Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Melbourne, FL

844 
WHUS72 KMLB 302039
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
339 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020

AMZ550-302145-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200130T2100Z/
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
339 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Small craft should still exercise caution for northeast winds 15
to 20 knots and seas up to 6 feet. 

$$

AMZ570-572-310900-
/O.CON.KMLB.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200131T0900Z/
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
339 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots gusting up to 25 knots
  this evening becoming east around 15 knots tonight. Seas 
  building to 6 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Flagler Beach to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wind and wave conditions will be hazardous for small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

079 
WHUS72 KMLB 310859
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
359 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

AMZ570-572-311500-
/O.EXT.KMLB.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200131T1500Z/
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
359 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...East to Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas up to 7 feet
  this morning.

* WHERE...Flagler Beach to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wind and wave conditions will be hazardous for small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
820 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Current/Overnight...A fast moving band of showers associated with an
upper level wave and its associated sfc low center is beginning to
impact the southern zones. Rainfall will move across the region over
the next 3 to 5 hours. A few lightning strikes will be possible from
around Vero Beach, south to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
Brief moderate to heavy rain and wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will
also be possible in heavier showers and isolated storms through the
early morning hours.

Tonight-Thu...The low pressure will continue its drift, reaching the
Atlantic waters after midnight. By Thu morning, coverage and
intensity of showers is forecast to decrease with only a few
possible in the afternoon mainly north of Osceola and Brevard.

By Thu morning, winds will be generally from the north and turning
from the northeast by afternoon around 10 mph. Expect higher gusts
at the coast, depending on proximity of wind gradient as low draws
away from the area during Thu. Temps tonight will cool to the lower
to mid 50s across most of east central FL, except with the coastal
communities of the Treasure Coast where lows will remain in the
upper 50s/around 60. On Thu, these will warm to the lower to mid 70s.

Friday-Saturday (modified)...A couple of potent short wave troughs
will carve out a deepening trough over the central U.S. Friday,
extending from the Northern Plains extending all the way into
Mexico. Both GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement showing the
southern short wave trough retrograding SW over northern Mexico/Baja
while a much more progressive short wave trough deamplifies as it
pushes across the southeast U.S. In response, the models show a weak
sfc low developing over the Gulf of Mexico that crosses Florida Fri
night.

Deeper moisture will overspread the area Friday with a 30 percent
chance of showers. The broad sfc low will push across the peninsula
Friday night bringing scattered to numerous showers with isolated
lightning storms across southern sections. The highest rain chances
(60 percent) and best chance for a few storms will be from
Okeechobee to the Treasure coast. Have lowered rain chances slightly
Orlando northward to 40-50 percent.

Scattered showers will linger into Saturday morning especially
across southern sections before the deepening low along the mid Atlc
coast sweeps a cold front through the area in the late afternoon
and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to ocnl moderate showers (mostly light) will affect terminals
mainly south of MLB-ISM overnight briefly reducing visibilities and
cig. After midnight, cloud bases will lower to 010-015 north of KISM
and KMLB and at times could drop below 010. These should lift after
sunrise. Variable winds overnight will increase to 10 kt in the
morning from the northeast with coastal sites DAB-TIX-MLB-VRB
gusting over 15kt aft 30/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Thu...Variable winds tonight will veer offshore around to
after daybreak. Both the GFS and Euro show 20 kt winds skiting the
northeast offshore waters east of Volusia on Thu morning. On the
same token, NWPS and WNWave4 indicate that 7 ft seas will reach the
offshore waters. However, these were capped in the forecast up to 20
kt and 6 ft respectively as these were for a short period of time
and it will be reevaluated in the midnight forecast update.
Regardless, operators of small crafts should exercise caution if
venturing east of the Volusia and Brevard late tonight into Thu.

Friday-Sunday...Another weak low will move from the Gulf and across
Florida Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of this system winds will
veer southeast and then south around 10-15 knots, then quickly
become west to northwest by Saturday afternoon. Expect high rain
chances from Friday afternoon into Friday night with a slight chance
of lightning storms mainly south of Sebastian Inlet.
The system will clear the area by Saturday afternoon, bringing in
dry conditions and stronger northwest winds Sat night and Sunday.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-301200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
720 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A fast moving band of showers associated with an upper level wave
will move across the region tonight. Within this band a few
lightning strikes will be possible from around Vero Beach, south
to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Brief moderate to heavy
rain and wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will also be possible into the
early morning hours Thursday.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Marine wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots will be possible in any
heavier shower or storm which moves east from the mainland,
mainly near and south of Sebastian Inlet overnight.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Gusty winds will develop over the Atlantic waters early Thursday
morning as low pressure develops over the open Atlantic east of
the state. Expect choppy and building seas, especially north of
St. Lucie inlet during Thursday. Current headlines may need to be
expanded for portions of the Atlantic waters on Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Long period swells are expected to keep the risk for dangerous rip
currents on Thursday. An isolated lightning storm threat will be
possible Friday night south of Melbourne as another Gulf low
pressure system moves across the southern peninsula.

A strong cold front will cross the waters early Saturday with a
period of northwest winds producing hazardous conditions especially
in the Gulf Stream this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Pendergrast