Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
146 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...A warm and moist airmass is
in place across the forecast area this afternoon underneath
increasing zonal flow aloft. Temperatures are warming into the
upper 70s to mid 80s around the region, while surface dewpoints
are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This thermodynamic environment
is contributing to MLCAPE values around 2000 J/KG across our
forecast area this afternoon. The increased mid to upper level
flow is resulting in effective bulk shear values between 40-50
knots across the area, with the highest bulk shear values clipping
interior portions of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL.
A subtle shortwave impulse moving east-southeast toward our
forecast area from northern and central MS will aid in the
development of scattered showers and storms, initially just N/NW
over our area by early this afternoon, but these could develop
and/or move into our interior southeast MS and southwest/south
central AL counties later this afternoon into early this evening.
Effective bulk shear values up to around 50 knots, MLCAPE values
around 2000 J/KG and steepening low to mid level lapse rates up to
around 7 C/KM will favor storm organization over our interior
zones, with a few storms potentially becoming capable of producing
damaging winds and hail to the size of quarters or larger. SPC
has outlined a Slight Risk of severe storms especially along and
north of the U.S. Hwy 84 corridor this afternoon. A more Marginal
severe risk extends as far south as a Wiggins, MS to Crestview, FL
line. We are already seeing storms develop along a zone of
moisture convergence across interior portions of the northwest FL
panhandle and into Baldwin county AL. Additional storms could
develop along the I-10 corridor through the afternoon, a few of
which could also have strong enough updrafts for a marginal
wind/hail threat. Storms may linger into early this evening,
before gradually diminishing after around 9 PM.

Patchy fog may develop across central and southern portions of the
region late tonight into early Thursday morning.

A cold front will push southward into central portions of MS/AL
overnight into early Thursday morning before pushing southward to
near the coast by Thursday afternoon. A secondary line of showers
and thunderstorms may develop along this boundary to the north of
our CWA overnight into early Thursday morning, but high resolution
and short range models have shown a gradual weakening trend with
this convection as it moves into interior portions of the forecast
area early Thursday morning. Still cannot rule out a brief strong
storm north of the Hwy 84 corridor early Thursday morning, but the
better potential for severe storms are currently expected to
remain located to the north and northwest of our CWA overnight
into early Thursday morning. For now we plan to maintain a low
chance of showers and storms along the front as it moves south
across our region Thursday morning. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR this afternoon though localized MVFR will be
possible, especially near scattered SHRA/TSRA that will develop
around the region into early this evening. IFR/LIFR conditions
return late tonight into early Thursday morning with the
development of stratus and patchy fog. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
445 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-090945-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
445 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible across our area
today, particularly along and north of a line extending from
Andalusia, AL to Leakesville, MS. The primary threats are
localized damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

We are closely monitoring severe thunderstorm potential with a
weather system moving through the area this weekend. We will
continue to update with more details as the week progresses and
forecast confidence increases.

Rip current risk is expected to increase this weekend due to
strengthening onshore winds and swell.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected
through Tuesday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-090945-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
445 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A moderate offshore flow may create conditions hazardous for
small craft over unprotected Gulf waters Thursday and Friday

Moderate to strong onshore flow returns over the weekend and may
continue to make conditions hazardous for small craft.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
140 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ALZ059-060-FLZ203-205-081930-
Escambia AL-Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
140 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN OKALOOSA
AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 139 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest
of Baker, or 19 miles southeast of Brewton, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Laurel Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3078 8639 3083 8701 3101 8701
      3105 8638 3099 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 270DEG 38KT 3092 8683