Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 4, NWS Mobile, AL

January 3, 2020George County, Greene County, Perry County, Mississippi

NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at Jan 3, 2020, 2:01 PM CST for George County, Greene County, Perry County, Mississippi. It took effect at Jan 4, 2020, 7:30 PM CST. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 3, 2020, 2:01 PM CST (20:01 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 4, 2020, 7:30 PM CST
Expired
Jan 9, 2020, 6:00 AM CST
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Perry County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Leaf River near McLain (MCLM6). The gauge peaked at 18.89 ft at Jan 6, 2020, 8:00 AM CST.

actionminormoderate1015202501/0301/0401/0501/0601/0701/0801/0901/10
Action stage
13 ft
Minor stage
18 ft
Moderate stage
24 ft
Major stage
28 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02475000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

788 
WGUS44 KMOB 032001
FLWMOB
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
201 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020



...The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a flood warning for the 
following rivers in Mississippi... 

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties.

.Heavy rainfall is forecast to occur over the next 24 hours. As a result...river
levels are forecast to rise and a flood warning is now in effect. It is 
emphasized that the following forecast is based on the expected rainfall during 
the next 24 hours. If less rainfall occurs...it may be necessary to revise this 
stage forecast downward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-042001-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0004.200107T0600Z-200107T1800Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200107T0600Z.200107T0600Z.200107T1200Z.NO/
201 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Leaf Near Mclain
* From late Monday night until Tuesday afternoon
* At 1 PM Friday the stage was...13.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast 
* Flood stage is 18 feet. 
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Tuesday morning and continue to 
  rise near 18 feet by early Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by Tuesday afternoon.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
11 follow-up statements
016 
WGUS84 KMOB 040129
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
729 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-050128-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.200105T0000Z-200108T1800Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200105T0000Z.200106T0000Z.200108T1200Z.NO/
729 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* From tomorrow evening until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 7 PM Friday the stage was 14.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening and continue to rise 
  near 18.5 feet by Sunday evening. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  Wednesday morning.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
764 
WGUS84 KMOB 041718
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1118 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-051717-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.200105T0130Z-200108T1200Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200105T0130Z.200106T0600Z.200108T0600Z.NO/
1118 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* From this evening until Wednesday morning.
* At 10 AM Saturday the stage was 17.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to rise near 
  19 feet by Monday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by early
  Wednesday morning.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
505 
WGUS84 KMOB 050410
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1010 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-060410-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200108T1800Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200107T0000Z.200108T1200Z.NO/
1010 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 9 PM Saturday the stage was 18.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 19.1 feet by Monday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage  Wednesday morning.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
475 
WGUS84 KMOB 051543
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
943 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-061541-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200109T0600Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200107T0000Z.200109T0000Z.NO/
943 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Wednesday night for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was 18.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 19 feet by tomorrow evening. The 
  river will fall below flood stage  Wednesday evening.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
844 
WGUS84 KMOB 060048
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
648 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-070047-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200109T0600Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200107T0000Z.200109T0000Z.NO/
648 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 6PM Sunday the stage was 18.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 19 feet by tomorrow evening. The 
  river will fall below flood stage Wednesday evening.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-070047-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.200104T1415Z.200108T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
648 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 6PM Sunday the stage was 22.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24 feet by Wednesday morning then 
  begin slowly falling.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
496 
WGUS84 KMOB 061720
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1120 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-071720-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200109T0800Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200107T0000Z.200109T0200Z.NO/
1120 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Wednesday night for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 18.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 19 feet by this evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage  Wednesday evening; however, heavy rainfall later 
  this week could lead to additional rises by the weekend.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
678 
WGUS84 KMOB 070055
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
655 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties.  
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-080053-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200109T0300Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200106T1615Z.200108T2100Z.NO/
655 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Wednesday evening.
* At 6PM Monday the stage was 18.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Wednesday 
  afternoon; however, heavy rainfall later this week could lead to 
  additional rises by the weekend.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near 
  the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-080053-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.200104T1415Z.200108T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
655 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 6PM Monday the stage was 23.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by Wednesday morning 
  then begin falling; however, heavy rainfall later this week could lead 
  to additional rises by the weekend.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

