Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
115 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Cloudy and humid through the
next 30 hours with periods of rainshower and isolated
thunderstorms. A light to at times moderate southerly wind flow
prevails. Overnight lows in the mid- and upper 60s over the
interior ranging to the mid 70s along the beaches. Highs tomorrow
afternoon will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

At midday, an elongated mid- and upper low was observed near the
ARKLATEX region. This feature is forecast to continue moving to
the southeast and is forecast to close-off over our region early
Monday morning. There is the appearance of an occlusion with and
associated surface low / frontal system that forces downstream
boundary layer convergence (below increasing diffluence aloft) as
it progresses toward our region overnight. We are carefully
monitoring the evolution of this because past similar features,
especially this time of year, usually tend to over-perform in the
heavy rainfall department - and the ingredients are there. The
sfc-850 hPa moisture transport is notable. A localized sfc-850 hPa
maxima is forecast to be maintained over portions of our region
(mainly translating along with the upper low) from roughly 3-15
UTC. This should result in a region of more widespread
rainshowers, with embedded thunder developing around midnight
towards the MS-AL-LA region and spreading east thereafter. We
will be closely watching any potential training of isolated
updrafts along with back-building tendencies. In all, some areas
could see close to 1.5" of rain, with VERY localized regions
picking up 2-4" (that would be the exception rather than the
rule). Fortunately the system is forecast to be somewhat
progressive with the aforementioned associated cold front moving
to interior SE MS by late tomorrow afternoon. /23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...As an upper low approaches from the west, and
eventually passes the region just after the end of the 17.18\18.18
utc TAF period, will have mostly VFR to MVFR conditions across
the area. There will be two times when CIGs\VSBYs could be lower:
1) through 18.00 UTC this evening with increased coverage of
afternoon showers along N-S oriented rainbands that will contain
sct-isold thunder. There will be a trend to shift this more over
the interior as sunset approaches. 2) again after midnight,
conditions become mostly MVFR-IFR due to a combination of
CIGs\VSBYs as a general area of more widespread rainshowers
develops with embedded isold- sct thunder regionwide. This will
develop further west of the MS-AL border later tonight and will
move slowly east through the mid-morning hours Monday. Expect
locally IFR-LIFR CIG\VSBY conditions within the most intense
thunderstorm downpours. Surface winds remain form a mostly
southerly direction 5-15 kt, becoming more southwesterly by
period's end from west to east as a cold front approaches form the
west. /23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Monday evening
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Monday evening
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
446 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181000-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
446 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-181000-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
446 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches today
and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches Monday
and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-181000-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
446 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
233 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

ALZ051-052-MSZ067-075-076-172030-
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
233 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN PERRY...
WAYNE AND NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 231 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Richton, moving northeast at 35 mph. Other isoilated thunderstorms
will continue developing near and around this storm during the
next hour.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and pea-sized hail will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Richton, Clara, Beaumont, New Augusta, Millry, State
Line, Buckatunna, Silas, Gilbertown and Toxey.

LAT...LON 3143 8915 3143 8894 3182 8894 3185 8865
      3189 8848 3200 8846 3198 8808 3195 8812
      3194 8811 3116 8858 3115 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 205DEG 30KT 3135 8881

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
325 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

ALZ051-052-MSZ067-172115-
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Wayne MS-
325 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest
of Butler, moving northeast at 30 mph. Other strong storms are
developing across Choctaw County as well and this trend will
continue during the next hour.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with
these thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Butler, Clara, Lisman, Millry, Silas, Pennington,
Gilbertown and Toxey.

LAT...LON 3231 8794 3228 8802 3218 8801 3214 8804
      3209 8804 3206 8807 3205 8812 3201 8811
      3199 8808 3196 8809 3195 8812 3194 8810
      3191 8811 3156 8833 3157 8894 3180 8893
      3183 8890 3185 8865 3190 8847 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 208DEG 24KT 3203 8833