Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
210 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Conditions are warm and humid this afternoon with
heat indices approaching 100 degrees inland from the coast. The sea
breezes and subsequent mesoscale boundary collisions should allow
for isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area through
sunset, with highest chances generally south of Melbourne, though
the HRRR is favoring an evening collision across the I-4 corridor
which needs to be watches. Still, lower overall coverage than on
Fri. The deep WSW/W flow will only allow for slow inland movement of
the sea breeze, thus late day/evening convection favoring the
central/eastern peninsula. Storm motion mainly toward the east at
under 10 mph. Storm impacts include torrential downpours, occasional
to frequent lightning, gusty winds, and perhaps some small hail.

Activity will diminish later this evening with warm and muggy
conditions continuing as eventual low temps fall into the U60s to
M70s across ECFL. Winds will become L/V to calm most places.

Previous Extended Discussion...

Sunday-Monday...Surface ridge axis draped across central Florida
will provide light southerly flow with weak pressure gradient
allowing for both the west and east coast sea breezes to move
steadily inland each afternoon. Convection will be confined to
coastal areas early-mid afternoon before transitioning inland from
mid-afternoon into the evening hours.

On Sunday, some dry air aloft is expected to limit overall
convective coverage, but will also bring the potential for the more
robust storms that do manage develop to produce strong wind gusts
with DCAPE forecast to be between 1000-1200 J/kg. The late day sea
breeze collision will keep showers and storms going for a few hours
after sunset, and westerly steering flow aloft could bring some of
these back toward the coast. PoPs 20-30% along the coast and 30-40%
inland, except 40-50% across Osceola/Okeechobee where higher
moisture is forecast.

For Monday, a few showers will be possible along the coast in the
morning hours. Going into the afternoon, deeper moisture lifts back
northward across the area yielding higher coverage of showers and
storms, especially inland where more boundary interactions occur.
Models are showing cooler temperature aloft to around -9C at 500 mb
so will have to watch again for strong storms to develop with strong
wind gust potential and also small hail. PoPs 30-40% toward the
coast increase to 50-60% inland.

High temperatures will run a degree or two either side of 90 at the
coast and then lower to mid 90s across the interior. Overnight lows
lower to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Friday...Typical summertime weather with daily scattered
showers and lightning storms during the afternoon and evening hours.
Pattern generally favors highest PoPs across inland areas, but some
westerly steering flow aloft will allow for some push back of the
storms toward the east coast on Tuesday and especially Wednesday
where the sea breeze is not expected to reach as far inland.
Steering flow looks to become weaker by late week, and with even
slower storm motion, the potential for storms to produce locally
heavy rainfall further increases.

Max temps upper 80s to around 90 at the coast and lower 90s inland.
Overnight lows continue in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers/storms this afternoon will focus
across the interior areas, mostly south of Orlando, minimizing
impacts at terminals. Isolated storms will develop along the sea
breeze from KMLB-KSUA early-mid afternoon, added VCTS to these
sites. Then additional isolated showers around the inland areas
through sunset. Otherwise, coverage of showers/storms is too low to
warrant any TEMPO groups at this time. VFR conditions prevail
tonight into early Sunday, then another round of afternoon
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...Afternoon-Tonight...Continued favorable small craft
boating conditions overall. Seas around 2 ft near shore and 3 ft
well offshore. Onshore winds will become S/SSW again this evening
and overnight. ISOLD-WDLY SCT aftn/evening storms near the coast.
Winds/seas locally higher invof storms.

Previous Extended Marine Discussion...

Sunday-Monday...Storms that develop along the east coast sea breeze
will have potential to be pushed back toward and offshore of the
coast during the afternoons and evenings, so mariners will need to
watch for storms approaching from the west. Outside of showers and
storms, seas will continue to be in the 2-3 ft range providing
favorable boating conditions. Southerly winds around 10 kt will back
to the southeast on each afternoon and increase to 10-15 kt once the
sea breeze develops.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Southerly winds around 10 kt on Tuesday will
veer to SSW/SW on Wednesday due to the ridge axis getting nudged
southward. Boating conditions generally favorable with seas around 2
ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  72  92 /  10  20  10  40
MCO  73  95  74  95 /  20  50  10  60
MLB  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  10  40
VRB  72  90  73  91 /  20  30  10  40
LEE  74  95  74  95 /  20  30  10  50
SFB  74  95  74  95 /  20  30  10  50
ORL  75  95  76  95 /  20  50  10  60
FPR  71  91  72  91 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

ALL FORECAST GRIDS...Sedlock
RADAR....Kelly
AVIATION...Rodriguez

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
955 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-210000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
955 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to Scattered lightning storms will develop from early this
afternoon through the early evening hours. Activity will drift
slowly toward the east, with stronger storms capable of producing
gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph along with occasional to frequent cloud
to ground lightning, and heavy rain. Highest coverage of storms is
expected across Osceola County to around Lake Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast, including the adjacent near shore Atlantic waters.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Slow storm motion will bring the potential for locally heavy rain up
to 1 to 2 inches in a 60 to 90 minute period. The chance for heavier
rain and associated standing water will exist across Okeechobee
County to the Treasure Coast.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Ocean conditions will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at
area beaches. While rip currents will be present all day, the
risk will be highest from Noon through 5 PM due to tidal effects.
Always swim within sight of a lifeguard, and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Locally strong lightning storms will be capable of producing wind
gusts in excess of 34 knots and frequent lightning over the
Atlantic waters, Intracoastal Waterway, and also across inland
lakes. The highest threat will be south of a Lake Toho to
Sebastian Inlet line. Mariners should seek safe harbor when
storms threaten.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Scattered afternoon and early evening lightning storms are
forecast daily next week. Occasional to frequent lightning
strikes, torrential downpours, and gusty winds are the main
threats with any stronger storms which will develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon and tonight.

Pendergrast/Sedlock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     HAIL             5 NE CAMP HOLLY FISH CA 28.14N 80.69W
06/20/2020  E0.70 INCH       Brevard            FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF-DUTY NWS METEOROLOGIST REPORTS HALF INCH HAIL NEAR
            AURORA ROAD AND TURTLE MOUND ROAD.

&&

KR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
801 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             2 NW MELBOURNE          28.14N 80.66W
06/20/2020  M0.25 INCH       Brevard            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS PEA SIZED HAIL IN NORTH MELBOURNE
            IN LANSING RIDGE NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

KR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
807 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE INTERCESSION CITY 28.25N 81.46W
06/20/2020                   Osceola            FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS TREE DOWN ACROSS HAM BROWN ROAD NEAR
            HORIZON MIDDLE SCHOOL IN CAMPBELL. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

KR

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