MSC039-041-059-080053-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0005.200107T1200Z-200109T0600Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.200107T1200Z.200107T1200Z.200109T0000Z.NO/
655 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* From tomorrow morning until late Wednesday night.
* At 6PM Monday the stage was 21.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning. The river will 
  then fall below flood stage Wednesday night; however, heavy rainfall 
  later this week could lead to additional rises by the weekend.
* At 22 feet...Flood Stage. Water approaches homes in west Merrill.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$
531 
WGUS84 KMOB 071536
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
936 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-081535-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200109T0600Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200106T1615Z.200109T0000Z.NO/
936 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Wednesday night for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 18.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow evening. Heavy rain this 
  weekend could lead to continued flooding.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
715 
WGUS84 KMOB 080042
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
642 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-090041-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200109T0600Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200106T1615Z.200109T0000Z.NO/
642 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 6PM Tuesday the stage was 18.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow evening;
  however, heavy rain this weekend could lead to continued flooding.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-090041-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.200104T1415Z.200108T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
642 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until further notice.
* At 6PM Tuesday the stage was 23.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24 feet by tomorrow morning then 
  begin falling; however, heavy rain this weekend could lead to continued 
  flooding.
* At 26 feet...Flooding at the highway bridge begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$
523 
WGUS84 KMOB 081634
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1034 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-091634-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200109T1800Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200106T1615Z.200109T1200Z.NO/
1034 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow morning. Additional
  rainfall this weekend could lead to continued flooding. 
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$
622 
WGUS84 KMOB 090150
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
750 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2020
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-091200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200109T1200Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.200104T2145Z.200106T1615Z.200109T0600Z.NO/
750 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday morning.
* At 7 PM Wednesday the stage was 18.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 3, 11:53 AM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 11:53 AM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1153 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Two areas of precipitation across our area this
afternoon. The first is a line of storms over the northwest
Florida Panhandle and the second is a band of rain over
southeastern Mississippi associated with a cold front. Both bands
will continue to slowly push east throughout the day with IFR to
localized LIFR visbys. Upstream surface obs over Mississippi and
Louisiana, show MVFR to IFR cigs associated with the band of
precip. Models have struggled with resolving this band and thus
assumed MVFR to IFR cigs will also progress east over the area
with the precipitation. Rain will likely subside late tonight.
Behind the front winds will be out of the northwest at around 10
knots. BB/03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1108 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.

UPDATE...03.15Z surface analysis shows frontal boundary has
slowed becoming quasi-stationary along and east of I-65. Upstream,
secondary front was draped from the Mid-South to southeast TX was
showing a better southeastward advance. High level flow remains
southwesterly with a long wave positive tilt trof axis over the
southern Plains to northern Mexico. Impulses caught up in the
southwest flow aloft maintains an unsettled weather pattern with
radar continuing to show areas of showers streaming northeast
behind the surface front. Forecasters are continuing to monitor
the western Florida panhandle for a marginal risk of severe storms
as the front has yet to clear this area as the thermo-dynamic,
bulk shear and low level storm relative helicity profiles are
more in phase over these areas. Mixed layer CAPE ~1000 J/KG,
0-6KM Bulk shear magnitudes in excess of 50 kts, 0-1 KM storm
relative helicity values from 150-250 m2/s2 would all support an
occurrence of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Radar
trends have shown some increase in convection over the northwest
FL Panhandle and will continue to monitor how this evolves into
the remainder of the morning and afternoon for possible statements
and perhaps warnings.

