Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
924 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Flood Watch Remains In Effect For All But Volusia County
Through This Evening...
...A Few Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon...

Update...The NWS Melbourne survey team is in process of determining
tornado rating, path length, and duration in several separate areas.

We will pass on information as we hear it from their findings.

Today-tonight...A very warm and moist atmosphere remains across the
region with deep moisture continuing to stream northward. Avbl short
range convective guidance indicates potential for a few strong
storms to develop from mid to late afternoon. More particularly along
the coast, while implying an east coast breeze boundary initiation
to storm potential. Affected locations may see wind gusty 40 to 50
mph along with briefly heavy rain and frequent lightning. A Flood
Watch remains in effect due to previous accumulations of rain in the
past few days and possibility of localized heavy rainfall
aggravating saturated soil.

By evening, coverage of showers and storms will decrease with light
to moderate rain in patches through the night. High temperatures
will climb to the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight will drop to the
mid 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...As "Cristobal" departs northward up the MS River
Valley Mon-Tue, mid level ridging will build over the eastern CONUS
and Florida, then link up with another building ridge to its west,
centered across Texas. The E-W orientation of the ridge will
eventually cause winds aloft to veer to NE by Wed. Deep moisture
with light S-SE surface flow will remain in place into mid week,
resulting in above normal coverage of diurnal showers/TS. The
Highest coverage (numerous/60 pct) will be over the interior, and
slightly lower (scattered/40-50) near the coast. Max temps in the
U80s along the coast/L90s inland Mon-Tue, dropping back by a couple
of degrees for Wed. Mins 70-75F.

&&

.AVIATION...
Outside brief MVFR cigs this morning, fair aviation conditions
through the morning. Then as SHRA coverage increases in the late
morning and TSRA in the afternoon, visibilities will be impacted in
moderate to heavy rain, and brief periods of gusty winds of 30 to 40
kt and frequent lightning. Especially along the coastal sites. By
evening, conditions should improve with isolated instances of low
cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...With Cristobal to our west over the gulf and an
Atlantic ridge to our east, the east central FL coastal waters will
remain in a southeast to south wind flow of 10 to 15 kt today and
tonight. Seas 2-4 ft except near any storm that could produce
locally higher seas and winds.

Monday-Thursday...Atlantic high pressure ridge will maintain
light/moderate SE-S flow through Wed, backing to easterly and
freshening some as a second high builds offshore the SE CONUS.
Showers/few TS decrease in coverage from early to mid week to
isolated-scattered. Seas 3ft or less.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for Indian River-Martin-
     Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-
     Seminole-Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

AM...None.

&&

JP/JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
945 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-080000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
945 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this morning
and afternoon, with higher coverage north of Okeechobee and
Brevard Counties. Storms will be capable of producing localized
gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and
higher rainfall amounts. Wind profiles also support the potential
for a couple of tornadoes as well.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will once again develop late
this morning and afternoon across the area, mostly north of
Okeechobee and Brevard Counties. New rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are possible, with locally higher amounts in stronger
thunderstorms or areas under persistent rainfall. The Flood Watch
remains in effect through this evening for most of east central
Florida except Volusia county.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the east central coastal
waters and inland lakes today will be capable of producing wind
gusts of 34 knots. Mariners should seek safe harbor when storms
threaten.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Conditions are favorable for the development of a few waterspouts
across the area again this afternoon. These waterspouts could
develop over large inland lake, rivers, the coastal waterways, and
adjacent Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected from Mon through the end of the week. Deadly cloud
to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds will be the primary
storm threats. Localized heavy rainfall will continue to pose a
flood threat, especially across areas that have seen excessive
rainfall over the past week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
308 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020

FLZ044-071945-
Northern Lake County-
308 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

At 308 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fruitland Park,
or over Leesburg, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Lady Lake, Lake Griffin, Lisbon and Emeralda.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8171 2878 8185 2878 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 207DEG 21KT 2884 8191

Combs