Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...An upper trof over
the eastern states broadens somewhat through Wednesday but
otherwise remains in place. An associated surface low is currently
located over the Great Lakes with a cold front which extends from
near the Ohio River valley to Arkansas. As the surface low moves
further off to the north, the trailing frontal boundary dips into
northern Alabama/Mississippi on Wednesday and stall. A surface
ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf and maintains a
southwesterly flow over the forecast area. This maintains a moist
pattern over the region through Wednesday with precipitable water
values near 2.0 inches. A modest series of shortwaves move across
the area within the base of the upper trof pattern today followed
by a stronger series of shortwaves on Wednesday. This trend and
the moist pattern will support likely pops for much of the area
this afternoon followed by mainly categorical pops on Wednesday.
MLCAPE values of 1500-2250 J/kg are expected today with values
ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg on Wednesday, moderated by increased
cloud cover and somewhat lower afternoon highs. Despite the moist
pattern, the 12Z sounding at JAN indicated abundant drier air
above 700 mb, also indicated in the LZK sounding above 600 mb.
It's difficult to determine how expansive this drier air region
is, but following with the RAP guidance the drier air likely
shifts into the forecast area today albeit with some modification
due to entrainment from convection. RAP DCAPE values of 1000-1500
J/kg hence look possible and expect the stronger storms to be
capable of strong to potentially marginally severe wind gusts this
afternoon. On Wednesday, there is the potential for another area
of dry mid level air to be advected from the northern Gulf into
the area, mainly the southern half, during the afternoon. This
would maintain the potential for strong to possibly marginally
severe downdrafts again on Wednesday, tempered somewhat by the
somewhat lower instability. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible with the stronger storms each day which could lead to
nuisance type flooding issues. Lows tonight range from around 70
well inland to the mid 70s at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will
be mostly in the mid to upper 80s. A moderate risk of rip currents
is expected through Wednesday. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Upper trough
over the eastern states moves little through Thursday before
finally pushing east off the Atlantic coast by Friday night. As a
result, we continue to see unsettled weather under its southern
periphery Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing during daytime hours. At the surface, high pressure
continues to ridge from the western Atlantic into the southeastern
states, maintaining a southerly flow across the region. With
moderate instability and ample moisture available, could see some
gusty winds with stronger storms due to precip loading in
downdrafts. This would be in addition to the typical summertime
threats of frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Rain chances
drop off Thursday night as weak ridging builds over the area, with
only a slight chance for a few isolated storms over southeast
Mississippi on Friday. Low temps range from upper 60s to low 70s
inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Thursday
remain in the mid 80s where coverage of storms will be greatest,
and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. Temps on Friday will be warmer
due to the more sparse coverage in clouds and storms, with most
areas seeing low to mid 90s. Some locations could see heat indices
reaching the 100 to 103 degree range on Friday. /49

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Upper ridging weakens
as another shortwave trough ejects from the Desert Southwest over
the south Plains to our west. This, in combination with the
persistent southerly flow at the surface and in the lower
troposphere, will support diurnal summertime convection each day
through the weekend. Best chance for thunderstorms will be during
afternoon hours, with activity tapering off each evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Above-seasonal rain chances return
everywhere early next week as the upper trough rotates into the
lower Mississippi River Valley and upper forcing increases over
the local area. Temperatures change little throughout the period
(welcome to summer along the Gulf coast), with upper 80s to low
90s expected across much of the area each afternoon. Lows range
from low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast each night. /49

&&

.MARINE...Will have Small Craft Exercise Caution wording this
evening for the near shore waters as well as Mississippi Sound and
southern Mobile Bay due to southwest winds near 15 knots. Locally
higher winds and waves are possible near scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms through the period. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

ALZ055>060-FLZ201-203-205-231915-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Escambia AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
Escambia Inland FL-Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...SOUTHERN CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...CONECUH...COVINGTON...NORTHERN OKALOOSA...NORTHEASTERN
SANTA ROSA AND NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 1212 PM CDT, scattered clusters of strong thunderstorms will
continue through the afternoon across the area.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Atmore, Opp, Brewton, Evergreen, Florala, Century,
Flomaton, McCullough, East Brewton, Uriah, Brantley, McKenzie, River
Falls, Castleberry, Jay, Red Level, Laurel Hill, Lockhart and Dozier.

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3099 8619 3099 8639 3096 8639
      3094 8760 3098 8759 3100 8762 3124 8762
      3125 8765 3135 8763 3171 8615 3162 8618
      3162 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 264DEG 33KT 3105 8656

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

ALZ261-262-264-FLZ201-232030-
Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Inland AL-
Escambia Inland FL-
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EAST
CENTRAL MOBILE...CENTRAL BALDWIN AND NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 239 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Satsuma, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bay Minette, Creola, Stapleton, Axis and I65 And AL 225.

LAT...LON 3069 8796 3071 8794 3071 8795 3070 8796
      3093 8806 3100 8761 3100 8754 3075 8748
      3068 8790 3068 8792 3072 8794 3075 8792
      3075 8795 3068 8793 3069 8794 3068 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 262DEG 20KT 3083 8792

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E POINT CLEAR         30.47N 87.87W
06/23/2020                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SEVEN POWER POLES
            DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 13
            AND COUNTY ROAD 32. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
            PICTURES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND WALLACE TUNNEL          30.69N 88.04W
06/23/2020  M41 MPH          MOBILE             AL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW6967 MOBILE REPORTED A 36
            KNOT (41 MPH) MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

&&

BB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
421 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

ALZ052-053-055-056-059-232200-
Clarke AL-Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-Washington AL-
421 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
MONROE...EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...CENTRAL CLARKE...NORTH CENTRAL
ESCAMBIA AND CONECUH COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest
of Uriah, or 12 miles west of Frisco City, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monroeville, Jackson, Evergreen, Frisco City, Grove Hill, Peterman,
Uriah, Whatley, Castleberry, Excel, Repton and I65 And US 84.

LAT...LON 3164 8690 3154 8685 3120 8690 3127 8768
      3130 8771 3129 8779 3128 8779 3129 8797
      3172 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 283DEG 17KT 3146 8762

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
424 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

ALZ059-261-262-264-FLZ201-232215-
Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia AL-Mobile Inland AL-
Escambia Inland FL-
424 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN MOBILE...CENTRAL BALDWIN...SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles west of
I65 And AL 225, or 7 miles northeast of Creola, moving east at 25
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bay Minette, Atmore, Creola, Stockton, Axis, Mount Vernon, I65 And AL
225 and Movico.

LAT...LON 3081 8792 3089 8789 3090 8789 3092 8791
      3089 8790 3087 8790 3085 8791 3082 8793
      3088 8813 3109 8807 3106 8747 3069 8755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 280DEG 21KT 3095 8793