Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
904 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Most of Central Florida Until 3
PM...

Today...Stronger storms are poised to enter the forecast area from
the north and west over the next couple hours. Isolated severe
storms could develop, with locally damaging winds and hail possible,
along with an isolated tornado. Windy ahead of the front with a
period of time for surface heating creating some additional
instability into the afternoon.

By late morning to early afternoon rain chances increase all the way
down to the Space Coast as the main frontal boundary moves into our
area. Scattered to numerous showers possible with embedded
stronger lightning storms.

Abundant moisture with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s and very
strong diurnal heating contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg.
Hodographs are mostly mostly unidirectional and straight-lined. The
biggest question mark is going to be forcing for convective
initiation as the main upper trough departs the area and the front
flattens out/weakens and slows once it reaches the I-4 corridor.

Environmental conditions are favorable for isolated severe storms,
with the main threat of damaging wind gusts, hail up to quarter
size, and deadly lightning strikes. The threat is greatest in
the watch area, from Brevard/Osceola Counties north.

A Lake Wind Advisory is in place for sustained southwest winds 20-25
mph with gusts up to 35mph into late afternoon. This also drives up
afternoon temperatures to record values in some areas.

Tonight...As previously mentioned, model guidance shows the
weakening frontal boundary slowing down between the Cape and
Treasure Coast. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms
linger into the evening hours. Though, there is considerable
uncertainty regarding how many storms will actually materialize
due to weak convergence along the front. As the front sags south
through the overnight, isolated to scattered showers possible from
Sebastian south. Again, there is high uncertainty with this
forecast as rain chances could be much less if front fizzles by
late evening. Winds decrease to 5-10mph after sunset and veer
west/northwest. Overnight lows in the low/mid 60s, except upper
60s in Martin County.

&&

.AVIATION...
Windy today, sustained southwest winds 20 knots and gusts up to 30
knots possible through the afternoon. A cold front moves in this
morning, bringing showers and some strong lightning storms. Highest
confidence in storm impacts at KDAB/KMCO/KSFB/KISM, with possible
early afternoon storms approaching KTIX/KMLB but confidence is lower.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Hazardous boating conditions today as a cold front
approaches the area, increasing the pressure gradient over all east
central Florida waters. This results in southwest winds 20-25 knots
with higher gusts. Seas 3-5 feet nearshore and 5-6 feet offshore.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters through 8
PM tonight. A few strong to severe storms possible from late
morning into the early afternoon. Main threats will be wind gusts
in excess of 40 knots, hail, and dangerous lightning strikes.

Tonight...The cold front weakens as it moves south of the Cape this
evening, winds diminish to 15-20 knots and seas drop to 3-4 feet
nearshore and 4-6 feet offshore. Small craft still need to exercise
caution tonight. Scattered showers and lingering lightning storms
possible from Sebastian Inlet south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for April 20th at a few sites.

                    RECORD
            DATE     HIGH
Melbourne   20-APR  91 1944
Vero Beach  20-APR  90 1968
Fort Pierce 20-APR  92 1968

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Severe thunderstorm watch for Coastal
     Volusia-Inland Volusia-Northern Brevard-
     Northern Lake-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern
     Brevard-Southern Lake-until 3 PM EDT.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Volusia-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-Northern Brevard-
     Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern
     Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

AM...Severe thunderstorm watch Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-until 3 PM EDT.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

JP/TES/KN/MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
732 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
732 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
3 PM...

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Numerous fast moving showers and strong lightning storms will move
eastward across east central Florida. Deadly lightning strikes
and potentially damaging wind gusts, along with a brief tornado
will be a threat within any strong to possibly severe storms
which may develop. Damaging winds up to 60 mph, and hail up to
quarter size. A brief tornado is possible within any cell which
may acquire rotation. The greatest risk for any severe storms will
be from Brevard and Osceola counties northward.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall of a half to one inch will be possible in
a brief period, leading to some nuisance flooding of low spots and
roadways.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at all east central
Florida beaches today, mainly due to an increasing short period
swell. While dangerous rip currents will be present all day, the
risk will be greatest from 10 AM to 4 PM due to tidal effects.
Swim only within sight of a lifeguard. If no lifeguard is present,
don't enter the surf. Be aware that beach closures remain in
effect for some communities.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered strong lightning storms will push offshore during the
day. As these storms cross the coast and nearshore waters most
will be capable of wind gusts in excess of 35 knots. If a severe
storm develops, there is a chance of wind gusts up to 50 knots.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A brief waterspout is possible within any cell which may acquire
rotation.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Southwest winds up to 20 knots over the nearshore waters, and 20
to 25 knots with higher gusts over the offshore waters. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for all local waters through 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Drier weather is expected during mid week before a chance for
storms returns late in the week. A Moderate risk of rip currents
is expected at all east central Florida beaches through mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

KR/JP

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