Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
110 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...I'm seriously running out of
ways to describe being stuck in this weakness between the two
larger upper ridges but luckily a more substantial trough appears
to set up in the coming days. Until then we are just about where
we were yesterday with ridge to west, ridge to our east and here
we are just stuck in the middle with you! Luckily with the passage
of the weak disturbance yesterday, the mid-level boundary has
dipped a little further south towards the I-10 corridor and drier
air has filtered into our northwestern areas as PWATS have
plummeted to near 1.5 inches north and west of I-65. Another weak
disturbance is expect to pivot through the upper level weakness
this afternoon and isolated to scattered showers and storms will
likely develop especially south and east of I-65 where moisture
is maximized and the local sea breeze can provide some surface
convergence. Once again the battle between dry air and the storms
will continue. Given adequate CAPE and DCAPEs approaching 1000 to
1200 J/KG, storms could become strong to potentially severe. The
caveat is that storms have to persist long enough to fight through
the dry air. Typically the key is enough storms in a small enough
cluster to where they modify the environment and this just
depends on how storms develop. Yesterday, they were able to fight
off the dry air and a few storms got strong so I cannot completely
rule out the potential for wind gusts to 50 mph with any storms.
Storms will likely dissipate over the land areas this evening as
storms develop over the Gulf.

Wednesday will be more of a transition day as a little strong
upper impulse really amplifies the weakness and a more substantial
upper trough will begin to take shape over the southeast. With
that we will likely lose our northwesterly winds a loft as they
become more southwesterly. Moisture will begin to slowly uptick
especially over the eastern half of the area where PWATS will
likely approach 1.8 to 1.9. We will likely continue to see the
standard summertime patter with storms over the Gulf and right
along the beaches during the morning before showers and storms
increase inland during the afternoon. With the increased moisture
and a pattern increasingly favorable for larger scale ascent,
precip chances will be on the rise. For now I kept the best
chances over our far eastern tier of counties but might have to be
expanded further west depending on the high-res model trends. Once
again, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out especially given
the higher rain chances maybe leading to more substantial cold
pools.

Temperatures will be about the only thing that doesn't change and
likely won't change for quite some time. Expect highs in the low
90s with some areas potentially reaching the mid 90s before storms
erupt. Lows will remain in the low 70s but will likely begin to
increase with the more southerly return flow and added moisture.
Rip current risk will remain low for Wednesday. BB/03

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions continue in a rather standard
summertime pattern with light and variable winds inland and
southerly winds along and south of the I-10 corridor. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will likely develop this afternoon
along the seabreeze leading to localized areas of MVFR to IFR
visibilities and gusty winds. Storms are expected to dissipate
tonight except along the immediate coast where showers and maybe a
thunderstorm could continue into tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, some
light patchy fog cannot be ruled out over interior locations late
tonight. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
111 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

FLZ205-206-181845-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
111 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Wright,
moving northeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Eglin AFB, Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake
Lorraine, Shalimar and Cinco Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3041 8670 3057 8672 3061 8650 3046 8653
      3043 8657 3044 8658 3043 8659 3045 8659
      3046 8660 3045 8660 3043 8661 3042 8659
      3041 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 242DEG 5KT 3049 8660

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
220 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

FLZ203-205-206-181945-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
220 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 245
PM CDT...

At 220 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest
of Wright, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 8685 3064 8683 3066 8658 3044 8663
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 285DEG 13KT 3056 8675