Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...The classic summertime pattern
rolls on as isolated showers and thunderstorms have already
developed this morning across the western Florida Panhandle. This
storm activity has spread eastward out of our area. Upper ridging
centered over the Florida Panhandle and eastern Gulf of Mexico
will slowly expand westward throughout the period. With
Southwesterly flow aloft, we will continue to have a rather moist
profile with PWATS approaching 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Given the moist
profile, mostly neutral ascent, and MLCAPE values around 2000
J/kg, Storms will likely be driven by mesoscale boundary
collisions including the afternoon seabreeze and any outflow
boundaries produced by this mornings storms. With that in mind,
convection will likely re- initiate early this afternoon over the
inland counties mainly around the highway 84 corridor. Storms
will then slowly expand in coverage as more mesoscale boundaries
are created and collide with time before diminishing later this
evening. Severe potential is once again low but not zero and as
with almost every day along the Gulf Coast from May through about
November there is plenty of DCAPE and potential for storms to
produce gusty winds with any wet microbursts. The biggest limiting
factor will be the ridge overhead and dry air from the ridge was
noted in the mid-levels. This ends up being a catch 22. Storms
will likely struggle with the lack of forced ascent preventing dry
air entrainment; however, the dry air also promotes wet
microburst production if storms can develop enough precip loading.
Like most afternoons, we will have to monitor any clusters that
area able to moisten the environment enough to produce a healthy
enough downdraft.

For Tuesday its will essentially be brush, rise, and repeat. With
the presence of the upper ridge slowly building west, isolated
storms will likely develop along the land breeze over the
nearshore waters and coastal areas before spreading inland and
increasing in coverage throughout the afternoon as boundaries
collide. Like today, severe potential will be dependent on if any
storms can get enough meat on their bones to utilize the full
DCAPE and environmental conditions. A strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out but would be extremely isolated.

Temperatures will remain hot as the upper ridge moves over the
area with mostly low 90s and maybe some upper 80s over the barrier
islands. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, it'll still feel
like a 24 hour sauna as lows barely dip into the upper 70s. Rip
current risk will remain low for quite sometime as winds slowly
become more westerly tomorrow afternoon. BB/03

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions across the area with some
isolated to scattered storms already developing along the I-10
corridor. Storms are expected to continue to spread northward
throughout the afternoon and into the early evening. Gusty winds
and IFR conditions will be possible near any storms. Storms should
diminish tonight and some light patchy fog could be possible over
the inland areas but should remain away from the TAF sites.
Tomorrow morning will be much of the same with isolated showers
during the morning with VFR conditions. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
304 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

ALZ052-053-261>263-292100-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-
Mobile Central AL-
304 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN MOBILE...NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 304 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Movico, or 9
miles north of Creola, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prichard, Saraland, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Citronelle, Creola,
Chunchula, Stockton, Gulfcrest, Axis, Calvert, Mount Vernon,
McIntosh, I65 And I165, I65 And AL 225, I65 And AL 158 and Movico.

LAT...LON 3086 8841 3133 8806 3130 8781 3113 8767
      3090 8789 3091 8790 3088 8791 3070 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 229DEG 14KT 3103 8807