Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...General VFR conditions were noted over the entire
north-central gulf coast region as bases associated with the
developing cumulus clouds remain above 3000 feet. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into the
evening hours, with local drops to MVFR ceilings and IFR
visibilities possible. Conditions will return to VFR after mid
evening, but as an upper trough approaches from the south late
tonight through Monday, mid level cloud cover will increase, with
high end MVFR ceilings possible after 12z. Winds will become more
easterly, and remain around 10 knots through the night into
Monday. /22

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...An upper ridge will continue to
build over the eastern conus from the western Atlantic through
the near term. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Rockies, with
a southeastward extension over the Gulf of Mexico, will continue
to move eastward over the Great Plains. Will see an increase in
coverage of rainshowers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening hours generally north of I-10 due to decreased stability.
Enough instability is indicated (MUCapes topping 2000J/kg in the
heat of the day) for strong storms to develop. Also, with DCapes
again topping 1000J/kg and dry air in the mid/upper levels, strong
winds are possible if this dry air mixes in to any downdrafts of
the taller storms. Small hail will also be possible with wetbulb
zero heights around 11,000-12,000'. High temperatures today are
trending as forecast, topping out in the 88 to 93 degree range
over most of the forecast area, with mid 80s close to the coast.

An upper level shortwave trough moving through the mean gulf upper
trough late tonight through Monday afternoon will move north over
the north-central/northeastern Gulf coast. Increasing coverage of
convection is expected to spread north over the northern gulf late
tonight through Monday, with the best coverage expected along the
coast near the best upper dynamics from the shortwave trough.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from 65 to 70
degrees, with low 70s at the coast. The increasing cloud cover and
precipitation will limit daytime heating, bringing a cooler day
to the forecast area for Memorial Day than previous days. High
temperatures Monday are expected to range from 84 to 89 degrees,
with low 80s at the coast. With the cooler temperatures over a
significant portion of the forecast area, the chance of strong
storms decreases significantly. With low level winds and swells
increasing along the beaches, a High Rip Current Risk begins on
Monday. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through late Tuesday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through late Tuesday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 11 AM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 11 AM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ631-632.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
541 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-251045-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
541 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop later this morning though
the afternoon. A few may contain gusty winds, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rains. Small hail is also possible with the
stronger thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday through Saturday.
A few may contain gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rains. Small hail is also possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-251045-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
541 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop later this morning though
the afternoon. A few may contain gusty winds, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rains. Small hail is also possible with the
stronger thunderstorms.

There is a MODERATE risk of rip currents along the beaches of
Alabama and northwest Florida panhandle through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday through Saturday. A
few may contain gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rains. Small hail is also possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630-633>636-251045-
Northern Mobile Bay-Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
541 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A moderate southeasterly flow tonight will create hazardous
conditions for small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Moderate easterly winds are expected Monday into Tuesday, continuing
to create hazardous conditions for small craft.

GMZ650-655-670-675-251045-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
541 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ631-632-251045-
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
541 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A moderate easterly flow developing tonight will create hazardous
conditions for small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
208 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

FLZ203-204-242000-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
208 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
SANTA ROSA COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Roeville, or 8 miles east of Milton, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pace, Milton, Bagdad, Pea Ridge, Roeville, Floridatown and Point
Baker.

LAT...LON 3053 8713 3055 8712 3055 8714 3058 8716
      3057 8719 3054 8717 3057 8722 3080 8720
      3073 8681 3055 8682 3054 8700 3055 8700
      3058 8698 3060 8702 3057 8700 3057 8701
      3054 8704 3053 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 094DEG 14KT 3065 8690