 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

CTG

195 
WWUS53 KMPX 240450
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1150 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

MNC153-240515-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-200924T0515Z/
Todd MN-
1150 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY...

At 1150 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Browerville,
or 22 miles west of Little Falls, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Todd County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4599 9496 4608 9490 4609 9471 4602 9472
      4590 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 273DEG 16KT 4605 9483 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

CTG

624 
WWUS53 KMPX 240501
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

MNC153-240515-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-200924T0515Z/
Todd MN-
1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL TODD COUNTY...

At 1201 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast
of Browerville, or 19 miles west of Little Falls, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Long Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4596 9487 4605 9482 4606 9471 4590 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 273DEG 16KT 4605 9476 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

CTG

889 
WWUS53 KMPX 240507
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1207 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

MNC153-240517-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-200924T0515Z/
Todd MN-
1207 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL TODD COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1215 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4596 9487 4605 9482 4606 9471 4590 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0507Z 273DEG 16KT 4605 9474 

$$

CTG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1111 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

From a big picture perspective, an upper level shortwave trough will
move through the region over the next 24 hours. This will cause a
surface low to form across southern Minnesota, and an area of
precipitation to develop across the Upper Midwest north of the
surface low. However, the exact details of how this will unfold are
challenging, and where/when the precipitation will fall is still
somewhat uncertain.

An area of elevated showers and thunderstorms on the leading edge of
the H850/700 warm air advection were slowly moving across central
Minnesota. HiRes models are pretty vague in the depiction of this
precipitation, but generally does try to focus it across central
Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this evening and overnight. SPC has
continued its marginal risk for severe storms given the CAPE/Shear
parameters, as a few updrafts could produce some large hail.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned shortwave trough will slide southward
across Minnesota late tonight into Thursday morning, and this will
be the focus for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms through
early Thursday afternoon. The track of this wave does seem to be
trending more north-to-south as opposed to east-to-west, and the RAP
does maintain around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, so did hang on to the
chances for precipitation into the early afternoon east of I-35.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

This will be a fairly active period with multiple systems moving
across the Upper Midwest. There will also be a noticeable cool down
from above average temperatures Friday to near average temperatures
this weekend to below average temperatures early next week.

Friday... This could be out last "summer like" day of the year with
warm air advection of greater than 20 degrees C temperatures
advecting in at 850 mb. This should help the surface warm into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. This won't last long as a cold front will pass
through Minnesota and Wisconsin providing some chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. With
the ample warm air advection aloft a stout cap is expected to make
strong to severe thunderstorms unlikely. Rain shower and
thunderstorm chances are greatest north of Interstate 94 where there
is a better low level moisture profile.

Saturday and Sunday... Cooler air behind the cold front and surface
high pressure will lead to a cooler, but generally quiet day on
Saturday. Saturday evening into the overnight could produce some
precipitation as a surface low moves across Iowa. Sunday could be
rather windy due to the pressure gradient across the Upper Midwest
and lapse rates that will favor mixing the higher winds aloft
down to the surface.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central MN will gradually
expand south and east overnight. Sites to be affected will
primarily be KSTC/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. MVFR-level clouds will also
expand into the area on Thursday morning, with scattering out
occurring Thursday afternoon.

KMSP...Have sped up the timing for showers and thunderstorms,
anticipating activity to be near KMSP around/after 07Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind S to SW 10-15G25 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW at 15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...NDC
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
241800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over central
to northern Minnesota, moving into northwest Wisconsin through the
night. A few storms could be strong to severe across central
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with large hail being the
primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday morning over east central
and southeast Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. The threat
for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
957 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

MNZ042-240400-
Todd-
957 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN TODD COUNTY
BETWEEN 10 PM CDT AND 11 PM CDT...

At 957 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Parkers Prairie, or 22 miles north of Alexandria, moving east at 20
mph.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarissa, Eagle Bend and Bertha.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4632 9492 4612 9493 4611 9514 4628 9516
      4629 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 254DEG 16KT 4620 9521

LS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

MNZ041-042-240515-
Douglas-Todd-
1128 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS
AND CENTRAL TODD COUNTIES...

At 1128 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Clarissa, or
20 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Long Prairie, Browerville, Clarissa, Eagle Bend, Rose City and
Clotho.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4610 9471 4589 9483 4602 9520 4610 9536
      4611 9535 4611 9515 4617 9515 4618 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 284DEG 14KT 4605 9499

CTG