Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
124 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Rain bands from Tropical Depression Eight located
over the central Gulf have brought rain and storms to the area
early this afternoon, particularly near the coast. Gusty winds
have also been observed at various locations near the coast, such
as at BFM where a 35 knot gust was reported in the last hour.
Furthermore, lower VIS (in the heavier showers) and CIGs will
persist through much of the afternoon as the rain bands move over
the northern Gulf coast. Expecting a decrease in activity
overnight, with some recovery in CIGs; however, MVFR CIGs along
the coast will return by Friday morning with a resurgence in the
rain bands. This includes the potential for storms with gusty
winds as well as reductions in VIS in heavier rain. At this time,
only included VCTS at the TAF sites for Friday morning due to
uncertainty in exact timing and intensity. This will continue to
be monitored. East southeast winds are expected to be between
10-15 knots through this afternoon, outside of any storms. Winds
will then decrease to be between 5-10 knots overnight, increasing
through Friday morning to be around 10-15 knots. /26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020/

UPDATE...Have made a minor adjustment to the small craft advisory
to include Mobile Bay and adjacent MS Sound waters for today given
data collection platforms already showing upwards of 15 to 20 knots
of wind this AM. A look at radar wind profiles in the lowest 3 KFT
shows 20 to 30 knots from the east southeast. Thus, accounting for
some of this momentum to mix down enough today would meet criteria
for the upgrade. Considering the wind adjustment, added another foot
to waves over Mobile Bay/MS Sound to around 3 feet. /10

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Although, tropical depression eight is well south of
the central Gulf coast by some 345 miles to the south southwest,
distant rain bands are migrating northwest out of the Gulf waters
and will likely be pushing in/spreading northward through the day.
Thus, will mention cig bases mostly at MVFR categories along the
coastal terminals. Vsby could lower at times to MVFR categories with
passage of shra/tsra, but would not be surprised to see a brief
reduction to IFR/LIFR in bursts of +RA. East to southeast winds
could occasionally gust to upwards of 25 kts today. Briefly higher
with passage of convection. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...An upper level ridge
continues to stretch west over the Southeast to Southern Plains. A
combination of an upper level trough passing along the northern edge
and another moving west over the Gulf of Mexico on the south side
will weaken the effects of the upper ridge. To the south of the
ridge, tropical depression eight over the central Gulf continues
westward. The latest NHC forecast calls for the system to
strengthen over the western Gulf to close out the week before
moving onshore the Texas coast this weekend. For the forecast
area, expect to see a northward surge in significantly more moist
air. Precipitable water values rise to 2.0"-2.2", with the GFS
advertising up to perhaps ~2.4". The higher values in this range
positioned more over southeast MS and coastal southwest AL. Given
impulses embedded in the deeper layer easterlies passing west over
the area, an increase in PoPs from south to north is advertised.
Impacts over the forecast area through the near term are two fold
First off and mainly confined to coastal portions swell of
3-5'/periods of 6-8 seconds will bring a High Risk of rip currents
for the rest of the week. Second, with the tropical airmass in
place, more defined storms will likely be efficient in short
duration high rainfall rates. Considering this, there is a
marginal risk for localized heavy rain which could lead to some
isolated flooding issues in lower lying/poor drainage areas. For
now forecasters anticipate these potential impacts from southeast
MS, eastward to the northwest FL Panhandle. Will see how the
mesoscale sets up by way of boundaries which will be the
determining factor for where storms focus, leading to potential of
repetitive storm motions over the same areas as we close out the
week.

Lows range from the low to mid 70s inland, upper 70s along the
coast. Today, an increase in rain/cloud coverage over the southern
zones supports keeping highs in the mid to upper 80s. Elsewhere, low
to mid 90s along and north of a Waynesboro to Crestview line. Highs
on Friday similar to today's. /16/10

