Alert archive / Florida / High Surf Advisories in 2020

High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Mobile, AL

January 9, 2020Baldwin County, Mobile County, Alabama; Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida

NWS Mobile, AL issued this high surf advisory at Jan 9, 2020, 2:50 PM CST for Baldwin County, Mobile County, Alabama; Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida. It took effect at Jan 9, 2020, 9:00 PM CST. It was in force for 30 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 9, 2020, 2:50 PM CST (20:50 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 9, 2020, 9:00 PM CST
Expired
Jan 11, 2020, 3:00 AM CST
In force
30 hr
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2020-01-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2020-01-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 141 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1022 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
141 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
214 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

672 
WHUS44 KMOB 092050
CFWMOB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile AL
250 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-100500-
/O.NEW.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.SU.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0002.000000T0000Z-200113T1200Z/
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
250 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to
  8 feet. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal flooding 
  expected. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...In Alabama, Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal 
  Counties. In Florida, Escambia Coastal, Santa Rosa Coastal and 
  Okaloosa Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, from 9 PM Friday to 
  midnight CST Saturday night. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 
  from 9 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday. For the High Rip 
  Current Risk, through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and 
  surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents 
  can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper 
  water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

ALZ263-264-100500-
/O.NEW.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0000Z/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
250 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Mobile Central and Baldwin Central Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
290 
WHUS44 KMOB 100259
CFWMOB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile AL
859 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-101200-
/O.NEW.KMOB.SU.W.0001.200111T0900Z-200112T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.SU.Y.0001.200110T0300Z-200111T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0002.000000T0000Z-200113T1200Z/
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
859 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO
6 PM CST SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves will
  continue to build to 4 to 6 feet tonight through Friday. For the
  High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves will build
  to 8 to 10 feet by Saturday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 
  minor coastal flooding expected. For the High Rip Current Risk, 
  dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...In Alabama, Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal 
  Counties. In Florida, Escambia Coastal, Santa Rosa Coastal and 
  Okaloosa Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, from 3 AM to 9 PM CST 
  Saturday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 9 PM Friday to 
  6 PM CST Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 3 AM CST 
  Saturday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Sunday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected. Breaking waves can sweep people off
  jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening 
  swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be 
  expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening
surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside
infrastructure.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

ALZ263-264-101200-
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0000Z/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
859 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO
6 PM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Mobile Central and Baldwin Central Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$
515 
WHUS44 KMOB 101051
CFWMOB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile AL
451 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-102100-
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.W.0001.200111T0900Z-200112T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0002.000000T0000Z-200113T1200Z/
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
451 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves will
  continue to build to 4 to 6 feet today. For the High Surf 
  Warning, dangerously large breaking waves will build to 8 to 10 
  feet by Saturday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal 
  flooding expected. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip 
  currents are expected.

* WHERE...In Alabama, Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal 
  Counties. In Florida, Escambia Coastal, Santa Rosa Coastal and 
  Okaloosa Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, from 3 AM to 9 PM CST 
  Saturday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 9 PM Friday to 
  6 PM CST Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 3 AM CST 
  Saturday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Sunday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Breaking waves can sweep 
  people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-
  threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion 
  can be expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers 
  away from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening
surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside
infrastructure.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

ALZ263-264-102100-
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0000Z/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
451 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Mobile Central and Baldwin Central Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$
738 
WHUS44 KMOB 102012
CFWMOB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile AL
212 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-110415-
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.W.0001.200111T0900Z-200112T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0002.000000T0000Z-200113T1200Z/
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
212 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking
  waves of 8 to 10 feet. For the High Surf Advisory, large 
  breaking waves of 4 to 7 feet. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 
  minor coastal flooding expected. For the High Rip Current Risk, 
  dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...In Alabama, Baldwin Coastal and Mobile Coastal 
  Counties. In Florida, Santa Rosa Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal and 
  Escambia Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, from 3 AM to 9 PM CST 
  Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 3 AM CST Saturday. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM 
  CST Saturday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late 
  Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Breaking waves can sweep 
  people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-
  threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion 
  can be expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers 
  away from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening
surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside
infrastructure.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

ALZ263-264-110415-
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0000Z/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
212 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Baldwin Central and Mobile Central Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$
591 
WHUS44 KMOB 110346
CFWMOB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile AL
946 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-111215-
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.W.0001.200111T0900Z-200112T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0002.000000T0000Z-200113T1200Z/
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
946 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking
  waves of 8 to 10 feet. For the High Surf Advisory, large
  breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet building to 8 to 10 feet on
  Saturday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal 
  flooding expected. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...In Alabama, Baldwin Coastal and Mobile Coastal 
  Counties. In Florida, Santa Rosa Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal and 
  Escambia Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, from 3 AM to 9 PM CST 
  Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 3 AM CST Saturday. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 6 PM CST Saturday. For 
  the High Rip Current Risk, through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Breaking waves can sweep 
  people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-
  threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion 
  can be expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers 
  away from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening
surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside
infrastructure.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

ALZ263-264-111215-
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200112T0000Z/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
946 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding.

