Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
406 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon-Tonight...Another active afternoon across east
central FL. Temperatures had a chance to climb to the lower 90s
and with PWAT values of around 2 inches, afternoon convection had
the necessary ingredients to get going. As storms pushed
generally towards the east coast, the sea breeze as it was moving
westward, encounter these and several outflow boundaries enhancing
the storms over the coastal counties. As of 345 pm, these storms
were stretching from Volusia to St Lucie county, progressing
towards the Atlantic waters. Additional activity is still being
observed on radar west of Osceola that will continue to move east
bringing more showers and storms to Brevard, Orange and
consequently the Atlantic waters through late afternoon. As these
showers dissipate or move offshore, mostly cloudy skies will then
be observed with light rain lingering through the evening. After
midnight, skies will thin out and low temps will drop to the
lower-mid 70s.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion (modified)...

Tuesday-Wednesday...Subtropical ridge axis, currently over south
FL, will lift slightly northward into Tuesday, but should remain
near to south of Lake Okeechobee through mid-week. An area of low
pressure over southern Georgia will move to the northeast and
reach the coast of the Carolina and mid-Atlantic in the next few
days. These two features will maintain a local offshore flow
pattern, focusing greatest coverage of showers and storms toward
the eastern side of the Florida peninsula each afternoon. Deep
moisture (PWAT ~2 inches) will maintain higher rain chances for
Tuesday, around 60 percent. Then some drier mid level air and
influence of ridge aloft may decrease storm coverage slightly
across central and southern portions of the area on Wednesday,
with PoPs falling to around 50 percent.

Still, storm coverage will remain near to above normal, with a few
strong storms expected each day, especially toward the east coast
later in the afternoon as storms and outflow boundaries interact
with the east coast sea breeze. Frequent lightning strikes, strong
wind gusts up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches
will continue to be the main storm threats. Highs will reach the low
90s for most locations with overnight lows in the 70s.

Thursday-Sunday...Models continue to show surface low moving just
offshore of the Carolinas early Thursday, and then shifting N/NE
along to just offshore of the eastern U.S. seaboard from late week
into the weekend. A lingering frontal boundary will be left in the
wake of this low, remaining nearly stationary north of Florida. This
feature combined with a reinforcing trough across the eastern U.S.
will keep ridge axis south of the area and an continued offshore
flow pattern across the region.

Deeper moisture will gradually build back southward across central
Florida during this timeframe, with higher rain chances of 60-70
percent expected each day, as scattered to numerous afternoon storms
continue to develop and push eastward across the area and offshore
into early evening. An increase in W/SW low level winds through late
week and into the weekend may be enough to limit or prevent east
coast sea breeze development, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s
each day before convection and cloud cover increases across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing showers and storms along the I-4 corridor are pushing
eastward towards the Atlantic. Additional showers and storms will
be moving in from the west coast, heading towards the east and to
the Atlantic waters. Included MVFR conditions in a TEMPO group due
to reduced visibilities and lowering cigs as SHRA/TSRA will
affect most of the terminals starting from the inland/northern
sites (KLEE, KMCO, KSFB, KISM, and KDAB)starting at 18Z then
moving southward towards the coastal sites and Treasure Coast.
SHRA/TSRA are expected to dissipate after sunset. SW winds 5-10 kt
for the inland sites and SE winds 5-10 kts for the coastal sites
through this evening. VFR conditions expected outside of
convection through the TAF period. Tomorrow variable winds to
start off with, then becoming SW at 5-10 kt in the late morning
with coastal sites getting a SE/SSE seabreeze around 17Z. Included
VCTS for KLEE starting at 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon-Tonight...Outside thunderstorm activity or passing
outflows that will increase winds and seas locally through the
evening, winds will be from the south at 10-15 kt and returning
from a south to southwest flow later tonight. An Atlantic ridge
extending towards south FL today will slightly lift north tonight
but will retreat south again by Tue morning as a low pressure over
northwest FL shifts east.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion (modified)...

Tuesday-Friday...Ridge axis near or south of Lake Okeechobee will
remain in place through the work week, with S/SW winds Tue-Wed
becoming S/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
develops. Winds may then remain more offshore, especially north of
the Treasure Coast into late week as an increase in low level
W/SW flow develops. Wind speeds forecast to remain below 15 knots
with seas 1-3 feet, potentially increasing to 4 feet offshore by
late week.

Main threat to boaters will continue to be scattered to numerous
offshore moving storms producing frequent lightning strikes and
gusty winds, mainly from mid afternoon through early evening each
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  75  91 /  50  70  20  60
MCO  75  93  76  93 /  30  70  10  50
MLB  76  90  77  91 /  50  60  20  50
VRB  75  91  75  92 /  50  60  30  50
LEE  76  92  76  92 /  30  70  10  60
SFB  75  93  76  93 /  30  70  20  60
ORL  76  93  77  93 /  30  70  10  50
FPR  75  92  75  93 /  50  60  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Negron/Combs/Watson/Leahy