Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
655 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Maintained mostly VFR to MVFR conditions across the
area through this evening. An increased coverage of showers along
N-S oriented rainbands that will contain embedded scattered
thunderstorms are forecast after midnight, with mostly MVFR-IFR
conditions due to a combination of CIGs\VSBYs. Expect locally
IFR-LIFR CIG\VSBY conditions within the most intense thunderstorm
downpours. Southerly surface winds of 5-15 knots overnight will
become westerly on Monday as a cold front approaching from the
west moves through the area. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Cloudy and humid through the
next 30 hours with periods of rainshower and isolated
thunderstorms. A light to at times moderate southerly wind flow
prevails. Overnight lows in the mid- and upper 60s over the
interior ranging to the mid 70s along the beaches. Highs tomorrow
afternoon will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

At midday, an elongated mid- and upper low was observed near the
ARKLATEX region. This feature is forecast to continue moving to
the southeast and is forecast to close-off over our region early
Monday morning. There is the appearance of an occlusion with and
associated surface low / frontal system that forces downstream
boundary layer convergence (below increasing diffluence aloft) as
it progresses toward our region overnight. We are carefully
monitoring the evolution of this because past similar features,
especially this time of year, usually tend to over-perform in the
heavy rainfall department - and the ingredients are there. The
sfc-850 hPa moisture transport is notable. A localized sfc-850 hPa
maxima is forecast to be maintained over portions of our region
(mainly translating along with the upper low) from roughly 3-15
UTC. This should result in a region of more widespread
rainshowers, with embedded thunder developing around midnight
towards the MS-AL-LA region and spreading east thereafter. We
will be closely watching any potential training of isolated
updrafts along with back-building tendencies. In all, some areas
could see close to 1.5" of rain, with VERY localized regions
picking up 2-4" (that would be the exception rather than the
rule). Fortunately the system is forecast to be somewhat
progressive with the aforementioned associated cold front moving
to interior SE MS by late tomorrow afternoon. /23 JMM

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...An upper
level low pressure system will translate east of the forecast area
Monday night with chances for showers and thunderstorms ending
from west to east Monday evening as a weak cold front temporarily
advances offshore. Weak surface high pressure briefly builds in
from the north late Monday night before another reinforcing cold
front pushes south into our area and stalls by Tuesday afternoon.
This occurs in response to a large upper level low pressure
dropping south from the Middle Tennessee Valley.

Showers and thunderstorms should develop Tuesday afternoon and
continue through Wednesday in the vicinity of the frontal boundary
stalled in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. Enhanced moisture
convergence and lift associated with a shortwave trough rotating
around the base of the upper low will enhance convective chances
through this time period. Another shortwave trough will rotate
through the area again by Wednesday night with another round of
storms possible in the vicinity of the stalled surface boundary.
/JLH

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper level low
will begin to lift out to the northeast by the end of the week. as
upper level ridging builds over the Deep South through the
weekend. Convective chances should become increasingly isolated
through the weekend and focused along developing sea breeze
boundaries as the atmosphere remains deeply moist and
thermodynamically unstable. Temperatures will rise above normal by
next weekend with lower to middle 90s over much of the area,
except near the immediate coast where highs will top out around 90
degrees. Lows will increase as well into the upper 60s to lower
70s with increased humidity levels. /JLH

MARINE...A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
will continue through Monday. Seas will remain 2-3 feet through
Monday night ahead of a cold front. After the cold front moves
through the area Monday night, expect light to occasionally
moderate offshore flow in its wake through midweek. Light to
moderate southwesterly flow is expected Thursday. /JMM/JLH

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM CDT Monday through Monday
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM CDT Monday through Monday
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
446 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181000-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
446 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-181000-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
446 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches today
and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches Monday
and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-181000-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
446 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
413 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

ALZ051-172200-
Choctaw AL-
413 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES... NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located over
northern Choctaw County Alabama and was moving north at 25 to 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman and Pennington.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3230 8795 3229 8794 3228 8794
      3230 8796 3228 8802 3226 8801 3215 8802
      3214 8804 3211 8805 3209 8804 3206 8807
      3207 8810 3206 8811 3203 8811 3201 8846
      3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 194DEG 24KT 3214 8827

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
545 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

ALZ052-261-MSZ076-079-172330-
Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS-
545 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN GEORGE
AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 544 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of
Gulfcrest, or 12 miles east of Lucedale, moving north at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8844 3120 8853 3122 8821 3080 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 177DEG 26KT 3095 8838

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

ALZ051>053-180015-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-Washington AL-
630 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN
CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Chatom,
moving north at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chatom, Tibbie, Millry, Silas, Coffeeville, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8811 3131 8837 3200 8839 3197 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 185DEG 39KT 3144 8825

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