* WHERE...Baldwin Central and Mobile Central Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high surf advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high surf advisory went out at Jan 9, 12:12 PM CST, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 9, 12:12 PM CST, 2 hours 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1212 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tomorrow/...Synoptically, the developing
mid- and upper system advances and the surface pressure gradient
force continues to increase as strong sfc high pressure is to our
east and deepening surface low pressure is evolving to our west.
Due to both positive pressure and moisture advections, clouds
thicken and lower and the weather becoming gradually windier
overnight through tomorrow afternoon. A mild night with
temperatures mainly in the 60s to near 70 deg(F) along the coast
(i.e., very well mixed). Some interior areas of Crenshaw and
Butler counties may reach upper 50s deg(F)before stalling and
then slowly rising. A Wind Advisory will be issued beginning mid
morning tomorrow (likely beginning along the coast and then
expanding inland as day progresses). We are also considering a
High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory just beyond this
period (more later). /23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Mostly VFR through the period. Two primary cloud
layers gradually advance into the region (while lowering) during
this TAF period. Both mid- and high clouds with bases AOA 9500 ft
with a scattered layer below, generally 3500 to 4500 feet spread
in from the southwest and thickens through early Friday. A few
rainshowers west of I-65 anytime after 09Z - generally. This
slowly advances east tomorrow afternoon. There may be some MVFR
conditions due to both CIGs and VSBYs west of the I-65 corridor
after midnight. Closer to the coast, some low marine stratus west
of KPNS may cause local IFR conditions due to cigs. An east
southeast wind continues to increase overnight and remains
generally gusty - wind gusts to 30 knots occasionally by tomorrow
afternoon and also gustier closer to the coast. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Expect VFR conditions through 10.03z followed by
mostly MVFR cigs through 10.12z. Expect increasing low to mid
clouds later today and tonight ahead of a approaching cold front
that moves across the region late Sat. Low cigs with showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front late Fri through Sat
with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Gusty
southerly winds and possible LLWS can be expect also ahead of the
front mostly Fri night through Sat afternoon. Winds will become
mostly southeast at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts late this
morning through tonight. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A broad upper trof over
much of the western conus will begin to dig as its tracks east of
the Rockies today in response to a strong upper jet max of 100 to
150 kts diving southward reaching the base of the upper system by
around 12z Fri. To the east a broad upper ridge of high pressure
generally located over lower part of the western Atlantic mostly
east of the FL peninsula will move little through tonight. Near
the surface a broad surface ridge that covered much of the
northern gulf states and forecast area yesterday has shifted east
to the eastern seaboard tracking northeast off the NE coast by
early Fri. This pattern will continue to lead to increased onshore
flow today and tonight leading to better moisture content in the
boundary layer this afternoon and tonight resulting in mostly
cloudy skies by mid afternoon followed by a thickening cloud deck
from 1.5k to about 8k this evening and overnight. Model soundings
show better vertical shear from 0 to 3km also overnight with a
warm nose still present aloft generally around 10k ft. As a result
rain chances will increased late today and tonight mostly from
increased insentropic lift west of the surface ridge to the east
with the best coverage of mostly light rain with embedded showers
occurring over the western half of the forecast area beginning
later this evening continuing through 12z Fri. With dewpoint temps
climbing to the lower 60s by 12z Fri some patchy fog may begin to
develop along the immediate coast by around sunrise Fri followed
by better coverage near the coast late Fri in Sat.

Temperatures will be warmer today running about 6 to 8 degrees above
seasonal norms followed by lows tonight running 15 to 20 degrees
above seasonal norms due to increased warm air advection ahead of an
approaching cold front from the west. Highs today will range from
the middle to upper 60s for most locations followed by lows ranging
from the upper 50s to lower 60s to the north and east inland from
the coast and the lower to middle 60s near the immediate coast.
32/ee

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...An amplifying mid
and upper level trof over the western states early Friday advances
east to the lower Mississippi River Valley area by midday
Saturday and takes on a slightly negative tilt as it moves into
the southeastern states by the end of the day on Saturday. A
significant weather event looks likely, possibly beginning late
Friday night and continuing through much of the day on Saturday.

On Friday, a strong expansive ridge will be centered over the
southwestern Atlantic as a deep upper trough digs into the
southern Great Plains region. With strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft, moisture will quickly begin to stream northward. At
the surface, high pressure off the mid-atlantic coast will lead to
increasing southerly flow. A surface warm front will begin to
surge northward late Friday afternoon into Friday night. By late
Friday night, most of the forecast area is expected to be in the
moist, unstable warm sector of the approaching weather system.
Showers will be possible in the strengthening isentropic ascent
in the warm sector, and given the presence of MLCAPE values
around 500 to near 1000 J/KG late in the night, and 40 to 50 knots
surface to 500 MB Bulk Shear, will be enough for some embedded
thunderstorms late Friday night, a few of which could possibly be
severe.

