Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1019 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Today into this
Evening...

Strong to isolated severe storms that moved onshore the west
coast of Florida will continue east-northeast and will move into
Lake, western Orange and western Osceola counties late this
morning. This convection may weaken some before reaching these
areas, but strong wind gusts will still be possible. This
convection is moving in slightly earlier than expected and will
be increasing cloud cover into the late morning and early
afternoon. However, there should be enough daytime
heating/instability, combined with sufficient lift from
approaching vigorous mid level S/W trough to allow storms and
areas of rain to continue pushing through the area with additional
scattered to numerous storms development ahead of this activity
through the afternoon.

Strong to isolated severe storms will still be possible,
especially as any of these storms collide with the east coast sea
breeze should it develop from the Cape southward this afternoon.
Main impacts include frequent lightning, local wind gusts up to
50-60 mph, hail to one inch in diameter and torrential downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and storms are moving into faster and should
reach KISM-KLEE-KMCO by late this morning, with further eastward
movement and additional convective development through the
afternoon across the I-4 corridor and toward the coast. Tempo
groups will need to be adjusted earlier, especially for the
inland TAF sites for tempo IFR/MVFR conditions from this activity.
A few storms could still become strong to severe today. Cell
movement SW to NE at 20-30 kts and main impacts of frequent
lightning, hail, strong/gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...(Previous Discussion) Rather weak
pressure pattern across the area. General SWRLY winds across the
area will back along the coast in the afternoon with sea breeze
formation, though this feature will likely remained pinned near
the coast. Wind direction this evening (outside of any
convection), SE/S, then becoming more SSW by daybreak Tue morning.
Wind speeds AOB 15 kts, but may creep up to 14- 17 kts briefly
overnight, well offshore, north of the Cape. Seas 2-3 ft near
shore and 3-4 ft offshore north of Ft. Pierce. There will be a
vigorous upper level system traverse the area late day and into
tonight. The storm steering flow will be from the SW twd the NE at
25-35 kts with SCT-NMRS offshore moving storms forecast into the
afternoon and continuing tonight. Storm impacts include torrential
downpours, frequent lightning, hail, and wind gusts in excess of
35 kts, perhaps 50 kts. Winds/seas locally higher invof storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  68  88  66 /  60  50  30  10
MCO  88  68  90  67 /  70  50  50  10
MLB  88  70  91  69 /  70  60  70  10
VRB  88  69  91  68 /  70  60  70  20
LEE  87  69  89  68 /  70  50  30  10
SFB  90  68  90  67 /  70  50  40  10
ORL  88  70  90  67 /  70  50  50  10
FPR  88  70  91  69 /  70  60  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Weitlich/Negron

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1020 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

FLZ045-053-144-181515-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
1020 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE...SOUTHWESTERN
ORANGE AND CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM EDT...

At 1020 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Bushnell to 8 miles north of
Auburndale to near Wauchula. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Winter Garden, Saint Cloud, Groveland and Mascotte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 8196 2860 8169 2838 8136 2774 8095
      2768 8115 2782 8121 2786 8130 2792 8131
      2806 8146 2801 8138 2808 8135 2809 8145
      2814 8146 2814 8152 2826 8156 2827 8166
      2835 8166 2836 8186 2835 8186 2835 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 243DEG 28KT 2852 8209 2819 8184 2760 8179

KN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1126 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

FLZ045-046-053-181615-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-
1126 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM
EDT...

At 1125 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong showers adn
thunderstorms over Azalea Park and Narcoossee, moving northeast at
30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Oviedo, Winter Park, Wedgefield and Bithlo.

LAT...LON 2855 8140 2875 8110 2843 8090 2842 8090
      2841 8088 2839 8089 2838 8088 2837 8088
      2837 8087 2836 8087 2835 8086 2833 8086
      2822 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 232DEG 28KT 2853 8126

KN