Tropical Storm Warning 1003, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
119 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...The region remains in an area
of upper level weakness today, with ridges dominating areas to
the east and west. This pattern will begin to break down overnight
tonight with the advancement of Tropical Storm Cristobal
northward towards the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, scattered showers and
storms continue over the open Gulf waters and along the coast
early this afternoon. This summertime pattern will persist through
this evening (with the added potential for a few wet
microbursts); however, with the loss of daytime heating, the
chances of rain and storms will dwindle late this evening and
overnight. Rain chances (as well as thunderstorm chances) will
then increase Saturday from the south from an outer rain band from
Tropical Storm Cristobal as it progresses north. PWATs will
increase from around 1.8 inches this afternoon to over 2 inches by
Saturday afternoon. Although, the heavier rain associated with
Cristobal is not expected to begin until late Saturday into early
Sunday. Winds will begin to increase along the coast late Saturday
afternoon as well, but again, the stronger winds are not expected
to begin until Saturday night. A Tropical Storm Watch was thus
issued this morning for coastal Alabama and the Alabama Gulf
waters (including area bays and sounds) beginning Saturday night.

After high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s this
afternoon, lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s tonight
due to increased moisture. Areas right along the coast could see
even warmer lows, in the upper 70s. With increased cloud cover and
rain chances, highs tomorrow will likely only reach the mid to
upper 80s (with slightly cooler temperatures at the beaches).

The HIGH RISK of rip currents continues for the coastal Alabama
and northwest Florida panhandle beaches through early next week
due to increased swell from Tropical Storm Cristobal. /26

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Scattered showers and storms have persisted early
this afternoon over the Gulf waters and areas near the coast. This
summertime pattern will continue through early this evening, but
decrease tonight. Outside of any storms, VFR conditions and light,
southerly winds will prevail through tonight. Rain and storm
chances will then increase from the south through the day Saturday
with the northward advancement of Tropical Storm Cristobal. This
will also cause CIGs to lower during this time, but are expected
to remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Lastly,
winds will become easterly and be between 10 and 15 knots through
the morning on Saturday. /26

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

     Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ263>266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ630>633-650-670.

&&

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