Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Mobile AL
349 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...21.12Z upper air analysis
shows a well defined upper trough from the TN River Valley to the
central Gulf. Embedded in the trough axis, forecasters find a
cyclonic gyre spinning in place over the southern half of MS. The
formation of deep convection this afternoon is complicated by
deeper layer dry area that is wrapping into and around the larger
scale low at high altitudes. However, surface analysis does show a
quasi-stationary, weak front draped across the central Gulf
coast up across the southeast US. Considering the boundary
serving as a point of focus, precipitable water values ~1.60", and
afternoon instability a modest chance of storms is favored. Even
so, out of consideration for the drier air aloft to offset
coverage, feel the distribution of convection will be more
scattered than numerous. This is in agreement with latest high
resolution convection allowing (CAMs) models indicating scattered
storms going through the course of the afternoon. The latest wet-
microburst assessment shows a moderate risk of some of the
stronger storms having the potential of producing brief strong
gusty winds. There is a marginal risk of severe storms. These, if
they develop, are expected to be isolated in areal coverage with
the main threat being localized damaging wind gusts in excess of
60 mph. Storms can contain locally heavy rain as well. The upper
trough remains in a nearly fixed position tonight and Saturday
with the upper level low lifting more to the northeast over the OH
River Valley where it also fills/weakens by Saturday afternoon.
Expect to see a diurnal decrease in convective activity going into
this evening, then a potential increase in storms over the marine
area by late in the night which may pull up into the coastal
areas. Small chance of morning storms along and south of a line
from Opp to Mobile AL, becomes mostly scattered in coverage
Saturday afternoon as the environment destabilizes.

Daytime highs Saturday will top out in the mid to upper 80s,
although a few spots may hit 90 by early in the afternoon.
Overnight lows tonight will range from 66 to 70 degrees inland
areas, 73 to 78 along the coast. /10

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...The upper
level trough over the area will gradually lift out through
Saturday night as an upper ridge builds westward over the area.
Meanwhile what is now Tropical Depression 14 will emerge into the
southern Gulf and track northwestward likely strengthening into a
Hurricane by Monday. In additional Tropical Storm Laura will track
into the southeastern Gulf early on Monday. Please see the latest
forecast track information from the National Hurricane Center for
Tropical Depression #14 and tropical Storm Laura. This will make
for the very rare occurrence of two tropical systems in the Gulf
at the same time. The main story through the short term in our
area will be increasing deep layer moisture with precipitable
water values over 2 inches. This will lead to scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. While they will be
most numerous during the day, convection will linger late into the
evening and over the marine area at night. The Weather Prediction
Center Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook has coastal Alabama and
the western Florida Panhandle in a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall from Sunday morning until Monday morning.

The additional clouds and precip will keep temps in check with
highs in the mid and upper 80s. /13

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The tropics will
dominate much of the extended. As these systems dance with the
building ridge over the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf.
The strength of this ridge will eventually determine where both TD
14 and Laura go. Uncertainty remains very high with both systems
due to the potential land interactions, ridge strength and also
both systems are still very early in their development phase.
Please see the official National Hurricane Center outlooks for
more information on both of these systems. While it is impossible
to know a final destination of these systems at this time and too
early to know if we will have any local impacts, this should serve
as a reminder to have a plan in place. Outside of the tropical
systems, moisture will continue increase which will result in at
least a continue pattern of scattered to numerous diurnal
convection through the period. While rain chances should decrease
during the overnight hours, coverages should still be higher near
the coast and offshore waters overnight. /13

&&

.MARINE...Main feature dominating the weather over the next several
days will be Tropical Storm Laura. The National Hurricane Center
calls for Laura to track west northwest over the Greater Antilles of
the Caribbean over the weekend then lift northwest up into the
central and northern Gulf as a hurricane by the middle of the week.
The forecast will be highly dependent on eventual track and strength
of Laura. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
436 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

MSZ067-212200-
Wayne MS-
436 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast
of Mill Creek, or 14 miles west of Waynesboro, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Wayne
County.

LAT...LON 3182 8894 3184 8876 3172 8876 3165 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 226DEG 9KT 3173 8889