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Saturday night/...The plume of
deep Gulf moisture that was associated with TD 8 begins to shift
west of the local area through the short term as the remnants of
the tropical system move inland over southeast Texas. Still could
see PWATs upwards of around 2.10 inches along the MS/AL coast, but
much of the area farther east and inland should see a drop to
around 1.5 inches as drier air works its way in. With this shift
in moisture, expecting thunderstorm activity on Saturday to be
more focused over the southwestern and coastal portions of the
area. Thus, maintained 50-60% PoPs along the coast and over SE MS,
but adjusted rain chances down a tad over interior portions of
southwest and south central Alabama to account for a more typical
summertime scattered coverage in convection associated with peak
heating. Most convection should dissipate after sunset Saturday
evening with the loss of daytime heating, though showers could
linger through overnight hours over coastal MS/AL where the deeper
moisture resides. Kept low-end rain chances (20-30%) in that area
through nighttime hours to reflect this. High temps continue to
run in the upper 80s west of the Alabama River to low/mid 90s
farther east. Lows each night remain in the low/mid 70s inland and
upper 70s along the coast. /49

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...On Sunday, within a
larger scale upper ridge which extends from the central Plains into
the western Atlantic, a weak upper trof exists from near the mid
Atlantic coast to across the forecast area into Texas (where TD
Eight or remnants thereof will be located).  The upper ridge weakens
and retreats well to the west through Tuesday as a large upper trof
evolves over the eastern states, with this pattern persisting into
Wednesday.  A surface ridge will be generally in place over the
northeastern Gulf through Monday and then retreats further southward
into the Gulf through Wednesday as a weak surface trof advances
southward into the central Gulf coast states (in response to the
developing upper trof and a surface low well to the north).  Deep
layer moisture increases over the area through Tuesday with
precipitable water values increasing from 1.7-2.0 inches to 2.0-2.4
inches, and similar values continue into Wednesday.  Have continued
with chance to good chance pops Sunday and Monday, then pops trend
to likely across essentially the entire area by Wednesday as deep
layer moisture increases along with the weak surface trof
approaching the area. /29

MARINE...Moderate to strong southeast flow sets up over the
open Gulf waters today due to tightening in the surface pressure
field between southeast US surface high and tropical depression
eight moving west over the central Gulf. Due to the evolving longer
fetch lengths and duration, seas build. Small craft advisories
remain unchanged and confined to the open Gulf waters through
tonight. Small craft should exercise caution headlines will be
posted over bays and sounds. Winds, waves, and seas locally higher
in and near storms. Stronger storms will likely contain frequent
lightning activity and brief reductions to visibility in heavy rain.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
106 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND WALLACE TUNNEL          30.69N 88.04W
07/23/2020  M47 MPH          MOBILE             AL   MESONET

            COOPER PARK NEAR WALLACE TUNNEL MESONET
            STATION REPORTS A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH.

&&

21/CL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BROOKLEY FIELD ASOS     30.62N 88.07W
07/23/2020  M40 MPH          MOBILE             AL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KBFM MOBILE BROOKLEY FIELD
            REPORTS A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH.

&&

21/CL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
123 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

ALZ056-059-060-FLZ201-203-205-206-231915-
Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-Covington AL-Escambia Inland FL-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
123 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...ESCAMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH...COVINGTON...OKALOOSA...
NORTHERN SANTA ROSA AND NORTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
CDT...

At 121 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles northwest of Lockhart to 9 miles east of
Crestview, and moving northwest at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Niceville, Andalusia, Opp, Brewton, Evergreen, Florala,
Century, Flomaton, Baker, East Brewton, River Falls, Castleberry,
Jay, Red Level, Laurel Hill, Lockhart, Heath, Gantt and Pollard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8619 3099 8639 3046 8640 3050 8645
      3051 8644 3051 8648 3092 8732 3124 8726
      3155 8688 3153 8684 3152 8671 3147 8640
      3145 8640 3147 8637 3144 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 145DEG 29KT 3107 8640 3073 8642

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
151 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

ALZ262-264-266-FLZ201>204-231945-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-
Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
151 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
BALDWIN...NORTHERN SANTA ROSA AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

At 150 PM CDT, a line of strong thunderstorms are located 11 miles
east of Robertsdale, moving northwest at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gonzalez, Bay Minette, Foley, Pace, Robertsdale, Loxley, Magnolia
Springs, Stapleton, Bon Secour, Molino, Summerdale, Silverhill,
Elberta, Bratt, Point Baker, I65 And AL 225 and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 8785 3030 8773 3069 8792 3071 8791
      3071 8793 3105 8783 3100 8761 3100 8748
      3067 8679 3064 8679 3065 8707 3057 8720
      3048 8743 3046 8740 3032 8758 3035 8757
      3034 8760 3036 8760 3030 8763 3029 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 121DEG 24KT 3062 8753

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