Upstream, an additional round of showers with embedded convection
has been filling in over southeast LA and southwest MS. Will be
watching how this evolves as it translates eastward for any heavy
rain/flooding threat. /10

MARINE...Dense fog has lifted and forecasters cancelled the dense
fog advisory. There still could be some lingering patchy fog over
bays and sounds over the western Florida panhandle for a while
longer. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...LIFR to IFR cigs and visibilities through about
03.16z followed by mostly MVFR cigs and visibilities through
04.12z. Lower cigs and visibilities mostly in low stratus,
moderate to heavy rain and patchy fog today and tonight. Winds
will become mostly northwest at 10 to 20 knots through 04.12z.
Low level wind shear noted earlier ahead of a cold front will
become mostly unidirectional in the wake of the front later this
morning continuing through tonight. 32.ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...Main concern through
tonight continues to be the threat for some localized flooding
generally east of a line stretching from just south of Camden in AL
to south of Leakesville in MS which includes all locations in
Northwest Florida. As a result a Limited Risk for flash flooding has
been posted in these areas which is now a county or two further to
the west than earlier anticipated. The best chance for Areal or
Flash Flooding to occur in the Risk area will be in urban locations
and areas with poor drainage. Rainfall totals of of 1 to 2 inches
county wide with locally higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches are still
possible. Stay tuned for further updates throughout the day on this
potential flooding situation.

As for severe weather a Marginal Risk also continues for locations
generally east of the I-65 corridor which includes all locations in
Northwest Florida. Most model guidance this morning continues to
show elevated values of vertical and directional shear to continue
across much of the eastern half of the forecast area through about
noon today. 0 to 3 km helicity values range from 100 to 200 m2/s2
along with bulk shear values ranging from 40 to 65 knots combined
with marginal surface based instability ranging 500 to 1000 j/kg will
continue in the Risk area through this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move mostly northeast at 25 to 30
knots through this afternoon.

In the Big picture a deep upper trof stretching from the northern
Plains to lower Tx and Mexico this morning will continue to shift
eastward stretching from the Great Lakes to the lower MS River
valley by 12z Fri. Near the surface a cold front moving across the
forecast area early this morning will move east of the area by early
to mid afternoon with plenty of residual moisture in the wake of the
front mostly in the form of light to moderate rain and low clouds
through tonight and early Sat.

Temperatures will begin to lower in the wake of the front with highs
today still reaching the lower to middle 70s east of the front and
the middle to upper 60s to the west. Lows tonight will range from
the middle 40s to lower 50s to the west and the lower to middle 50s
to the east and along the coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...Upper level trough
will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf
Coast states on Saturday. Lingering moisture just ahead of this
system supports keeping a slight chance of rain in the forecast
early Saturday morning. A much drier airmass will otherwise be
ushered into our forecast area this weekend in the wake of the
passing trough and cold front. Highs Saturday and Sunday will
mostly range in the upper 50s to lower 60s, while lows Saturday
night fall into the lower to mid 30s over most locations north of
I-10 and in the upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Lows on
Sunday night will be slightly warmer in the upper 30s to lower
40s. /21

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Dry conditions prevail
Monday, with the next chance of rain arriving Monday night and
Tuesday with the next passing cold front. Conditions dry out again
for Wednesday and Wednesday night, with yet another approaching
system bringing back a chance of showers for Thursday and Thursday
night. Temperatures will be slightly above normal for Monday and
Tuesday, slightly cooler on Wednesday, then back to near to just
above normal for Thursday. /21

MARINE...Areas of dense fog will continue over the near shore waters
of Alabama and Northwest Florida early today ahead of a cold front
that will move across the region through this afternoon. A moderate
to occasionally strong southerly wind flow early today will shift
northwest then gradually build through early Saturday night. A light
to moderate southerly flow will redevelop Monday and continue
through early Tuesday ahead of another cold front approaching from
the west. A moderate to strong northerly flow is expected in the
wake of the front through midday Wednesday. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday
     night for GMZ630>636-650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     GMZ670-675.

&&

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http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 3, 1:55 PM CST, 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
155 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-042000-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
155 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Limited Risk of flooding possible through this evening. A marginal
risk of severe weather remains in place through late afternoon for
portions of the northwest Florida panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-042000-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
155 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Limited Risk of flooding possible through this evening. A marginal
risk of severe weather along and east of a line from Luverne Alabama
to Pensacola Florida remains in place through late afternoon for
portions of the northwest Florida panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-042000-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-
155 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ670-675-042000-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
155 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.