Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Weak high pressure with associated weak gradient
continues to lie across the area. Aloft, weak mid-level troughing
along the southeast U.S. coast and north FL will continue to slowly
sink southward overnight into the central FL peninsula. Deep
moisture, PWATs around 2 inches or higher, will continue residency
over ECFL. Afternoon temperatures are topping out in the U80s to
L90s near the coast and L-M90s interior with heat index readings
between 101 and 105 areawide.

Both east/west coast sea breezes are slowly pushing inland this
afternoon. Local HRRR playing catch-up to current convection viewed
on radar, but is finally realizing increased coverage across ECFL
later in the day and early evening. Expect showers and lightning
storms to increase in both coverage and intensity with numerous
boundary collisions thru late today. The steering flow remains light
westerly but stronger boundary interactions will create erratic
movement at times. Highest precip chances will remain Cape northward
and generally well inland of the Treasure Coast. Expecting some
convection to push back toward the Volusia coast and perhaps the
Brevard coast, too, later today. Suspect we will see convection wind
down through mid-late evening with rain/cloud debris slowly thinning
thereafter. The previously mentioned mid-level trough will likely
stir some convection up overnight across the local coastal waters
and may see an isolated shower near/along the coast late overnight.

The main storm threats remain frequent-excessive lightning strikes,
strong wind gusts up to 45 to 55 mph, small coin-size hail, and
locally heavy rainfall due to slow storm motion. Isolated rainfall
amounts of 2-3 inches in a 60-90 minute period remain possible.
Minor, nuisance flooding possible of low-lying areas, some roadways,
and any areas that have received abundant rainfall recently.

Overnight lows continue mild and generally in the 70s.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified...

Wed-Thu night...High pressure over the north Atlantic will stretch
southwest towards the Florida peninsula at the lower and mid levels.
The ridge will remain over central FL through the period, keeping a
general wind flow from the south with variations across the forecast
area depending on where the axis extends. An area of higher moisture
over the southeast U.S. will keep rain chances high, especially in
the afternoon and early evening. For Wed, the ridge axis is forecast
to be over the Cape slightly shifting south in the afternoon,
providing a SW flow to the north of the Cape. Highest storm coverage
(60-70pct) is then expected from the interior towards Volusia and
Brevard counties in the afternoon, but 40-50pct for the remainder of
east central FL. For Thu afternoon, the ridge will be across the
Cape; showers and lightning storms are expected to develop over the
coastal counties and push inland towards Volusia and Lake counties.
Highs on both days are expected to reach the lower 90s with heat
indices in the upper 90s/lower 100s.

Fri-Mon...The aforementioned area of moisture that will be over
southeast U.S. by mid-week will get pushed to the northeast as an
area of low pressure develops over the mid-Atlantic states late on
Fri. Models differ on the intensity of this low from Sat onward.
This will affect the ridge extending from the Atlantic and its
affects on ECFL. Regardless of this, both GFS/ECMWF models indicate
that moisture will remain over the peninsula and with diurnal
heating and adequate instability, active weather will be possible
every afternoon. The distribution of the coverage will depend on the
position of the ridge on each day. Highs will remain consistent,
warming to the lower-mid 90s with lows dropping to the 70s each
night.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected outside of convection. IFR-
MVFR in/around mainly afternoon-evening showers/lightning storms as
both East-West coast sea breezes advance inland. The mid-level
trough north of the area is promoting additional lift as is noted on
radar with higher coverage along/north of I-4. Activity will
increase in both coverage and intensity as the sea breezes venture
inland and into the interior this afternoon and early evening. A few
strong/severe storms possible over the interior and perhaps
northward across the Brevard/Volusia coasts. Threats to aviation
include torrential downpours, frequent lightning, small hail, and
wind gusts in excess of 35 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Afternoon-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions continue
outside of lightning storms across inland lakes and along/near the
east coast. Onshore flow will become offshore again this evening
through the overnight near the coast and gradually southerly to SW
further offshore. The light offshore steering flow will bring some
activity back to the Brevard/Volusia coasts this afternoon/early
evening. Seas 1-2 ft, but both winds/seas locally higher invof
storms.

Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Wed-Thu night...A ridge extending from the north Atlantic towards FL
will keep a southerly flow of 5-10 kt across the waters for most of
the period. A sea breeze will develop each afternoon, backing winds
to the southeast and increasing speeds to near 10 kt along the coast
and nearshore waters. On Wed, storms developing over land will have
a chance to reach the Atlantic waters in the late afternoon/evening
with less coverage on Thu due to a more southeast steering flow,
pushing most of the activity inland. Wave heights outside of storms
will range 1-2 ft.

Fri-Sat...A similar pattern as Wed and Thu is expected for Fri and
Sat. The ridge will remain over the area, providing a southerly flow
over the waters. Then in the afternoons with the development of the
sea breeze, winds along the coast and over the nearshore waters will
shift toward the southeast and increasing to near 10 kt on Fri and 7-
10 kt on Sat. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Little Wekiva River near Altamonte Springs latest
observed value is 27.43 ft at 2:30PM and continues a very slow rise
toward Action Stage (27.5 ft). Any additional localized heavy
rainfall from afternoon-evening lightning storms may lead to quick
river rises into Action Stage at this site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  90 /  40  70  40  70
MCO  76  93  76  93 /  40  70  40  70
MLB  77  90  76  90 /  20  60  30  50
VRB  77  91  75  90 /  20  50  30  50
LEE  76  93  76  93 /  40  70  30  70
SFB  76  94  75  93 /  40  70  40  70
ORL  77  93  76  93 /  40  70  40  70
FPR  76  92  76  91 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

ALL FORECAST GRIDS...Sedlock
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....Volkmer
AVIATION...Sedlock
TRAINING...WATSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1050 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-120000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1050 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible
near the east central Florida coast as the sea breeze initially
develops and begins to move slowly inland early this afternoon.
However, greater storm coverage with increasing intensity is
expected over the interior from late afternoon through early evening
as sea breeze and storm outflow boundaries collide. Some storms may
be able to shift back toward the coast, north of the Cape late in
the day and toward sunset.

Some stronger storms will again be possible, with the main threats
including frequent to excessive lightning strikes, gusty winds up to
45 to 55 mph, small coin-size hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
However, localized damaging wind gusts around 60 mph and hail to
an inch in diameter is possible from a storm or two across the
interior.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Slow moving storms will have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall totaling 2 to 3 inches, mainly across the interior.
Temporary flooding of roads, and other poorly drained and low
lying areas may result, especially along to just west of the I-4
corridor from Seminole County through Orange and northwest Osceola
counties where heavy rainfall has already occurred over the past
couple days.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Wind gusts in excess of 35 knots will be possible this afternoon
in and close to lightning storms, mainly over the inland lakes.
However, a few storms may also shift back toward the coast and just
offshore, mainly north of the Cape later in the afternoon and early
evening.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Water levels along the Little Wekiva River near Altamonte Springs
remain elevated from heavy rainfall during the past couple days. Any
additional localized heavy rainfall from afternoon thunderstorms may
lead to quick river rises into Action Stage at this site later today
into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Above normal chances for showers and lightning storms expected
each afternoon through late week, especially across the interior.
Biggest threats will be frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Sedlock/Weitlich

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