Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
352 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight/Wed...A moist and deep SE flow will continue keeping
temperatures quite mild, holding in the mid 70s tonight for lows.
Additional showers have developed across southern sections this
afternoon after some clearing occurred behind the morning
convection. While these should decrease with loss of daytime
heating, another more organized band of rain appears to be forming
over SE FL which may lift north into our southern counties this
evening. So have drawn highest PoPs across the south this evening
spreading northward with time overnight. On Wed, the morning may
be quiet with only isolated showers. But daytime heating will lead
to an increase in coverage of showers and a few storms by
afternoon. Another very humid day expected with above normal
temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s.

Have extended the High Surf Advisory through Wed aftn to capture 2
more high tide cycles as seas will only slowly subside to 8 ft at
NOAA buoy 009.

Thursday-Friday...Latest 12Z guidance indicates the mid-level ridge
in the far western Atlantic retreats as a mid/upper trough moves
across the TN Valley and Carolinas. The initial trough does not dig
south enough to pull T.S. Eta northward, instead leaving Eta to
meander in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. By late Thursday, a
secondary reinforcing front moves into the area, causing Eta to be
swept northeast across northern Florida, before merging with the
front. This is a complex scenario with many factors at play, making
the late week forecast very uncertain. Even though wind shear is
forecast to increase as Eta approaches the FL Big Bend, it remains
to be seen if the storm will weaken significantly before coming
onshore. Follow the latest updates on Tropical Storm Eta from the
National Hurricane Center.

Deep tropical moisture will fuel a high chance of rain (40-60%), and
a few lightning storms on Thursday. By Friday, dry air moves into
the region bringing rain chances down to around 20%, but this is
very uncertain. Regardless of Eta, south/southwest winds will make
for hot, well above normal, and likely near record temperatures
across east-central FL on Thursday/Friday. Highs are forecast in the
mid to upper 80s each afternoon. Overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...The Atlantic ridge builds back across Florida
this weekend, bringing in dry air and mostly dry conditions. Still,
temperatures remain above normal as highs reach the mid 80s along
the coast, and mid/upper 80s inland. On Monday the ridge is forecast
to collapse ahead of a strong cold front, which passes through the
area Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures return to normal values
for mid-November, with highs around 80 and lows around 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
E/SE winds 5-10 knots tonight interior terminals and 10-15 knots
at coastal terminals. Another round of scattered to numerous SHRA
with isold TSRA should lift northward across southern terminals
early this evening then the remaining terminals overnight. TEMPO
MVFR conds expected with this activity. On Wed, SHRA coverage
looks to be initially sparse in the morning then increase in
coverage by afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight/Wed...SE pressure gradient will exist between TS Eta west
of the Keys and high pressure over the western Atlc and support
wind speeds of 15-20 knots with higher gusts especially in fast
moving showers and isold storms. Seas will remain 6-8 feet
nearshore and 8-10 ft offshore. Small Craft Advisory will
continue.

Thursday-Friday....Hazardous boating conditions persist with SE
winds 15-20 knots and seas 5-7 feet on Thursday, which diminish to
15 knots and 5-6 feet on Friday. The late week forecast remains
uncertain due to Tropical Storm Eta, and will depend on where the
storm is.  Scattered to numerous showers and a few lightning storms
are possible, especially north of Sebastian Inlet. There remains
high uncertainty as Tropical Storm Eta will approach and move across
north/north-central Florida late week into the weekend.

Saturday-Sunday...More favorable boating conditions locally, south
winds 10-15 knots as high pressure builds back over central Florida.
Dry conditions with seas 3-4 feet, with up to 5 feet far offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  85  74  85 /  40  30  30  50
MCO  75  87  75  86 /  50  40  20  50
MLB  76  85  76  84 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  77  86  77  86 /  50  30  30  40
LEE  74  87  75  85 /  40  40  20  60
SFB  75  87  75  86 /  50  40  20  60
ORL  76  88  76  86 /  50  40  20  60
FPR  75  85  75  84 /  50  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for Coastal Volusia-
     Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St.
     Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Rodriguez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
830 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-110000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
830 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
High surf conditions are expected to continue today, with breaking
waves up to 7 feet in the surf zone. Additional beach erosion will
be possible around the time of high tide between 3 and 330 PM.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Weather and ocean conditions will result in a High Risk for
dangerous rip currents at area beaches today. Entering the water
is not recommended again today due to the dangerous surf and rip
current conditions.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Showers and a few lightning storms will be possible today and into
tonight. Brief heavy downpours, occasional to frequent lightning,
and wind gusts around 40 mph will be possible in any storms which
move quickly onshore from the Atlantic and inland.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Gusty winds are likely in onshore moving showers today. Wind
gusts of around 35 knots will be possible.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rain will produce a quick one to two inches in bands
that push onshore the Treasure coast this morning and well inland
toward Okeechobee county. Ponding of water will occur in low lying
and urban areas. Where the ground is saturated, any additional
rainfall will quickly become runoff, especially in Martin and Saint
Lucie counties. Other heavy showers will spread north and northwest
up the coast and inland across the Orlando metro area.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Hazardous boating conditions will continue over the Atlantic
waters today with winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
possible. Seas 8 to 12 feet today, before slowly subsiding to 7 to
10 feet tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Conditions are expected to continue improving Wednesday as Eta
pulls away from the area. However, breezy southeast winds will
remain across all of east central Florida on Wednesday.

Even after Tropical Storm Eta pulls farther away from the area
through midweek, conditions will remain hazardous at area beaches
choppy surf, life-threatening rip currents and an unusually strong
northward flowing longshore current through late week. Boating
conditions will also remain hazardous through Thursday.

Above normal coverage of showers and storms is also expected
through Thursday, mainly during the afternoon. Brief gusty winds,
torrential downpours, and cloud to ground lightning strikes will be
the main storm threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. Please
report any rainfall amounts in excess of two inches to the
National Weather Service in Melbourne.

Kelly/Watson

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