Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Twin Cities, MN

471 
WWUS53 KMPX 240414
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1114 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

MNC041-240424-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-200924T0430Z/
Douglas MN-
1114 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4593 9500 4599 9514 4602 9515 4611 9514
      4611 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 285DEG 15KT 4606 9504 

$$

MNC153-240430-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-200924T0430Z/
Todd MN-
1114 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL TODD COUNTY...

At 1114 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest
of Clarissa, or 19 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of west
central Todd County, including the following locations... Clotho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4593 9500 4599 9514 4602 9515 4611 9514
      4611 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 285DEG 15KT 4606 9504 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CTG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
603 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

From a big picture perspective, an upper level shortwave trough will
move through the region over the next 24 hours. This will cause a
surface low to form across southern Minnesota, and an area of
precipitation to develop across the Upper Midwest north of the
surface low. However, the exact details of how this will unfold are
challenging, and where/when the precipitation will fall is still
somewhat uncertain.

An area of elevated showers and thunderstorms on the leading edge of
the H850/700 warm air advection were slowly moving across central
Minnesota. HiRes models are pretty vague in the depiction of this
precipitation, but generally does try to focus it across central
Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this evening and overnight. SPC has
continued its marginal risk for severe storms given the CAPE/Shear
parameters, as a few updrafts could produce some large hail.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned shortwave trough will slide southward
across Minnesota late tonight into Thursday morning, and this will
be the focus for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms through
early Thursday afternoon. The track of this wave does seem to be
trending more north-to-south as opposed to east-to-west, and the RAP
does maintain around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, so did hang on to the
chances for precipitation into the early afternoon east of I-35.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

This will be a fairly active period with multiple systems moving
across the Upper Midwest. There will also be a noticeable cool down
from above average temperatures Friday to near average temperatures
this weekend to below average temperatures early next week.

Friday... This could be out last "summer like" day of the year with
warm air advection of greater than 20 degrees C temperatures
advecting in at 850 mb. This should help the surface warm into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. This won't last long as a cold front will pass
through Minnesota and Wisconsin providing some chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. With
the ample warm air advection aloft a stout cap is expected to make
strong to severe thunderstorms unlikely. Rain shower and
thunderstorm chances are greatest north of Interstate 94 where there
is a better low level moisture profile.

Saturday and Sunday... Cooler air behind the cold front and surface
high pressure will lead to a cooler, but generally quiet day on
Saturday. Saturday evening into the overnight could produce some
precipitation as a surface low moves across Iowa. Sunday could be
rather windy due to the pressure gradient across the Upper Midwest
and lapse rates that will favor mixing the higher winds aloft
down to the surface.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact mainly
northern/central MN this evening, then expand south and east
overnight. Attendant visibility restrictions should mostly stay in
the 5-6SM range, but MVFR-level clouds are expected for a 3-6
hour period on Thursday morning and early afternoon.

KMSP...Spotty showers will be found in the vicinity of the site
this evening. Although confidence is still low, have centered the
next batch of showers around the 11Z-16Z time frame, although
can't rule out hit-or-miss activity prior to that.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind S to SW 10-15G25 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW at 15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...NDC
AVIATION...LS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
241800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over central
to northern Minnesota, moving into northwest Wisconsin through the
night. A few storms could be strong to severe across central
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with large hail being the
primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday morning over east central
and southeast Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. The threat
for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
957 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

MNZ042-240400-
Todd-
957 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN TODD COUNTY
BETWEEN 10 PM CDT AND 11 PM CDT...

At 957 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Parkers Prairie, or 22 miles north of Alexandria, moving east at 20
mph.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarissa, Eagle Bend and Bertha.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4632 9492 4612 9493 4611 9514 4628 9516
      4629 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 254DEG 16KT 4620 9521

LS