Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight) Issued at 300 PM CDT
Fri Aug 14 2020

The key messages are the risk for severe storms this afternoon
across western Minnesota, transitioning eastward during the
evening hours. The main threat for tornadoes is across western
Minnesota, where there is a tornado watch in effect. The risk
transitions to more of a wind threat this evening as storms are
expected to form a line as they move east. There is also a risk of
large hail.

Complex severe weather scenario this afternoon, with a surface low
across the Minnesota/SD/ND border and a warm front draped out
eastward ahead of it. A cold front extended to the southwest, and
this will be the main focus for surface-based convection. The warm
sector in between had residual influences from the cold pool of
the morning convection, and was characterized by southeast winds,
and low T/Td depressions. This led to fairly high storm relative
helicity values and lower cloud bases. Combine that with the
building instability, and this set the stage for the potential of
tornadic thunderstorms as indicated by the Sig/Effective Sig Tor
parameters of 3 to 6. A tornado watch is in effect until 8PM this
evening for parts of west central Minnesota.

This watch may transition to a Severe Thunderstorm watch as storms
become more widespread, develop a cold pool, and transition into a
line of storms. We'll have to see how the convection evolved over
the next few hours before making this decision.

In summary, the parameter space is favorable for organize severe
weather, including tornadoes. The one element that gives some
pause is the idea that the HiRes CAMS show low Updraft Helicity
values, and the area of instability becomes more narrow and lower
with time this evening. In other words, the potential is there,
but this is certainly not a guarantee for widespread severe
weather.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri
Aug 14 2020

There are few if any weather concerns in the extended forecast.
High pressure will build across the region in the wake if this
cold front. That will lead to clear skies with cooler temperatures
and lower humidity values. There is a small chance for some
showers across Lake Superior Saturday night, but those should be
northeast of the forecast area.

A shortwave trough in northwest flow will slide across the Upper
Midwest, but this too should pass through dry. In fact, the
region remains dry through Monday. On Tuesday another shortwave
trough will move across the region, and this could produce a
chance for showers or thunderstorms. Overall expect a fairly dry
forecast into next week, which lines up with the WPC QPF forecast
in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Did delay TEMPO groups for thunder an hour or two to account for
slightly slower than forecast timing with storms. Also added some
MVFR cigs for the first few hours in central MN where some post
frontal strato-cu has developed. Only change needed to TAFs for
Saturday was to back the winds to a bit more of a southwesterly
direction in the afternoon for MN terminals.

KMSP...Worst conditions with the line of storms looks to stay
north of MSP. Line looks to come in around 2z, with heavy rain
only lasting about 30 minutes. Rest of the TAF period looks much
calmer.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
151800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop this afternoon in
western Minnesota, moving into eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin during the evening. Numerous severe thunderstorms are
possible with this activity. Damaging winds and very large hail
are the primary hazards, but a few tornadoes are also possible.
The severe weather threat will be greatest west of the Interstate
35 corridor in Minnesota before storms weaken in Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and this
evening.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
623 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GREEN ISLE              44.68N 94.01W
08/14/2020                   SIBLEY             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SARTELL                 45.62N 94.21W
08/14/2020                   STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4-6 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN AROUND TOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
636 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SSE NORWOOD/YOUNG AME 44.73N 93.89W
08/14/2020                   CARVER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNZ049>051-150115-
Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED...

* Special Weather Statement for...
  Stearns County in Minnesota...
  Benton County in Minnesota...
  Sherburne County in Minnesota...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 643 PM CDT, the public reported heavy rain in the area due to
  thunderstorms. Minor flooding is already occurring.

* Additional rainfall amounts up to a half inch are possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  St. Cloud, Sartell, Sauk Rapids, Waite Park, St. Joseph, Cold
  Spring, Collegeville, Rockville, Luxemburg, Pleasant Lake and St
  Augusta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4547 9410 4540 9427 4547 9446 4561 9440
      4566 9420 4563 9407 4556 9406 4553 9405

NDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
646 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 S COLOGNE             44.74N 93.78W
08/14/2020                   CARVER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW RANDALL            46.14N 94.58W
08/14/2020                   MORRISON           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAILER OVERTURNED AND SOME ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

MED