Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
259 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Aloft, a ridge will
continue to build over the Mississippi and Ohio valley regions as
well as the southern portion of New England and most of the
southeastern CONUS. This ridge also extends westward over the
Plains. However, an upper level low is currently forming over
Louisiana and southern Mississippi - related to Tropical Storm
Hanna now over southern Texas. Meanwhile, a northern stream trough
will begin to amplify and dig down through the northern CONUS
towards the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley regions. This
trough, combined with the low over Lousiana, will break down the
ridge into two parts through Monday. One portion of the ridge will
persist over the Desert Southwest and parts of the
central/southern Plains. The other portion of the ridge will build
over Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and over the Atlantic. At
the surface, high pressure will persist over the southeastern
CONUS today and into Monday. However, by Monday evening, a cold
front will begin to progress southeast over the upper Mississippi
and Ohio valleys.

Current radar shows numerous showers with embedded storms ongoing
over southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana (including the
adjacent Gulf waters). Showers and storms also developed earlier
this afternoon north of Panama City and are moving northwest over
the western Florida Panhandle. Additionally, PWATs this afternoon
are generally between 1.8-2.1 inches with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg.
Hi-Res model guidance suggests this scattered shower and storm
activity will continue, filling in over southwest Alabama and south-
central Alabama through this afternoon and into early this evening.
This has actually already begun with isolated showers forming over
south-central Alabama. The main threats will be gusty winds,
downpours, and frequent lightning with the stronger storms. Some
ponding of areas is possible as well due to saturated soils from
recent rains. This is especially true over portions of the western
Florida Panhandle that saw a decent amount of rain yesterday.

Showers and storms will then decrease through this evening and
overnight tonight; although, activity will ramp up once again late
tonight/early Monday morning over the Gulf waters. Monday then looks
to be a fairly wet day for most areas. PWATs Monday afternoon will
increase to be between 2-2.3 inches area-wide as tropical moisture
is ushered back into the region from the developing upper level low
(energy remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna). Model MLCAPE values look
to range anywhere from 700 J/kg to over 1500 J/kg and SBCAPE values
between 1500-2000 J/kg. Upper level steering flow will also be very
weak, resulting in the potential for training storms. The Weather
Prediction Center has thus outlooked portions of southeast
Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle in
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through Monday.

Lows tonight will then be in the lower 70s north of I-10 and in the
mid 70s south. Highs tomorrow will likely be cooler than we've seen
recently due to cloud cover and showers/storms. Temperatures will
likely be in the lower to mid 80s over southeast Mississippi and
coastal Alabama, with highs in the upper 80s elsewhere. Some areas
may reach 90 degrees over south-central Alabama.

Lastly, due to swell heights around 2.5 feet and swell period at 6
seconds observed early this afternoon, extended the HIGH RISK of rip
currents through late tonight. A MODERATE RISK of rip currents then
follows. /26

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...A broad upper
trof over the Great Lakes region is initially weakly connected
with a modest upper trof over the lower Mississippi River valley.
These two upper trof features separate during the period, with the
northern upper trof moving slowly into the interior northeast
states while the southern modest upper trof continues slowly
westward, potentially dissipating upon moving into Texas. An upper
ridge over the extreme southeast states and eastern Gulf
meanwhile gradually expands westward through Wednesday night
across the north central Gulf and southern portion of the adjacent
coastal states. A surface ridge which extends from the western
Atlantic into the eastern Gulf slowly strengthens and expands
westward into Texas during the period and maintains a moist south
to southwest flow over the forecast area. Precipitable water
values Monday night will be 2.0-2.25 inches with similar values
continuing into Tuesday, then subsidence associated with the
slowly building upper ridge leads to precipitable water values
dropping to 1.7-2.0 inches on Wednesday, then a bit lower
Wednesday night. A diurnal convective cycle is expected through
the period, although high pops on Tuesday (mostly categorical)
will trend a bit lower to mostly likely pops on Wednesday due to
the somewhat less favorable convective environment, and even lower
pops may be warranted. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to
upper 80s then highs mostly in the upper 80s follow for
Wednesday. Lows each night range from the lower 70s inland to the
mid/upper 70s at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is
expected through the period. /29

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...While the upper trof over
the northeast states weakens and moves off into the western Atlantic
through Saturday, a well defined shortwave over the central Plains
advances eastward and amplifies into an upper trof oriented near the
Mississippi River valley.  The upper ridge over the northern Gulf
and adjacent coastal areas meanwhile gradually weakens and retreats
into the eastern Gulf, possibly even further east, then the overall
pattern remains fairly similar through Sunday although the upper
trof looks to weaken a bit.  A pair of surface lows initially
present over Oklahoma and Missouri advance eastward across the east
central states and may bring a weak surface trof into the forecast
area on Sunday.  A surface ridge remains in place along the northern
Gulf through the period, although may weaken on Sunday as the
potential weak surface trof approaches from the north.  Deep layer
moisture looks to be at a relative minimum on Thursday and Friday
with precipitable water values of 1.3-1.7 inches, then steadily
increases through Sunday with the development/approach of the upper
trof to around 2.0 inches, possibly a bit higher.  Expect a diurnal
convective cycle to continue each day and have gone with chance pops
each day, although coverage may be isolated at best Thursday and
Friday. /29

&&

.MARINE...No impacts are expected to the marine area through at
least midweek. However, winds, waves, and seas are expected to be
locally higher in and near any storms that develop. /26

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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