As the mid/upper trough takes on the slight negative tilt as it moves
into the Arklatex region Saturday morning, and on into the Tennessee
Valley region by Saturday afternoon, a stout 500 mb jet rounds
the base of the trough and overspreads the warm sector. A surface
cyclone develops over the Arklatex region and northeast toward the
Illinois/Indiana area by late afternoon. An accompanying cold
front will surge east across our forecast area during the the
course of the day and into the early evening hours. A strong line
of thunderstorms (QLCS) will likely develop just ahead of the cold
front and move east across our area during the day on Saturday.
There could be a threat of severe weather with any discrete
storms that develop out ahead of the main QLCS. With the warm
sector surging north during the day, most models show MLCAPE of
around 800 to 1000 J/KG, and some models even indicate MLCAPE
possibly as high as 2000 J/KG. Simultaneously, a robust 850 low-
level jet of 65 to 70 knots will result in 0-1KM SRH values of
300-400 M2/S2. As a result, any discrete storms that do develop
could pose a significant tornado risk. With the very strong
dynamics in place, a significant damaging wind event could be
accompany the QLCS. There is now an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms across all of interior southeast Mississippi,
southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle on Saturday.
A period of heavy rainfall will accompany the QLCS as well. Some
thunderstorms could linger over the eastern portions of our
forecast area into Saturday evening, but by that point most of the
stronger dynamics should be lifting out to the north and the
severe threat will be diminished.

Daytime highs both Friday and Saturday in the 70s. Lows Friday
night in the 60s, but cooling into the 40s and 50s Saturday night
in the wake of the cold front.

/12

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The front that moves
through the area on Saturday is expected to stall out over the
northern Gulf late Saturday night and early Sunday, before lifting
inland as a warm front late Sunday and remain quasi-stationary
over the southeastern States through Wednesday. Simultaneously, a
series of shortwave will periodically move across the area in the
persistent southwesterly flow aloft. With this an unsettle weather
pattern will continue, with chance to likley PoPs continuing for
most of the long term (after a brief period of low PoPs from late
Saturday night and early Sunday). Minor flooding continues for
several rivers in southeast Mississippi and Southwest Alabama.
Most rivers will be cresting within the next day or so; however,
the upcoming pattern is supportive of several rounds of rain
through next week. PWAT values will range from 1.5 to 2 inches
through the weekend leading to potentially heavy rainfall over
already saturated grounds. Several of our mainstream rivers are
already swollen and any heavy precip within the basins could lead
to continued flooding. We will also have to monitor for the
potential of flash flooding, especially on Saturday with any
training cells.

Daytime highs in the 60s and a few lower 70s Sunday and Monday,
warming into the 70s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday. Nighttime
lows moderating from the low 50s to low 60s Sunday night to the
low to mid 60s Tuesday night.

/12

MARINE...A moderate to strong east to southeast wind flow will
continue to develop today and tonight ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. Frequent gusts to near gale force will be
possible by Sat due to a strong low level jet of 50 to 60 knots
merging with the strong onshore near the surface. As a result Small
Craft levels can be expected across the entire marine area by late
Fri afternoon continuing through Sat afternoon. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with this pattern by
late Fri continuing through Sat afternoon with a few strong to
severe storms possible especially during the day on Sat. A light to
moderate west to northwest flow is expected in the wake of the cold
front Sat night through early Sun becoming east late Sun through
early next week. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 9, 9:32 AM CST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
932 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-101545-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
932 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a HIGH RISK for rip currents along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and Northwest Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms with damaging straightline winds and
tornadoes will be likely Saturday over the entire area, possibly
beginning late Friday night over southeast Mississippi. Stay
tuned for further updates through Saturday afternoon.

Gusty southerly winds at 20 to 30 mph will be likely late Friday
night through Saturday. A wind advisory may be required on
Saturday.

There is a HIGH RISK for rip currents along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and Northwest Florida through Sunday. Heavy surf along the
Gulf beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida will also be likely
on Saturday. Some coastal flooding will also be possible by late
Saturday mostly during high tide, occurring in low lying areas
along the Gulf beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida including
all inland bays and sounds.

Conditions also favor periods of heavy rain on Saturday, possibly
resulting in some localized flooding, and will likely prolong the
current river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks will likely be
needed Saturday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-101545-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
932 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected through tonight.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the open Gulf waters from
0 to 60 nm out through tonight. Small Craft Should Exercise
caution over all inland bays and sounds through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue over the marine
area Friday through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will
continue over the open Gulf waters from 0 to 60 nm through
Saturday afternoon. A small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
bays and sounds beginning late Friday afternoon and continuing
through Saturday afternoon.

Gusty southerly winds at 20 to 30 mph with frequent higher gusts will
be likely late Friday night through Saturday. Gale conditions will
be possible mostly during the day on Saturday. Stay tuned for
further updates.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 9, 2:50 PM CSTCoastal Flood AdvisoryMOBBaldwin, Mobile42 hr
Jan 9, 2:56 PM CSTWind AdvisoryMOBBaldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington and 6 more48 hr

Nearby

High Surf Advisories in Florida, 2020High Surf Advisories in Alabama, 2020Every high surf advisory in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.