Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...A large complex of
thunderstorms is ongoing over south-central Alabama at this time
per latest radar and satellite observations. Outflow from this
thunderstorm complex continues to spread out to the north and west
across the remainder of the local area, and will serve as a focus
for more thunderstorm development into the evening hours.
Additionally, thunderstorms more isolated in nature are developing
in the heat of the day over interior SW AL and SE MS. This
activity will continue into evening hours as well. The environment
in areas not worked over by morning convection continues to
support an elevated threat for wet microbursts, so cannot rule out
some locally damaging wind gusts in stronger storms through the
remainder of this afternoon particularly for inland areas west of
I-65. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area in a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to reflect this potential.

Thunderstorms will dissipate after dark with the loss of daytime
heating and a brief lull in activity will follow thereafter into
the early overnight hours tonight. By early Thursday morning,
however, more thunderstorms are expected to develop offshore and
along the coast, once again spreading inland throughout the day
Thursday. More focus will be placed on coastal AL and MS on
Thursday (as opposed to the FL panhandle and south-central Alabama
this morning) since the upper low supporting this thunderstorm
activity retrogrades southwest over the central Gulf and opens up
into a weak inverted trough through that time. Temperatures
continue to run a few degrees cooler than recent days, thanks in
large part to the increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Highs on Thursday reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat
indices again expected to remain below advisory criteria and in
the 100 to 105 degree range. That said, a few locations near the
coast could see heat indices briefly reach as high as 108 degrees
during the mid or late morning hours before thunderstorm outflows
and boundary layer mixing mitigate temperatures and dewpoints. /49

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Widespread thunderstorm activity is ongoing across
the area, with a scattered borderline VFR/MVFR cu field prevailing
elsewhere. Thunderstorms will continue through the evening before
dissipating after dark. Some of these storms could produce strong,
erratic wind gusts in addition to locally lower cigs/vis and
frequent lightning. Outside of convection, winds remain generally
light throughout the period. VFR conditions prevail overnight
tonight before more thunderstorms develop along the coast and
spread inland Thursday morning and afternoon. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
103 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

ALZ262-264-FLZ201-151845-
Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia Inland FL-
103 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
BALDWIN AND NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 103 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest
of Bay Minette, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton and I65 And AL 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8782 3076 8793 3076 8792 3078 8792
      3077 8793 3077 8794 3081 8799 3082 8795
      3085 8795 3086 8798 3091 8794 3090 8793
      3092 8793 3093 8792 3092 8791 3095 8790
      3095 8787 3097 8789 3109 8778 3090 8755
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 223DEG 11KT 3082 8786