River Flood Warning 40, NWS Mobile, AL

408 
WGUS84 KMOB 140046
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
746 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
 
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-140116-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-200314T0600Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200313T1220Z.200313T2215Z.UU/
746 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Escambia River Near Century
* At 7PM Friday the stage was 16.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* At 17.0 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
912 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

.UPDATE...While area observations indicate a few areas of patchy
dense fog remain, visibilities overall are quickly improving over
land areas and will continue to do so. Therefore, the Dense Fog
Advisory has been allowed to expire for land areas. There is still
dense fog over the marine area, especially over Mobile Bay. The
Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues until Noon and we may have to
extend this further. In addition, another round of dense fog is
likely over land areas tonight and we will be assessing the need
for another Dense Fog Advisory tonight. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...We opted to expand the
Dense Fog Advisory to include the rest of Baldwin/Mobile counties,
as well as Stone/George counties in southeast MS based on area
webcams/traffic cams, observations, and HRRR/RAP model trends. The
advisory remains in effect until 9 AM CDT over inland areas. /21

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Areas of LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and visibility
reductions due to fog will impact coastal portions of our area
through around 13.14Z or so before conditions gradually improve to
MVFR to VFR through mid to late morning. VFR conditions are then
anticipated this afternoon and evening, before another round of
low ceilings and fog (potentially down to LIFR to VLIFR
thresholds at times) develop across much of the region late
tonight through early Saturday morning. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...A warm and moist
pattern is in place across the north central Gulf Coast region
early this morning underneath zonal mid level flow and with S/SW
low level flow on the western periphery of a surface ridge of high
pressure nosing westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
GOES-16 imagery shows some breaks in the cirrus and low stratus
across portions of the western FL panhandle and adjacent south
central AL, where areas of fog are beginning to develop as of 3 AM
CST. 13.03Z SREF probabilities of visibility < 1 mile are
greatest across interior portions of the western FL panhandle and
extending into south central AL through the early morning hours,
while the past couple of runs of the RAP/HRRR also trend areas of
dense fog development in a zone from southern Baldwin county
through northwest FL and adjacent Escambia/Covington counties in
south central AL. Given that visibility has already come down to
1/4 mile at Crestview (KCEW), and is also dropping around Eglin
Duke Field (KEGI) and Whiting Field (KNSE), we have opted to
expand the Dense Fog Advisory for interior portions of the western
FL panhandle, as well as Escambia/Covington counties in south
central AL through 9 AM CDT. Area observations indicate that
little in the way of fog has developed farther southwest into
Mobile county and adjacent bay waters so far, probably due to
thicker cloud cover. There are still some indications that patchy
dense fog could develop between 5-9 AM in southern Mobile county,
so will keep the advisory in effect there for now and monitor
trends over the next few hours.

Little change was made to the rest of the forecast. A weak front
will slip southward toward interior southeast MS and southwest AL
this afternoon and evening and may provide focus for a few light
showers over our northern zones. Drier and more subsident conditions
will be in place over our central/southern CWA underneath weak
shortwave ridging aloft. Dry conditions are currently anticipated
area wide on Saturday. Conditions may be more favorable for fog
development tonight, especially along and south of a Wiggins, MS to
Andalusia, AL line where we may have to monitor for another
potential Dense Fog Advisory. Above normal temperatures and muggy
conditions will otherwise persist through Saturday. Highs today and
Saturday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, and in the
mid 70s along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range in the
upper 50s to lower 60s over most locations. /21

SHORT TERM /Saturday Night Through Sunday Night/...A persistent
upper level ridge over the Gulf builds into the Southeast, which
allows the general zonal flow aloft to continue through the
weekend. Further to the west, an upper level low develops off the
PacNW Coast Saturday night and slowly drops south along the coast
through early next week. Meanwhile, a shortwave moving through the
Plains will slide toward the Mid Atlantic (staying north of the
ridge) Saturday night into early Sunday.

Tomorrow night will be dry. Patchy fog is expected to set up along
the coast again late tomorrow night through the mid-morning hours on
Sunday. There remains a chance for showers and potentially a few
storms on Sunday afternoon as another weak front (associated with
the aforementioned shortwave) sags toward our northernmost counties.
Showers on Sunday will be diurnally driven and should taper off by
early evening. Daytime high temperatures will top out in the 70s and
80s on Sunday afternoon with some communities even rising into the
mid 80s. By late Sunday night, the signal for fog looks a little
weaker near the coast. 07/mb

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Zonal flow is the name
of the game and with that comes a rather persistent yet complicated
pattern. One day will likely bleed into the other as a train of
very subtle and weak shortwaves move through the upper pattern.
The conductor of this train will be an expansive upper ridge
centered over the central Gulf. The strength of this ridge will
determine how much rain we actually see next week. The first of
many shortwaves will pass to our north on Monday and as a result a
weak surface boundary will slip down and stall either over our
area or just north of the area. I refuse to call it a cold front
as we appear to have reached the time of the year where actual
cold fronts just don't happen anymore. Rain chances will be
highest over the northwest where forcing is highest and within the
vicinity of the surface boundary. As each subtle wave passes by,
rain chances will fluctuate with the diurnal cycle. Showers and
storms will be most likely over our northern areas and probably
drift south throughout the afternoon but at this range its just
too far to really lock down when and where showers and storms will
be present.

Outside of the almost summertime like rain chances, southerly
surface flow will likely develop during the middle of the week. With
southerly flow comes the potential for advection fog to develop
across our coastal areas. The one caveat to this is that we will be
on the warm side for the foreseeable future. Since advection fog
requires cold water to develop, several days of warm temperatures
might shut off the gigantic fog machine to our south. Unfortunately,
southerly surface flow will also mean it will get hot and muggy next
week. Dewpoints will slowly climb to near 70 degrees with high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s inland. Dewpoints will linger in
the mid 60s at night and low temperatures will do the same. OVerall,
spring is here and looks like it will stay until the next potential
system comes through just outside the period. BB/03

MARINE...The primary marine impact through the weekend will be fog
development over bays, sounds, and portions of the adjacent Gulf
waters out 20 nm, especially during the overnight and early morning
hours. A light southeasterly to southerly flow will otherwise
continue over the marine area through Saturday as a weak surface
ridge of high pressure extends westward over the northern Gulf. The
ridge builds over the marine area late this weekend, with light
offshore flow both Saturday and Sunday night, with light onshore
flow returning during the day Sunday and Monday. Light to
occasionally moderate southeasterly flow otherwise looks prevalent
through the early to middle part of next week. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ630>636-650-655.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
705 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141215-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
705 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog will impact locations mainly near the coast
early this morning. Another round of dense fog may impact the
region again late tonight, especially along and south of a Wiggins
Mississippi to Andalusia Alabama line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Patchy dense fog will be possible late at night and early in the
morning through early next week, especially near the coast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-141215-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
705 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog will impact area bays, sounds, and near shore
waters at times through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Dense fog remains possible during overnight and early morning
hours through the weekend, particularly over nearshore waters out
20 NM and area bays and sounds.